2012 Election Polls and Models (10/5/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 347; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 56.1% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 232; Democrats 206;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.8121122	5.684785263
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8906792	0.890679172
Arizona		11	7.3	20	0.6402785	5.762506265
Arkansas		6	21	6	0.8492739	3.397095768
California	55		-20	45	0.1625286	8.614017578
Colorado	9		-2.9	25	0.4432647	3.102852709
Connecticut	7		-13.7	39	0.2501171	1.250585733
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1625286	0.162528634
DC	3		-75	51	0.0001119	0.000111931
Florida	29	0	-3.2	27	0.4374416	11.81092257
Georgia		16	13.3	15	0.7435854	10.41019591
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0919966	0.183993198
Idaho		4	34	2	0.9528365	1.905672979
Illinois	20		-15	40	0.2302302	4.144144121
Indiana		11	12	17	0.7225626	6.503063094
Iowa	6		-3.7	28	0.4277671	1.71106827
Kansas		6	17	9	0.7985634	3.194253432
Kentucky		8	14	13	0.7545515	4.52730917
Louisiana		8	16	10	0.7844453	4.706672017
Massachusetts	11		-24	47	0.1188129	1.069315652
Maine	4		-15	40	0.2302302	0.460460458
Maryland	10		-19	44	0.1749167	1.399333485
Michigan	16		-8.8	36	0.332503	4.655041722
Minnesota	10		-8.4	34	0.3396825	2.717460124
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8121122	3.248448722
Missouri		10	7.3	20	0.6402785	5.122227791
Montana		3	10.3	18	0.6938598	0.693859794
Nebraska		5	12.5	16	0.7307471	2.192241265
Nevada	6		-3.8	30	0.4258372	1.703348694
New Hampshire	4		-3	26	0.4413222	0.88264443
New Jersey	14		-12.8	38	0.264401	3.172812043
New Mexico	5		-10	37	0.3113387	0.934016204
New York	29		-26.3	48	0.0978127	2.640943297
North Carolina	15	0	-1	24	0.4803776	6.24490874
North Dakota		3	15	11	0.7697698	0.769769771
Ohio	18		-5.6	31	0.3914456	6.263130251
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.923206	4.616029927
Oregon	7		-8.5	35	0.337882	1.689410218
Pennsylvania	20		-8	33	0.3469207	6.24457251
Rhode Island	4		-17	43	0.2014366	0.402873284
South Carolina		9	10	19	0.6886613	4.820628857
South Dakota		3	6	23	0.616093	0.616093023
Tennessee		11	7	22	0.6347428	5.712685603
Texas		38	15	11	0.7697698	27.71171176
Utah		6	42	1	0.9806164	3.922465479
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0343324	0.034332384
Virginia	13	0	-3.7	28	0.4277671	4.705437744
Washington	12		-15.3	42	0.2257698	2.257698395
West Virginia		5	14	13	0.7545515	2.263654585
Wisconsin	10		-7.8	32	0.350561	2.804488361
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9300519	0.930051903
			0
Total	347	191	20.3228		0.5026017	0.43876909
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.7639552				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.2788271				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	-3	7	0.4341012				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	1.4	4	0.5308631	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	12.4	3	0.7536103	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9735657				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0300078				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-3	7	0.4341012				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1226998				-1
			0
			18.0786		0.4837938		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	3.5	3	0.6144145			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-18.5	29	0.062108			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-2.4	17	0.420961			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	7	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-8.8	24	0.2323091			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	25	0.1593391			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	0	7	0.5			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-1.8	16	0.4405493	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	7	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13	27	0.1400097			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-23	30	0.0279858			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	7	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-5.3	22	0.3298164			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-28	30	0.0099893			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1.7	4	0.5561704	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	1	0.9211234	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	2	4	0.5659988			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-40	33	0.0004438			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-12.4	26	0.1514072			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-8	23	0.253094			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	2	0.6611086	Gain	1	-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-7.9	22	0.2557592			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-7.2	21	0.2748177			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	0	7	0.5			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	7	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	0	7	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	7	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	7	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-3.6	18	0.3824115			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	28	0.1309684			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0005959			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-5	19	0.3388914			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	6	0.5331132			1
			0
			12.034		0.3625268		2
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9597866
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9123239
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9663397
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	83	0.4088963
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9123239
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-5	3	-10	-10	-10	-5.9	105	0.2119797
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.5	93	0.3176352
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	109	0.1483565
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	71	0.5858307
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	101	0.2362989
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	7	5	5	5	10	5.7	51	0.7800811
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	114	0.1274825
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	15	10	7.6	41	0.8484847
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9561409
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.6	81	0.4141693
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	81	0.4141693
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	33	0.8780869
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	55	0.7334873
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.293881
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1714009
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	-5	-5	-2.2	86	0.3827962
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.6967158
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9165616
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	0	5	1.5	74	0.5805422
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3.1	89	0.3372012
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	46	0.8216156
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-14	-3	0	-10	-15	-7	107	0.1714009
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	0	4	0	-5	-5	-1.2	78	0.435407
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8725175
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	37	0.8667736
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	10	10	7	45	0.8285991
Florida 18	Murphy	West	5	1	0	5	5	2.7	68	0.6427822
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	18	0.9079277
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.293881
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	0	10	5	5	5	5	54	0.7509882
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-14	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8.4	114	0.1274825
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	98	0.2665127
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.3322656
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-7	-2	0	0	-5	-2.1	85	0.3879779
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6478259
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	13	-6	0	-5	-5	-1.9	84	0.3984007
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	5	10	6.4	48	0.8071198
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	52	0.767858
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	111	0.139146
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-5	-5	-15	-5.8	104	0.2159282
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6677344
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	56	0.7153851
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-9.5	9	-5	-5	-15	-4.15	96	0.2869183
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.0653874
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	5	0.9319832
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	106	0.1855445
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0876761
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	2.5	-7	0	-5	-5	-3.15	90	0.3347298
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9123239
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-9	3	0	0	-5	-1.3	79	0.4300776
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	8	6	10	10	15	9	28	0.8887078
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.8937625
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	50	0.7996095
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1165168
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	43	0.8354053
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	28	0.8887078
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	2	8	10	10	15	8.8	30	0.8834832
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	0	5	0.2	75	0.5108116
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	111	0.139146
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	5.7	7	10	10	10	7.97	39	0.8599509
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	17	2	5	10	10	7.1	44	0.8320244
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9206435
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0754276
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	19	0.9033703
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0680168
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8834832
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0876761
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-8.7	0	-5	-5	-10	-4.87	99	0.2546317
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0966297
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	12	5	5	5	5	5.2	53	0.7595036
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	11.5	2	0	0	5	2.55	69	0.6351698
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	16.5	-1	0	5	5	3.45	61	0.6799453
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	10	15	8.6	33	0.8780869
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	100	0.2447342
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-5.5	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.35	97	0.2777582
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-10	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8	111	0.139146
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	41	0.8484847
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	2	7	0	0	-5	0.6	74	0.5324032
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	9.5	6	15	15	15	11.15	4	0.9346126
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	71	0.5858307
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	-5	0	-5	-2.6	88	0.3622866
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-12	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	134	0.0645286
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9123239
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	5	5	2	70	0.6068203
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	8.5	-2	-5	-5	-5	-2.55	87	0.3648302
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	5	0.9319832
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	0	-5	3.1	65	0.6627988
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	-1.5	12	10	5	5	6.25	49	0.8015034
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	33	0.8780869
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	13	0.9123239
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.8962268
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.706119
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	46	0.8216156
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	77	0.4783846
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	10	5	10	7.8	40	0.8547579
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0876761
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	118	0.1112922
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	19	0.9033703
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	22	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.6	102	0.2239517
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	19	0.9033703
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	37	0.8667736
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6478259
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-7	6	0	-5	-5	-1.5	80	0.4194578
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9165616
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	23	0.8986493
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9165616
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.1452421
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.8937625
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	10	10	15	9.1	27	0.8912563
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0966297
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	-11	-13	0	-5	-5	-5.7	103	0.2199189
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9245724
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	19	0.9033703
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	-5	6	0	0	-5	-0.3	76	0.483785
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0966297
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	118	0.1112922
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-1	13	0	0	5	3.5	60	0.6823648
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.706119
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	121	0.1013507
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.3322656
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0773731
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	118	0.1112922
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8834832
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0876761
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9283513
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.1219131
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0920723
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	4	0	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6775181
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6775181