Saturday, June 28, 2014

Obama’s Ridiculous Foreign Policy

Let’s review Obama’s foreign policy blunders since becoming President (and of course following Obama’s U.S. apology tour and bowing to foreign leaders):

Russia – Putin laughs at Obama as he takes over the Crimea region of the Ukraine.

Syria – Unstable and currently in the middle of a revolution. What’s worse, Obama makes a deal with Putin and genocidal president Assad for Syria to destroy their chemical weapons. Thus far, Assad and Syria have failed to meet the chemical weapon treaty deadlines.

Libya – Obama went to war unilaterally against Qaddafi. Less than a year later weaponry used to arm the opposition force was used to attack Western sites including attacking the U.S. Embassy in Benghazi killing four Americans. To date, there have been no arrests and no one has been held accountable.

Afghanistan – Thousands of American soldiers have been killed or wounded under Obama’s watch. Yet, Obama is scaling down the U.S. effort to fight the Taliban and will be exiting the country in a losing effort.

Bin Laden – Obama successfully finds and kills Osama Bin Laden. However, Bin Laden was found with intelligence that was garnered during the Bush years that was uncovered using enhanced interrogation techniques.

Iraq – Obama inherits a stable democratic country from the Bush administration, but today terrorists are making huge inroads because Obama completely withdrew all U.S. troops.

Egypt – Obama supports a coup and today the country is unstable and mostly led by terrorist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood.

Bowe Bergdahl – Obama negotiates with terrorists and trades 5 Taliban generals for a U.S. deserter and traitor.

Iran and North Korea – Both rogue nations are closer to obtaining a nuclear bomb and long range missiles to transport them.

Drones – Obama has expanded the drone program which has resulted in the following: More dead civilians; less captured terrorists and therefore less intelligence; and Obama is the first President to order and kill U.S. citizens without due process.

Enemy Combatants – Enemy Combatants have more rights than U.S. soldiers (while U.S. soldiers must face military tribunals, enemy combatants are now tried in U.S. courts) and it was recently uncovered – better healthcare.

The White House outed the CIA station chief in Afghanistan. Remember, Scooter Libby went to jail for the outing of a CIA desk jockey in Virginia in the Bush Administration.

NSA – Obama was caught monitoring the phone conversations and emails of our allied leaders.

Honduras – Obama failed to support the 2009 coup which ousted President Zelaya for violating their Constitution.

Israel – Obama still has yet to visit our ally, the only Democratic nation in the Middle East. Still Obama has pushed for Israel, and only Israel, to make concessions in the Israel / Palestinian peace talks.

I am sure I missed a couple dozen more foreign policy blunders.

Thursday, June 26, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (6/27/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

7.2

13

0.7005107

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

19.5

5

0.9228102

1

Rep Gain

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0

24

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-10

33

0.2325805

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

24

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

2.7

16

0.578165

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

18

6

0.9056904

1

Rep Gain

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-9

30

0.255482

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

-9

30

0.255482

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

-24

35

0.0398096

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-33

36

0.0079711

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-9.5

32

0.2438862

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

24

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

24

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

1

18

0.5291119

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

23

4

0.9535079

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

10

9

0.7674195

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-2.2

28

0.4361717

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

3.2

15

0.5923988

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

14

7

0.8467337

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

10

9

0.7674195

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Brownback

1

18

0.5291119

1

Rep Hold

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-4

29

0.385086

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

7.6

12

0.7105817

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7

14

0.6954163

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

27

2

0.9756959

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

1

18

0.5291119

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

1

18

0.5291119

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

9.5

11

0.7561138

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-21.5

34

0.058172

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

1

18

0.5291119

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

27

2

0.9756959

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

1

0.9857786

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

12.6

8

0.8212848

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconis

Walker

2

17

0.5580689

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Mead

1

18

0.5291119

1

Rep Hold

1

0

13.6916

0.5686312

10

1

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

2

0.9992473

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

-6

31

0.351662

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

-1

27

0.474695

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

19

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Purdue

1.5

12

0.5379257

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Hanabusa

-4

29

0.3997897

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

0

19

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

19

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

55

1

0.9997594

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-5.8

30

0.3563834

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-11.5

34

0.232714

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

0

19

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

1.5

26

0.5379257

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

25

2

0.9437236

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Roberts

1

13

0.525305

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

17

6

0.8597149

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-1.7

27

0.457036

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

3

11

0.5755095

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-13

35

0.2046439

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

0

19

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Langford

1

14

0.525305

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Inhofe

1

14

0.525305

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

18

5

0.8733794

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

19

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

3

0.9437236

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

11

9

0.7574745

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

1

14

0.525305

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

1

14

0.525305

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-16

36

0.154918

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-10

32

0.2628026

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

10

10

0.7371974

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-10

32

0.2628026

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

15

7

0.8294752

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14.5

8

0.8213069

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

0

19

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

-0.8

26

0.4797511

-1

Dem Hold

-1

0

15.7548

0.5569402

0

3

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

25

0.7772172

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

3

0.9513739

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

39

0.4867709

Arizona 2

Barber

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

42

0.4735564

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

59

0.264294

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

74

0.0869427

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.3700713

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0635476

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

18

0.8837596

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0595191

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

34

0.6668254

California 25

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

15

0.896224

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

43

0.4472288

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.264294

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

63

0.2535599

California 36

Ruiz

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-10

-2.8

53

0.3212055

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

7

-2

0

0

5

1.3

37

0.5853432

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

49

0.4211319

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

68

0.103776

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

26

0.7569408

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4472288

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

10

0.9130573

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

6

0.9364524

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

49

0.4082048

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0453717

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

39

0.4867709

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.103776

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2752549

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

75

0.0769114

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

54

0.3094193

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

33

0.6905807

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-10

-10

-6.4

67

0.1442707

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

5

10

10

6.2

21

0.8480628

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

71

0.0923108

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4341445

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9076892

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

39

0.4867709

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-5

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.9

64

0.2082299

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-4

-5

-10

-10

-5.8

65

0.1680682

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.713565

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

27

0.7464401

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9277621

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

29

0.7247451

Michigan 11

Bentivolio

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

13

0.9020795

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.0979205

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

17

0.8901186

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.297826

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-5

-10

-3.8

59

0.264294

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

9

0.9181888

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

38

0.5132291

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

19

0.8702682

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3331746

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3331746

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

66

0.1598696

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

35

0.6173385

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4341445

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

71

0.0923108

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

22

0.8234676

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

15

0.896224

Nebraska 2

Sullivan

Terry

0

4

15

5

15

7.8

13

0.9020795

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4472288

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2752549

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9076892

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

3

0.9513739

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

0

5

10

5

4

27

0.7464401

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

59

0.264294

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

3

0.9513739

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9577053

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

8

0.9230886

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

19

0.8702682

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

71

0.0923108

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

13

2

5

5

5

4.7

24

0.7821314

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

32

0.702174

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

56

0.286435

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

15

10.2

2

0.9546283

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.713565

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0722379

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

23

0.8057465

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

5

-5

1.6

36

0.604623

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 236; Democrats 202

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Hillary is Beatable

Obama was a huge underdog in the 2008 Democratic nomination process but he defeated Hillary quite handily in the end. Obama defeated Hillary mainly because he was much more coherent during speeches and debates. Hillary is not a great orator like Obama or her husband Bill and worse yet she, is not very quick on her feet. Whereas, Bill and Barack can look the American public in the eye and lie to them without looking disheveled. And Hillary looks disheveled by questions that she knew had to be coming.

As bad as Hillary was during the 2008 Democratic nomination process, she was worse these past few weeks when rolling out her extremely boring book. Here are some things that Hillary declared during her book tour:

  • That she and Bill understand what it is like to be poor because they were in debt after Bill left the White House and it was hard for them to pay the mortgage on their houses (yes, plural). The press buried Romney as an elitist for being wealthy and having multiple homes. I doubt the press will come down as hard on Hillary.
  • On Benghazi Hillary took responsibility for the four Americans who died from the terrorist attack at the Embassy, including Ambassador Stevens, and then she immediately went on to blame everyone who works for her claiming they screwed up the security. As Hillary said “She cannot do all the security jobs”.
  • Hillary chastised Obama for being sexists during the 2008 Democratic primaries and even went on to defend Sarah Palin. Well, if Palin gave an interview as bad as Hillary, she would have been ridiculed by the press, and rightfully so.
  • Hillary was also confrontational with NPR when they asked about her flip flopping on gay marriage. Hillary came out against same sex marriage and was later accused of flip flopping for political purposes.
  • Hillary talked about Senator Lincoln defeating Seward in the 1860 election. Unfortunately, Lincoln was never a Senator and he defeated Douglas. This kind of gaffe would have destroyed a Republican candidate.

Still, Hillary is very popular with favorability ratings above 50%. But let’s not forget when Obama took office his favorability ratings were above 70%. Remarkably though, considering how bad the Obama presidency has gone, he still has a favorability rating around 40%. This just shows that there are a lot of liberals that will give any Democrat a high favorability rating regardless of how incompetent they are. But as long as Hillary has to continue to give speeches and later have debates – it is possible that independents will sour on her inability to answer questions that she had to know were coming.

2014 Election Polls and Models (6/20/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

7.2

12

0.7103091

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

19

4

0.9282258

1

Rep Gain

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

-10

32

0.2206961

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

18

5

0.9170837

1

Rep Gain

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-8.5

30

0.2564375

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

-9

31

0.2441988

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

-22

35

0.0451652

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-33

36

0.0055349

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-13

33

0.1584623

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

1

16

0.530682

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

23

3

0.9616899

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

10

8

0.7793039

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-2.5

29

0.4236905

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

3

14

0.5913245

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

14

6

0.8594345

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

10

8

0.7793039

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Brownback

1

16

0.530682

1

Rep Hold

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1

28

0.469318

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

8

11

0.7310116

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7

13

0.705019

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

1

16

0.530682

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

1

16

0.530682

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

1

16

0.530682

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

11

7

0.8014547

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-21.5

34

0.0489455

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

1

16

0.530682

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

27

2

0.981172

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

1

0.989543

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

10

8

0.7793039

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconis

Walker

2

15

0.5611829

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Mead

1

16

0.530682

1

Rep Hold

1

0

12.9896

0.5557793

8

0

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9999676

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

-6

32

0.3158287

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

-1

28

0.4681587

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Purdue

1.5

11

0.5476985

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Hanabusa

-4

30

0.374637

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

1

13

0.5318413

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-5.8

31

0.3215333

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-11.5

35

0.1790894

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

1.5

24

0.5476985

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

25

1

0.9771135

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Roberts

1

12

0.5318413

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

17

5

0.9128136

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-1.7

28

0.4459784

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

3

10

0.5947177

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Coburn

1

13

0.5318413

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Inhofe

1

13

0.5318413

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

18

4

0.9248093

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

2

0.9771135

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

11

8

0.8102699

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

1

13

0.5318413

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

1

13

0.5318413

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-16

36

0.1005564

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-10

34

0.2121475

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

10

9

0.7878525

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-6.7

33

0.2962127

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

15

6

0.8846365

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14.5

7

0.8766779

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

0.3

19

0.5095616

1

Rep Gain

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

-0.8

27

0.4745172

-1

Dem Hold

-1

0

12.5158

0.5566631

2

4

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

24

0.7803186

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

3

0.9536206

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

39

0.4865899

Arizona 2

Barber

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

42

0.473195

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

59

0.2614805

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

74

0.0840342

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.3683585

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0609872

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

18

0.8869248

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0570352

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

34

0.668968

California 25

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

15

0.8993005

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

43

0.4465109

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2614805

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

63

0.2506619

California 36

Ruiz

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-10

-2.8

53

0.3189325

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

7

-2

0

0

5

1.3

37

0.586493

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

49

0.4200668

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

69

0.1006995

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

25

0.7599149

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4465109

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

10

0.9159658

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

6

0.9390128

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

49

0.4069713

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0432055

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

39

0.4865899

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.1006995

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2725339

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

75

0.0741338

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

54

0.3070231

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

33

0.6929769

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

64

0.2297564

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

25

0.7599149

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.0893422

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4332515

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9106578

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

39

0.4865899

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

0

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

64

0.2297564

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2614805

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.7161856

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

27

0.7493381

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9304697

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

29

0.7274661

Michigan 11

Bentivolio

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

13

0.9051043

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.0948957

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

17

0.893242

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.2953138

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-10

-10

-4.8

66

0.2098649

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

9

0.9210335

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

38

0.5134101

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

19

0.8735003

New York 1

Bishop

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.331032

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.331032

New York 18

Maloney

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

67

0.1565803

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

35

0.6188965

New York 21

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4332515

New York 24

Maffei

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.0893422

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

21

0.8267428

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

15

0.8993005

Nebraska 2

Sullivan

Terry

0

4

15

5

15

7.8

13

0.9051043

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4465109

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2725339

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9106578

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

3

0.9536206

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

0

5

10

5

4

27

0.7493381

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

59

0.2614805

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

3

0.9536206

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9597906

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

8

0.9258662

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

19

0.8735003

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

68

0.1196547

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

13

2

5

5

5

4.7

23

0.7852594

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

32

0.7046862

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

56

0.2838144

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

15

10.2

2

0.9567945

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.7161856

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0695303

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

22

0.8089765

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

5

-5

1.6

36

0.6060211

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 200

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204