What effect will Dave Brat’s victory over Eric Cantor have on the political scene? Not much. Sure, his victory was historic and it is good to see some new blood push out the cronyism in Washington, but it will not change much. Democrats and Republicans are claiming a Tea Party victory, but Brat really did not receive much Tea Party support (he spent only 120,000 on his campaign). Personally, I think many Democrats voted in the Republican primary and that made the difference – that’s politics.
As far as the 2014 election is concerned Brat will more than likely win Virginia’s 7th congressional district. However, it still looks as if Democrats may pick up a couple of seats in the House. The Democrats may pick up a few governorships while the Republicans seem poised to pick up a few Senate seats. About 15 to 20 seats will change hands – that is it. A lot can change between now and November, but this does not look like the huge Republican wave we saw in 2010.
The issue that pushed Brat over the top was immigration reform and he claimed a vote for Cantor was a vote for amnesty. It is true; Cantor supported a form of “amnesty” immigration reform, but not in the true definition of the word “amnesty” which means a complete pardon. The Cantor “amnesty” plan was probably something similar to the Reagan Immigration plan in 1986 were illegal immigrants will receive citizenship but must meet a variety of other conditions such as assimilation for instance. But any “amnesty” plan would not be good for anyone and I have written about this in the past.
First, the only group of people amnesty will benefit is Democrats. Hispanics break for Democrats about 70-30 and more Hispanic citizens would mean more votes for Democratic candidates. Republicans are delusional if they think supporting some type of amnesty reform will result in more Hispanics supporting them in elections. After all, Democrats will never let Republicans go further left on the issue of immigration reform. Secondly, amnesty does not help Hispanics. Think about it; citizenship means Hispanics will have to pay a tax on their earnings, but their employers will be forced to pay them at least minimum wage. Thirdly, the 6.5% unemployed, the underemployed, and the reduced workforce will not see any benefit with 12 million more people in the workforce. Fourthly, hardworking Americans will more than likely have to pay higher taxes to support government programs and welfare for 12 million more citizens. And finally, any amnesty without a secure border only means more Hispanics will enter the country illegally – and they too will expect amnesty.