Wednesday, October 29, 2014

2014 Election Trends (10/29/14)

One way to prognosticate the outcome of the 2014 elections is to evaluate trends. Many articles point to the fact that polls have been trending in the Republicans favor over the past few weeks. What does this mean? Many polling outlets conduct weekly or monthly polls of hotly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races. And the results have been on average trending towards Republicans for each of these polls. For instance, an NBC poll may have had Hagan ahead by 6 points in the North Carolina Senate Race last month. However, that margin has slowly deteriorated in Tillis’s favor over the weeks to just a 1 point lead for Hagan now. This and other polls show this race is trending towards Tillis.

However, the best way to look at trends is if we had any actual data. This is hard to come by, but with the onset of early voting small samples of data are out there (electproject.org). However, the early voting data is fairly generic for most states, but a few states provide some ideology breakdown of the voters. Below are tables for 6 states early voting trends for 2010, 2012, and 2014 (States that have a key Senate and or Governor races). If the 2014 trend looks more like 2010 that is good for Republicans but if it looks more like 2012 then that is good for Democrats. This data is not necessarily an apples to apples comparison since early voting laws are changing in these states. For instance, in Colorado, the 2014 election will be conducted entirely by early voting. Other examples include some states have implemented mail in early voting options along with in person early voting. These early voting statistics are updated daily at the electproject.org website.

From electproject.org

Year

State / U.S.

Total Early Vote

Total Vote

Rep (%)

Dem (%)

Delta (%)

2010

U.S.

19,091,000

2010

CO

1,212,000

1,828,000

40.7

34.6

6.1

2010

FL

2,173,000

5,474,000

49.2

36.5

12.7

2010

IA

349,000

1,133,000

38

43.7

-5.7

2010

LA

125,000

1,299,000

42.3

46.7

-4.4

2010

NC

957,000

2,701,000

36.5

46.4

-9.9

2010

ME

134,000

581,000

34.5

37.7

-3.2

2010

AVERAGE

825,000

2,169,333

40

40.93333

-0.73333

2012

U.S.

32,311,000

2012

CO

1,873,000

2,422,000

36.1

34.3

1.8

2012

FL

4,469,000

8,454,000

39.1

42.9

-3.8

2012

IA

673,000

1,544,000

32

41.9

-9.9

2012

LA

356,000

1,980,000

34.5

51

-16.5

2012

NC

2,757,000

4,355,000

31.5

47.6

-16.1

2012

ME

170,000

725,000

29.1

39.9

-10.8

2012

AVERAGE

1,716,333

3,246,667

34

42.93333

-9.21667

2014

U.S.

9,659,000

2014

CO

660,000

660,000

42.8

32.4

10.4

2014

FL

1,972,000

1,972,000

45.1

37.9

7.2

2014

IA

323,000

323,000

40.1

41.2

-1.1

2014

LA

189,000

189,000

34.1

52.4

-18.3

2014

NC

461,000

461,000

31.3

48.4

-17.1

2014

ME

53,000

53,000

35.6

39

-3.4

2014

AVERAGE

609,667

609,667

38

41.88333

-3.71667

Based on the Averages it looks like we are between 2010 and 2012. Colorado, Iowa, and Maine look favorable for the Republicans. Whereas, North Carolina, and Louisiana look good for the Democrats. Florida is a wash, so I doubt either Party can be too happy thus far.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (10/28/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

6

14

0.6648621

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-18

34

0.1007467

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0.3

19

0.5084922

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-0.2

22

0.4943383

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

-4

26

0.3882641

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

0.2

20

0.5056617

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-12

32

0.197235

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

4.5

17

0.6252608

1

Rep Gain

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-10

29

0.2389712

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-8

28

0.2851219

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-24

36

0.0442767

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-10

29

0.2389712

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-10

29

0.2389712

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-18

34

0.1007467

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

5

16

0.6386332

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

30

1

0.9833666

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Walker

Parnell

-6

27

0.3351379

-1

Dem Gain

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-0.8

25

0.4773645

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

1.3

18

0.5367503

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

17

8

0.8861581

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

16

9

0.871893

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-0.6

24

0.4830194

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-0.2

22

0.4943383

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

5.2

15

0.6439362

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

13

12

0.8218662

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

25

4

0.9619717

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

9

13

0.738476

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

18

6

0.8992533

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

18

6

0.8992533

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-12

32

0.197235

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

16

9

0.871893

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

24

5

0.9557233

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

28

2

0.9765346

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

15

11

0.8564316

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

26

3

0.9674813

1

Rep Hold

1

0

14.0921

0.5703936

4

-2

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.990288

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

4.3

19

0.5796535

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

5.5

16

0.60145

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-18

33

0.2000549

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

-1

23

0.4813579

-1

Dem Gain

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-40

36

0.0307535

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-12

28

0.2874158

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-25

34

0.1212732

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

30

5

0.9195984

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-9

26

0.3369825

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-10

27

0.320086

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13

14

0.7283054

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

4.4

33

0.5814802

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

28

5

0.9047131

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-0.8

21

0.4850844

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

23

7

0.8588471

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

3.8

19

0.5704949

1

Rep Gain

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

4.8

17

0.5887692

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-16

30

0.2272502

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-16

30

0.2272502

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

31

3

0.9263481

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

31

3

0.9263481

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

17

10

0.7865999

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-30

35

0.0804016

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7727498

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

20

8

0.8250844

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

19

9

0.8127756

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

16

11

0.7727498

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-13

29

0.2716946

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-17

32

0.2134001

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

16

11

0.7727498

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-1.8

25

0.4664716

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

45

2

0.9822917

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

9

15

0.6630175

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-1.6

24

0.4701896

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

2.5

21

0.5465163

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

21.3923

0.5651749

6

6

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

-4

8

0

0

-5

0.2

47

0.5115867

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

9

15

5

10

15

9.9

10

0.9247627

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

6

4

0

0

-5

0.4

45

0.5231636

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

50

0.4308205

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-10

-10

-4.8

63

0.2428567

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

-6

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

72

0.1006079

California 7

Bera

Ose

-4

0

0

-5

5

-0.4

48

0.4768364

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-15

-15

-15

-10.2

78

0.0692462

California 10

Eggman

Denham

10

1

15

10

15

9.2

14

0.9092565

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-15

-15

-15

-10.4

79

0.065461

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

15

1

10

10

15

8.7

18

0.8968081

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

24

0.8651621

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-10

-10

15

-1.8

52

0.396881

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

0

-5

-5

-2.8

55

0.3421264

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

-4

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

61

0.2613959

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-10

-5

-2.8

55

0.3421264

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

-2.5

-2

0

0

5

0.35

46

0.5202708

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

1

-1

5

5

5

2.9

36

0.663192

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

-16

-3

-10

-10

-15

-9.2

74

0.0907435

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0.5

6

5

5

5

4.25

34

0.731469

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

-1

1

0

0

5

1.1

40

0.5634657

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

19

0.8831639

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

14

0.9092565

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-10

-10

-10

-7.6

68

0.1348379

Hawaii 1

Takai

Djou

2

-15

-10

-10

-15

-9.8

77

0.0773197

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

0

-5

-5

0.8

43

0.5462492

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.1348379

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

-4

-5

0

-5

-5

-3.4

58

0.3107203

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

-3

-10

-10

-10

-15

-9.3

75

0.0883935

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

5

2

-5

0

5

0.9

41

0.5519993

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

17

17

10

10

10

11.1

4

0.9465346

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

-9

-11

-5

-10

-10

-8.1

71

0.1197118

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

15

10

10

8.2

19

0.8831639

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

-1.5

-5

-5

-10

-5

-5.15

66

0.2272372

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

-2

0

0

0

-5

-1.2

50

0.4308205

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

10

5

15

10

15

10

7

0.9268022

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

43

0.5462492

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-2

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.6

54

0.3528568

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

-3

-4

-5

-10

-5

-5.1

65

0.2294333

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

15

15

5

7.4

26

0.8587594

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

10

10

5

6

30

0.8082399

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

17

0.8993921

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

3

3

15

10

10

7.9

23

0.8743879

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

12

4

10

15

15

10

7

0.9268022

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.1286371

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

22

2

15

10

15

10.6

5

0.9381618

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

8

3

0

0

5

2.4

37

0.6362945

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-10

6

-10

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2905068

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

9

7

10

10

15

9.3

13

0.9116065

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

7

1

0

5

-5

0.9

41

0.5519993

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

10

-1

15

15

15

9.8

11

0.9226803

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

-5

2

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

57

0.3262694

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

39

0.5805628

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

-4

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

61

0.2613959

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

10

5

15

8.2

19

0.8831639

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

11

0

5

5

10

5.1

33

0.7705667

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-5

-5

-5

-5

-15

-6.5

67

0.1725726

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

32

0.7919865

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

24

0.8651621

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

0

5

2.7

36

0.6525237

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

49

0.4537508

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-4

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

60

0.2709309

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

15

10

15

9

16

0.9044179

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

7

0.9268022

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

22

0.877363

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

-5

-10

-5

-4.8

63

0.2428567

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

8

15

15

15

15

12.8

1

0.9684898

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

15

15

15

11.4

3

0.9511102

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9381618

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

11

0.9226803

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

73

0.0955821

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

27

0.8554819

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

15

15

5

7.2

28

0.8521535

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

53

0.3637055

Utah 4

Owens

Love

10

16

10

15

15

12.2

2

0.9617948

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

15

2

5

5

10

5.9

31

0.8042513

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

-9

-4

-10

-15

-15

-9.7

76

0.0794457

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

0

10

6.4

29

0.8236912

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-6

14

0

5

-5

2.2

38

0.6253353

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 252; Democrats 186

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 243; Democrats 195