Saturday, October 25, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (9/25/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

6

14

0.6652734

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-19

35

0.0882124

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0.3

21

0.5085147

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

0.5

20

0.5141893

1

Rep Gain

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

-1

25

0.4716393

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

-1.8

26

0.449047

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-12

32

0.1966087

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

2.3

18

0.5649945

1

Rep Gain

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-10

30

0.2383879

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-9

28

0.2609732

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-24

36

0.0438558

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-10

30

0.2383879

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-9

28

0.2609732

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-18

34

0.1001503

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

5

15

0.6389857

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

30

1

0.9835988

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Walker

Parnell

-6

27

0.3347266

-1

Dem Gain

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-0.8

24

0.4773045

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

2.6

17

0.5733813

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

17

8

0.8867734

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

15

10

0.8570697

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

0.6

19

0.5170256

1

Rep Hold

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-0.2

22

0.4943233

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

4.2

16

0.6174648

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

13

12

0.8225033

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

25

4

0.9623591

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

9

13

0.7390268

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

18

6

0.8998497

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

18

6

0.8998497

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-12

32

0.1966087

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

16

9

0.8725225

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

24

5

0.9561442

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

28

2

0.9768251

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

14

11

0.8403984

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

-0.4

23

0.4886477

-1

Dem Gain

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

26

3

0.9678356

1

Rep Hold

1

0

14.0549

0.5696902

6

-1

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9906776

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

4.4

18

0.5820048

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

5.5

16

0.602098

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-18

33

0.1985197

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

0.8

22

0.515013

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-40

36

0.0299149

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-12

28

0.2861683

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-25

34

0.1197418

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

30

5

0.9209564

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-9

26

0.3359798

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-10

27

0.3189949

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13

14

0.7296202

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

4.4

33

0.5820048

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

28

5

0.906153

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

23

7

0.8604129

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

3.8

19

0.5709504

1

Rep Gain

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

4.8

17

0.5893392

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-13

29

0.2703798

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-16

31

0.2257796

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

31

3

0.9276603

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

31

3

0.9276603

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

17

10

0.7881067

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-30

35

0.0790436

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7742204

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

18

9

0.8014803

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

19

8

0.8143315

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

16

11

0.7742204

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-13

29

0.2703798

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-17

32

0.2118933

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

16

11

0.7742204

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-2.6

25

0.4513177

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

45

2

0.9828828

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

9

15

0.6640202

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-2

24

0.462514

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

2.5

21

0.5468187

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

21.2535

0.5670341

8

7

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

-4

8

5

5

5

4.2

35

0.7308386

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

10

15

10

10

15

11

4

0.9464792

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

6

4

0

0

-5

0.4

46

0.5233666

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

51

0.4302198

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-10

-10

-4.8

64

0.2409473

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

-6

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

72

0.0986456

California 7

Bera

Ose

-4

0

0

-5

5

-0.4

50

0.4766334

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-15

-15

-15

-10.2

78

0.0675324

California 10

Eggman

Denham

10

1

15

10

15

9.2

13

0.9111567

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-15

-15

-15

-10.4

79

0.0637885

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

19

-2

10

10

15

8.5

18

0.8934991

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

25

0.8672515

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-15

-5

15

-1.8

53

0.3959971

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

0

-5

-5

-2.8

55

0.3408171

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

59

0.2789214

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-10

-5

-2.8

55

0.3408171

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

-2.5

-2

0

0

5

0.35

48

0.5204485

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

1

-1

5

5

5

2.9

37

0.6645399

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

-16

-3

-10

-10

-15

-9.2

75

0.0888433

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0.5

6

5

5

5

4.25

34

0.7332515

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

-1

1

0

0

5

1.1

41

0.5640176

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

19

0.885202

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

13

0.9111567

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-10

-10

-10

-7.6

69

0.1327485

Hawaii 1

Takai

Djou

4

-15

-10

-10

-15

-9.6

76

0.0797853

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

0

-5

-5

0.8

43

0.5466531

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.1327485

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

-4

-8

0

-5

-5

-4

59

0.2789214

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

-3

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.9

73

0.0961239

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

5

0

-5

0

5

0.5

45

0.5291988

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

17

0

10

10

10

7.7

24

0.8703704

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

-9

-7

-5

-10

-10

-7.3

68

0.1424134

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

15

10

10

8.2

19

0.885202

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

-1.5

-5

-5

-10

-5

-5.15

66

0.2252632

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

-2

0

0

0

-5

-1.2

51

0.4302198

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

10

5

10

10

15

9

15

0.9063502

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

43

0.5466531

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

2

-2

0

-5

5

-0.2

49

0.4883117

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

1

-4

-5

-10

-5

-4.7

63

0.2455352

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

15

15

5

7.4

27

0.8608598

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

10

10

5

6

30

0.8103192

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

17

0.9013544

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

3

3

15

10

10

7.9

23

0.876455

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

12

4

10

15

15

10

7

0.9285562

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.1265618

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

22

2

15

10

15

10.6

5

0.9397919

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

8

3

0

0

5

2.4

38

0.6374418

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-10

6

-10

-5

-5

-3.8

58

0.2888504

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

9

7

10

10

15

9.3

12

0.9134899

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

7

1

0

5

-5

0.9

42

0.5524529

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

10

-1

15

15

15

9.8

9

0.9244731

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

-5

2

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

57

0.3248468

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

0

-5

5

0.4

46

0.5233666

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

-4

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

62

0.2595758

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

10

5

15

8.2

19

0.885202

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

11

0

5

5

10

5.1

33

0.7725322

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-5

-5

-5

-5

-15

-6.5

67

0.170465

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

32

0.7940254

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

25

0.8672515

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

0

5

2.7

37

0.6537936

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

5

1.2

39

0.5697802

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

59

0.2789214

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

15

10

15

9

15

0.9063502

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

7

0.9285562

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

22

0.879421

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-15

-5

-4.8

64

0.2409473

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

8

15

15

15

15

12.8

1

0.9696281

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

15

15

15

11.4

3

0.952564

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9397919

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

9

0.9244731

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

74

0.0936498

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

28

0.8575866

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

15

15

5

7.2

29

0.8542617

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

54

0.3625582

Utah 4

Owens

Love

10

16

10

15

15

12.2

2

0.9630675

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

15

2

5

5

10

5.9

31

0.8063219

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

-9

-4

-10

-15

-15

-9.7

77

0.0776339

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

15

10

9.4

11

0.915777

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-6

14

0

0

-5

1.2

39

0.5697802

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 255; Democrats 183

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 244; Democrats 194

No comments:

Post a Comment