Wednesday, October 8, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (10/8/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

5.6

14

0.6500634

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-19

35

0.0954505

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

4

15

0.6084768

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

0.5

20

0.5137284

1

Rep Gain

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

1

19

0.5274406

1

Rep Gain

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

-1.5

24

0.4588796

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-14

31

0.1675908

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

0.2

22

0.5054923

1

Rep Gain

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-10

28

0.2456074

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-11

30

0.2244603

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-26

36

0.0367444

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-10

28

0.2456074

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-18

33

0.1076578

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-18

33

0.1076578

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

4

15

0.6084768

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

27

3

0.9684595

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Walker

Parnell

-2.5

26

0.4316816

-1

Dem Gain

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-1.4

23

0.4616122

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

0.3

21

0.5082381

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

18

6

0.8923422

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

15

8

0.8490967

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-3.2

27

0.4128262

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1.6

25

0.456149

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

2.8

17

0.576421

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

10

13

0.7543926

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

23

5

0.94332

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

11

12

0.7755397

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

15

8

0.8490967

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

18

6

0.8923422

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-16

32

0.1353602

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

15

8

0.8490967

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

28

1

0.9730387

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

26

4

0.9632556

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

12

11

0.7956132

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

1.8

18

0.549306

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

28

1

0.9730387

1

Rep Hold

1

0

14.5269

0.5560999

8

0

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9908882

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

4.7

19

0.587819

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

3.7

20

0.5693491

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-18

33

0.1976693

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

2.4

21

0.5451156

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-40

36

0.029457

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-13

30

0.2696501

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-25

34

0.1188963

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

30

6

0.9217039

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-6.3

27

0.3830456

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-9

28

0.3354227

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13

16

0.7303499

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

5.4

32

0.6006356

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

32

2

0.9346145

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-5

25

0.4066758

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

23

7

0.8612782

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

0.6

22

0.5113015

1

Rep Gain

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

5.6

17

0.6042784

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-12

29

0.2854758

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-16

32

0.2249643

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

31

4

0.9283822

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

31

4

0.9283822

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

18

9

0.8023307

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-30

35

0.0782961

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7750357

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

18

9

0.8023307

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

19

8

0.815193

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

16

12

0.7750357

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

17

11

0.7889418

1

Rep Gain

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-14

31

0.2542766

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

16

12

0.7750357

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-4.6

25

0.41402

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

45

2

0.9832042

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

13.5

15

0.7380945

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-3.7

24

0.4306509

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

2.2

22

0.5413701

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

21.1771

0.5826986

10

8

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

7.5

8

5

5

5

5.35

31

0.7900051

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

16

15

10

10

15

11.6

3

0.9598147

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

42

0.4879748

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

47

0.4282295

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-10

-10

-4.8

62

0.234676

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

-6

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

73

0.0923406

California 7

Bera

Ose

-4

0

0

-5

-5

-2.4

52

0.3587631

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0827554

California 10

Eggman

Denham

10

1

10

10

15

8.2

16

0.8917776

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0782531

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

19

-2

10

10

15

8.5

13

0.8999485

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

21

0.8740187

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-15

-5

15

-1.8

51

0.3930705

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

57

0.2833908

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

59

0.2732727

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-10

-10

-3.8

57

0.2833908

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

3.5

-2

0

0

-5

-1.05

46

0.4371208

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

38

0.6069295

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

69

0.1259813

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

-2

6

5

5

5

4

33

0.7267273

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

4

1

0

0

-5

-0.4

45

0.4759605

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

16

0.8917776

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

8

0.9172446

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-5

-10

-10

-6.6

66

0.1599024

Hawaii 1

Takai

Djou

4

-15

-10

-10

-15

-9.6

79

0.073939

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

42

0.4879748

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.1259813

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

-0.5

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.65

56

0.2910955

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

-3

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.9

75

0.0898706

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

5

0

-5

0

-5

-1.5

49

0.4105601

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

17

0

5

10

10

6.7

27

0.8437362

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

-9

-7

-5

-10

-10

-7.3

67

0.1355845

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

10

10

10

7.2

24

0.8611058

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

-2.5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.25

72

0.1068282

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

-5

0

0

0

-5

-1.5

49

0.4105601

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

7

5

10

10

15

8.7

11

0.9051395

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

38

0.5479917

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

2

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.3147766

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

-1

-4

-5

-10

-5

-4.9

64

0.2300727

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

10

15

5

6.4

29

0.8326554

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

33

0.7267273

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

9

0.9076594

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

15

5

10

6.6

28

0.8400976

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

9

0.9076594

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.1198489

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

22

2

15

10

15

10.6

4

0.9449567

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

47

0.4282295

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-13

6

-10

-5

-5

-4.1

60

0.2682816

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

14

0.8972765

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

3

1

0

5

-5

0.5

40

0.5300391

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

5

-1

15

15

15

9.3

7

0.9195195

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

-5

2

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

54

0.320149

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

0

-5

5

0.4

41

0.5240395

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

-4

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

61

0.2535886

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

10

5

10

7.2

24

0.8611058

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

11

0

5

5

10

5.1

32

0.7789805

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-5

-5

-10

-5

-15

-7.5

68

0.1291282

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

30

0.8006996

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

21

0.8740187

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

0

5

2.7

36

0.6579915

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

6

1

0

0

-5

-0.2

42

0.4879748

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-8

-3

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

65

0.2078295

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

18

0.88607

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

6

0.9341411

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

18

0.88607

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-15

-5

-4.8

62

0.234676

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

8

15

10

15

15

11.8

2

0.9623545

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

5

0.9415194

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

12

0.9025694

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

20

0.8801511

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

76

0.08745

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

23

0.8644155

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

15

15

5

7.2

24

0.8611058

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

52

0.3587631

Utah 4

Owens

Love

11

16

10

15

15

12.3

1

0.9681344

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

35

0.6958506

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

73

0.0923406

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

15

5

8.4

14

0.8972765

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

0

-5

0.6

39

0.5360319

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 247; Democrats 191

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 53; Democrats 47 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 237; Democrats 201

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