Friday, March 30, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (3/30/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 233; Democrats 202;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 33; Democrats 15 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Arkansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

California

55

0

2

0.5

26.5

Colorado

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Connecticut

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

DC

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Florida

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

Georgia

16

0

2

0.5

7

Hawaii

4

0

2

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

2

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

2

0.5

9

Indiana

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Iowa

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

2

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

2

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Maine

4

0

2

0.5

1

Maryland

10

0

2

0.5

4

Michigan

16

0

2

0.5

7

Minnesota

10

0

2

0.5

4

Mississippi

6

0

2

0.5

2

Missouri

10

0

2

0.5

4

Montana

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Nebraska

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Nevada

6

0

2

0.5

2

New Hampshire

4

0

2

0.5

1

New Jersey

14

0

2

0.5

6

New Mexico

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

New York

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

North Carolina

15

0

2

0.5

6.5

North Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

0

2

0.5

8

Oklahoma

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Oregon

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Pennsylvania

20

0

2

0.5

9

Rhode Island

4

0

2

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Texas

38

0

2

0.5

18

Utah

6

0

2

0.5

2

Vermont

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Virginia

13

0

2

0.5

5.5

Washington

12

0

2

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

0

2

0.5

4

Wyoming

3

6

1

1

1

0

Total

329

206

0.84853

0.51

0.501149425

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

3

0.5

-1

Indiana

Daniels

0

3

0.5

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

3

0.5

-1

Louisiana

Jindal

0

3

0.5

1

Mississippi

Barbour

0

3

0.5

1

Missouri

Nixon

-18

14

0.000405

-1

Montana

Schweitzer

0

3

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Lynch

0

3

0.5

-1

North Carolina

Bowles

McCrory

4

2

0.7716549

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

3

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

3

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

3

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

1

0.8794587

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

0

3

0.5

-1

0

5.37412

0.5108228

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

11

2

0.9419945

1

California

Feinstein

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

27

0.3186341

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

5

4

0.7625184

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

33

0.0021336

-1

Indiana

Lugar

0

10

0.5

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

2

5

0.6124731

1

Maine

Pingree

Summers

-3

26

0.3340868

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-15

31

0.0160453

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

1

7.5

0.5568096

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1.6

6

0.5904165

Gain

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Bruning

16.5

1

0.9908035

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

2

5

0.6124731

1

New York

Gillibrand

0

10

0.5

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-13.5

30

0.0268684

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-5

28

0.2374816

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

10

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-8.5

29

0.1122735

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

0

10

0.5

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

0

10

0.5

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

31

0.0160453

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

5.5

3

0.784028

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5568096

1

0

6.99862

0.4688453

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

12

0.9122902

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

5

0.9252758

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

10

5

5

5.6

54

0.790233

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-10

-2.4

87

0.364688

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

5

8

29

0.875583

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

80

0.47701

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

85

0.3865599

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-15

-6.2

106

0.1857361

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

76

0.5912017

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-15

-5.4

97

0.2181665

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

60

0.7178928

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

112

0.1430543

California 21

0

3

5

0

5

2.6

73

0.64609

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9653353

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-15

-6.6

107

0.1707062

California 26

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.4087983

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

87

0.364688

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

37

0.863357

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-15

-5.6

99

0.209767

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-15

-7

109

0.1564783

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

77

0.5459037

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

10

15

6.8

46

0.8365083

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9292614

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

66

0.6776991

Connecticut 5

Murphy

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

112

0.1430543

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

35

0.869569

Florida 9

0

-3

-5

-10

-15

-6.6

107

0.1707062

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

5

15

15

7.8

35

0.869569

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

24

0.8870226

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

27

0.8814002

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

29

0.875583

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

0

15

3.2

65

0.6776991

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

21

0.8976911

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-15

-15

-7

109

0.1564783

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

10

6

50

0.8064503

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-5

-6

103

0.1935497

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-10

-5.6

99

0.209767

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.3223009

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4200336

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

71

0.6567521

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

94

0.2724491

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

56

0.7818335

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

5

6.4

47

0.8218788

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

119

0.124417

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

115

0.130431

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

81

0.4540963

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

63

0.7080728

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-5

-10

-5

-2.2

86

0.375574

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

114

0.136643

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9435884

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-5

0

-5

-2.4

87

0.364688

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0747242

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-10

-10

-15

-8.4

122

0.1129774

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

10

5

7

44

0.8435217

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

15

5.6

54

0.790233

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9076073

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8503341

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

27

0.8814002

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

115

0.130431

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8503341

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

29

0.875583

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

10

15

9.4

12

0.9122902

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

78

0.52299

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-10

-10

-15

-6

103

0.1935497

Montana 1

Rehberg

0

7

10

5

5

5.4

56

0.7818335

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

59

0.7732434

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

12

0.9122902

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

132

0.0632598

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

9

0.9167937

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0564116

New Jersey 9

Rothman

0

-9

-15

-15

-15

-10.8

133

0.0597589

New Jersey 12

Holt

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0747242

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-5

-5

-15

-5

96

0.2355344

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-10

-15

-15

-8.6

124

0.1075478

New York 11

Grimm

0

5

5

10

15

7

44

0.8435217

New York 18

Hayworth

0

2

5

10

15

6.4

47

0.8218788

New York 19

Gibson

0

-1

5

10

15

5.8

51

0.7984394

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

22

0.8924522

New York 21

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-15

-4.8

95

0.2444964

New York 24

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

10

15

3.2

65

0.6776991

New York 25

Slaughter

0

5

-5

0

-15

-3

90

0.3327091

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

22

0.8924522

New York 27

Hochul

0

7

5

-15

-15

-3.6

92

0.3019035

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9076073

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

0

10

5

5

4

60

0.7178928

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

78

0.52299

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

119

0.124417

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

5

0.9252758

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

5

5

2

74

0.6134401

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-5

-5.4

97

0.2181665

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

12

0.9122902

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

0

5

3.2

65

0.6776991

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

47

0.8218788

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

10

5

7.6

37

0.863357

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

10

10

8

29

0.875583

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

20

0.9027419

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

60

0.7178928

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

5

5.8

51

0.7984394

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

75

0.6023625

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

51

0.7984394

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0747242

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

109

0.1564783

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

9

0.9167937

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

115

0.130431

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8503341

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

40

0.8503341

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

71

0.6567521

Pennsylvania 12

Altmire

0

6

-5

-5

-5

-1.8

84

0.3976375

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9076073

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

10

15

15

8.4

24

0.8870226

Pennsylvania 16

Pitts

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9292614

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

115

0.130431

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9076073

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

10

15

10

5

0.9252758

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

127

0.0832063

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-15

-5.6

99

0.209767

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

37

0.863357

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

9

0.9167937

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

10

3.2

65

0.6776991

Texas 34

0

-3

-10

-15

-15

-8.6

124

0.1075478

Texas 35

0

0

-15

0

-15

-6

103

0.1935497

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

64

0.6980965

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

10

15

8

29

0.875583

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

122

0.1129774

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

92

0.3019035

Washington 6

Dicks

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

126

0.0923927

Washington 3

Beutler

0

0

15

10

15

8

29

0.875583

Washington 8

Reichert

0

-3

15

15

15

8.4

24

0.8870226

Washington 10

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

119

0.124417

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

10

15

9.8

8

0.9211211

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

102

0.2015606

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0788789

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

70

0.6672909

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

5

15

5.4

56

0.7818335