2012 Election Model (3/16/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 33; Democrats 15 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 203

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Arkansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
California	55		0	2	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		0	2	0.5	3.5
Connecticut	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Florida	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
Georgia		16	0	2	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	2	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	2	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	2	0.5	9
Indiana		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Iowa	6		0	2	0.5	2
Kansas		6	0	2	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	2	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	2	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		0	2	0.5	4.5
Maine	4		0	2	0.5	1
Maryland	10		0	2	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	2	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		0	2	0.5	4
Mississippi		6	0	2	0.5	2
Missouri		10	0	2	0.5	4
Montana		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Nebraska		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Nevada	6		0	2	0.5	2
New Hampshire	4		0	2	0.5	1
New Jersey	14		0	2	0.5	6
New Mexico	5		0	2	0.5	1.5
New York	29		0	2	0.5	13.5
North Carolina		15	0	2	0.5	6.5
North Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		0	2	0.5	8
Oklahoma		7	0	2	0.5	2.5
Oregon	7		0	2	0.5	2.5
Pennsylvania	20		0	2	0.5	9
Rhode Island	4		0	2	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	2	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	2	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	0	2	0.5	4.5
Texas		38	0	2	0.5	18
Utah		6	0	2	0.5	2
Vermont	3		0	2	0.5	0.5
Virginia	13		0	2	0.5	5.5
Washington	12		0	2	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	2	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		0	2	0.5	4
Wyoming		3	6	1	1	1
			0
Total	329	206	0.84853		0.51	0.501149425
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	3	0.5				-1
Indiana		Daniels	0	3	0.5				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	3	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	3	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	3	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.000405				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	3	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Lynch		0	3	0.5				-1
North Carolina	Bowles	McCrory	4	2	0.7716549	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	3	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	3	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	3	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	1	0.8794587	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	3	0.5				-1
			0
			5.37412		0.5108228
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	11	2	0.9385421			1
California	Feinstein		0	9	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Lieberman		0	9	0.5			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	9	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	5	4	0.7584123			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	33	0.0025173			-1
Indiana		Lugar	0	9	0.5			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	4	5	0.7125888			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	27	0.3369788	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	30	0.0177061			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	9	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	9	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	1	7	0.5557652	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	8	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1.6	5	0.5887713	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Bruning	16.5	1	0.9896654	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	0	9	0.5			1
New York	Gillibrand		0	9	0.5			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-15	30	0.0177061			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5	28	0.2415877			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	9	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-9.5	29	0.0913827			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey		0	9	0.5			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	9	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	9	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	9	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	9	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	9	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	0	9	0.5			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	30	0.0177061			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	9	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	5.5	3	0.7797428	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	7	0.5557652			1
			0
			7.13059		0.4728739
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	13	0.9101278
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	6	0.9232349
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	5	5	5	4.6	60	0.7442486
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	10	1.6	76	0.590312
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	5	8	29	0.8732185
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	0	-15	-2.4	87	0.3659793
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	0	-5	-2	85	0.3876556
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-15	-6.2	105	0.1881196
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	76	0.590312
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-15	-5.4	95	0.2204503
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	62	0.7159558
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1454595
California 21			0	3	5	0	15	4.6	60	0.7442486
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9639303
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-15	-6.6	106	0.1731132
California 26			0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.409688
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	87	0.3659793
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	36	0.8609619
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-15	-5.6	97	0.2120824
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-15	-7	108	0.1588923
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	78	0.54545
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	10	15	6.8	44	0.8340957
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9272644
Colorado 6		Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	68	0.6760549
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1454595
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	15	7.8	35	0.8671876
Florida 9			0	-3	-5	-10	-15	-6.6	106	0.1731132
Florida 8			0	2	15	15	15	9.4	13	0.9101278
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	24	0.884702
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	27	0.8790561
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	29	0.8732185
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	0	15	3.2	67	0.6760549
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	23	0.895426
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-15	-15	-7	108	0.1588923
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	10	6	51	0.804085
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-5	-6	101	0.195915
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-10	-5.6	97	0.2120824
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	89	0.3239451
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4208169
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	72	0.6552775
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	92	0.2744489
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	55	0.7795497
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	5	6.4	48	0.8194814
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1267815
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1328124
Iowa 3	Boswell		0	1	0	0	-5	-0.8	81	0.45455
Iowa 4		King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	65	0.7062029
Kentucky 6	Chandler		0	9	-5	-10	-5	-2.2	86	0.3767689
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	113	0.1390381
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9417796
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-10	0	-5	-3.4	90	0.3137535
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	127	0.0767651
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-15	-8.4	121	0.115298
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	10	5	7	43	0.8411077
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	15	5.6	54	0.7879176
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9272644
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8479226
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	27	0.8790561
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1328124
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8479226
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	29	0.8732185
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	10	15	9.4	13	0.9101278
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.522762
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-10	-10	-15	-6	101	0.195915
Montana 1		Rehberg	0	7	10	5	5	5.4	55	0.7795497
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	58	0.7709956
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	13	0.9101278
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0651649
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	10	0.9146699
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	133	0.0582204
New Jersey 9	Rothman		0	-9	-15	-15	-15	-10.8	132	0.0616163
New Jersey 12	Holt		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	127	0.0767651
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-10	-5	-15	-6	101	0.195915
New York 9		Turner	0	-5	0	15	15	5	59	0.7622585
New York 13		Grimm	0	4	5	10	15	6.8	44	0.8340957
New York 19		Hayworth	0	3	5	10	15	6.6	46	0.8268868
New York 20		Gibson	0	2	5	10	15	6.4	48	0.8194814
New York 22	Hinchey		0	-6	-15	-15	-15	-10.2	130	0.0727356
New York 23	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-15	-4.8	94	0.2466584
New York 24		Hanna	0	2	10	10	15	7.4	38	0.8545405
New York 25		Buerkle	0	-3	-5	0	-15	-4.6	93	0.2557514
New York 29		Reed	0	5	10	15	15	9	21	0.9005087
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	18	0.9054083
New Hampshire 1		Guinta	0	0	10	5	5	4	62	0.7159558
New Hampshire 2		Bass	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.522762
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1267815
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	6	0.9232349
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	5	5	2	74	0.6123444
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-5	-5.4	95	0.2204503
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	13	0.9101278
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	0	5	3.2	67	0.6760549
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	48	0.8194814
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	5	7.6	36	0.8609619
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	10	10	8	29	0.8732185
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	21	0.9005087
Ohio 6		Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	62	0.7159558
Ohio 7		Gibbs	0	4	10	10	5	5.8	52	0.7960968
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	75	0.6013686
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	52	0.7960968
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	127	0.0767651
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-10	-15	-7	108	0.1588923
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	10	0.9146699
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1328124
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8479226
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8479226
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	72	0.6552775
Pennsylvania 12	Altmire		0	6	-5	-5	-5	-1.8	84	0.3986314
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	18	0.9054083
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	10	15	15	8.4	24	0.884702
Pennsylvania 16		Pitts	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	3	0.9272644
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1328124
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	18	0.9054083
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	10	15	10	6	0.9232349
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0853301
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-15	-5.6	97	0.2120824
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	0	10	15	6.6	46	0.8268868
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	10	0.9146699
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	10	3.2	67	0.6760549
Texas 34			0	-3	-10	-15	-15	-8.6	123	0.1098421
Texas 35			0	0	-15	0	-15	-6	101	0.195915
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	66	0.6962978
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	15	8	29	0.8732185
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	121	0.115298
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	91	0.3037022
Washington 6	Dicks		0	-6	-10	-15	-15	-9.2	124	0.0945917
Washington 3		Beutler	0	0	15	10	15	8	29	0.8732185
Washington 8		Reichert	0	-3	15	15	15	8.4	24	0.884702
Washington 10			0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1267815
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	10	15	9.8	9	0.9190379
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	100	0.2039032
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	126	0.0809621
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	71	0.6657297
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	15	5.4	55	0.7795497
			0							0
			0							7.0068612