Thursday, June 5, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (6/6/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

7.2

9

0.7291517

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

-10

32

0.1983392

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

O'Malley

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-9

31

0.2227879

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

-22

35

0.0311152

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-29

36

0.0069867

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-13

33

0.1352658

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

10

6

0.8016608

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-1.5

30

0.4494167

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

2

11

0.5673037

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

14

3

0.8823065

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

9

7

0.7772121

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Brownback

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1

29

0.4662274

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

10.2

5

0.8063488

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7

10

0.7235091

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Sandoval

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

11

4

0.8244158

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-21.5

34

0.0342068

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

33

1

0.9974208

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

2

0.9945001

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

9

7

0.7772121

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconis

Walker

2

11

0.5673037

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Mead

1

13

0.5337726

1

Rep Hold

1

0

11.7985

0.5295349

4

-4

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9999652

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

-6

30

0.3165546

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

-1.5

26

0.4525035

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Purdue

-0.5

25

0.4841344

-1

Dem Gain

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Hanabusa

-4

29

0.3751527

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Collins

1

8

0.5317061

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-3

27

0.4056778

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

-15

34

0.1163588

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

3

16

0.5943222

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

25

1

0.9766483

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Roberts

1

7

0.5317061

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

17

4

0.9118933

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-3

26

0.4056778

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

1

8

0.5317061

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Coburn

1

8

0.5317061

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Inhofe

1

8

0.5317061

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

2

0.9766483

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

1

8

0.5317061

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Scott

1

8

0.5317061

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Graham

1

8

0.5317061

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

-15

34

0.1163588

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-12

33

0.1698621

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

12

6

0.8301379

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-7

32

0.288793

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

-15.5

36

0.1087567

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14

5

0.8673236

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

0.5

16

0.5158656

1

Rep Gain

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

-6

30

0.3165546

-1

Dem Hold

-1

0

12.5693

0.5085786

-4

2

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

25

0.7796312

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

2

0.9531284

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

38

0.4866302

Arizona 2

Barber

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

41

0.4732753

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

59

0.2621047

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

74

0.0846745

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

51

0.3687391

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0615494

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

17

0.8862264

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0575803

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

35

0.6684921

California 25

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

21

0.8260179

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

42

0.4466705

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-10

-10

-5.8

66

0.1655091

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

62

0.2513047

California 36

Ruiz

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-5

-1.8

50

0.3814498

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

37

0.5400495

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

49

0.4203036

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

69

0.1013777

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

26

0.7592553

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

42

0.4466705

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

11

0.9153255

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

5

0.9384506

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

49

0.4072455

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0436798

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

38

0.4866302

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.1013777

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2731377

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

75

0.0747446

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

54

0.3075552

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

34

0.6924448

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

63

0.2304309

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

26

0.7592553

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.089996

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.43345

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

15

15

9

7

0.9342709

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

38

0.4866302

Maine 2

0

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

63

0.2304309

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2621047

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

31

0.7156039

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

28

0.7486953

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

8

0.9298745

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

30

0.7268623

Michigan 11

Bentivolio

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

13

0.9044378

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.0955622

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

16

0.8925532

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.2958716

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-10

-10

-4.8

65

0.2105635

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

10

0.9204076

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

42

0.4466705

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

18

0.8727865

New York 1

Bishop

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

52

0.3315079

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

52

0.3315079

New York 18

Maloney

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

67

0.1573077

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

36

0.6185502

New York 21

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.43345

New York 24

Maffei

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.089996

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

21

0.8260179

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

15

0.8986223

Nebraska 2

Sullivan

Terry

0

4

15

5

15

7.8

13

0.9044378

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

42

0.4466705

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2731377

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

12

0.910004

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

2

0.9531284

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

5

10

5

4

28

0.7486953

Nevada 4

Horsford

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

59

0.2621047

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

2

0.9531284

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9593343

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

9

0.9252554

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

18

0.8727865

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

68

0.1203614

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

13

2

5

5

10

5.7

20

0.8302883

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

33

0.7041284

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

56

0.2843961

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

10

9.2

5

0.9384506

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

31

0.7156039

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0701255

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

23

0.8082612

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

0

14

0

5

5

4.8

24

0.7894365

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 26; Democrats 24 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 232; Democrats 205

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 25; Democrats 25 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 231; Democrats 206

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