Thursday, June 12, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (6/13/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

7.2

12

0.7172662

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

19

4

0.9353254

1

Rep Gain

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

-10

32

0.212363

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

18

5

0.9246194

1

Rep Gain

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-7

31

0.2881579

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

-22

35

0.0395316

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-29

36

0.0103086

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-13

33

0.1496994

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

1

16

0.5318117

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

23

3

0.9668191

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

10

9

0.787637

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-2.5

30

0.4209115

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

3

14

0.5946312

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

14

6

0.86812

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

10

9

0.787637

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Brownback

1

16

0.5318117

1

Rep Hold

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1

29

0.4681883

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

10.2

8

0.7922388

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7

13

0.7118421

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

1

16

0.5318117

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

1

16

0.5318117

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

1

16

0.5318117

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

11

7

0.8100482

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-21.5

34

0.0430595

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

1

16

0.5318117

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

27

2

0.9844297

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

1

0.9916841

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

9

11

0.763752

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconis

Walker

2

15

0.5634215

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Mead

1

16

0.5318117

1

Rep Hold

1

0

12.5274

0.5667745

8

0

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9999735

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

-6

32

0.3138313

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

-1.5

28

0.4517446

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Purdue

1.5

9

0.5482554

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Hanabusa

-4

31

0.3732165

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-3

29

0.4041926

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

-15

35

0.1126512

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

3

18

0.5958074

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

25

1

0.9783557

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Roberts

1

9

0.532214

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

17

4

0.9153136

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-3

28

0.4041926

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Coburn

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Inhofe

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

2

0.9783557

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

-15

35

0.1126512

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-12

34

0.1660135

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

12

7

0.8339865

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-7

33

0.2857458

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

15

5

0.8873488

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14.5

6

0.8794276

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

0.5

19

0.5161202

1

Rep Gain

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

1

10

0.532214

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

12.3706

0.5339196

2

4

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

24

0.7803333

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

3

0.953631

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

39

0.4865891

Arizona 2

Barber

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

42

0.4731933

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

59

0.2614671

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

74

0.0840205

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.3683503

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0609752

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

18

0.8869397

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0570235

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

34

0.6689782

California 25

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

15

0.899315

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

43

0.4465074

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2614671

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

63

0.2506481

California 36

Ruiz

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-10

-2.8

53

0.3189218

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

37

0.5401723

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

49

0.4200618

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

69

0.100685

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

25

0.759929

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4465074

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

10

0.9159795

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

6

0.9390248

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

49

0.4069654

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0431954

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

39

0.4865891

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.100685

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2725209

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

75

0.0741208

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

54

0.3070117

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

33

0.6929883

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

64

0.229742

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

25

0.759929

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.0893283

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4332472

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9106717

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

39

0.4865891

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

0

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

64

0.229742

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2614671

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.716198

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

27

0.7493519

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9304824

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

29

0.7274791

Michigan 11

Bentivolio

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

13

0.9051185

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.0948815

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

17

0.8932567

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.2953019

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-10

-10

-4.8

66

0.20985

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

9

0.9210468

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

38

0.5134109

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

19

0.8735155

New York 1

Bishop

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3310218

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3310218

New York 18

Maloney

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

67

0.1565647

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

35

0.6189039

New York 21

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4332472

New York 24

Maffei

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.0893283

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

21

0.8267583

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

15

0.899315

Nebraska 2

Sullivan

Terry

0

4

15

5

15

7.8

13

0.9051185

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4465074

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2725209

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9106717

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

3

0.953631

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

0

5

10

5

4

27

0.7493519

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

59

0.2614671

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

3

0.953631

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9598004

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

8

0.9258792

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

19

0.8735155

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

68

0.1196396

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

13

2

5

5

5

4.7

23

0.7852742

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

32

0.7046981

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

56

0.283802

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

15

10.2

2

0.9568046

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.716198

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0695176

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

22

0.8089918

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

5

-5

1.6

36

0.6060277

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 236; Democrats 202

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

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