2012 Election Polls and Models (10/12/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 55.2% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 199;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.8087824	5.661476668
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8874505	0.887450511
Arizona		11	6.5	21	0.6237714	5.613942479
Arkansas		6	21	6	0.8458956	3.383582449
California	55		-20	43	0.1659075	8.793097319
Colorado	9		-0.2	26	0.4961285	3.472899272
Connecticut	7		-13.4	38	0.2577779	1.288889454
Delaware	3		-20	43	0.1659075	0.165907497
DC	3		-75	51	0.0001367	0.000136721
Florida	29	0	0	25	0.5	13.5
Georgia		16	13.3	15	0.7406527	10.36913766
Hawaii	4		-29.5	49	0.0761528	0.152305528
Idaho		4	34	2	0.950507	1.901014047
Illinois	20		-15	40	0.2333532	4.200357519
Indiana		11	12	17	0.7198105	6.478294702
Iowa	6		-3.2	29	0.4383025	1.75321011
Kansas		6	17	9	0.7952844	3.181137427
Kentucky		8	14	13	0.7515341	4.509204457
Louisiana		8	16	11	0.7812352	4.687411228
Massachusetts	11		-25	47	0.1125495	1.012945405
Maine	4		-15	40	0.2333532	0.466706391
Maryland	10		-21	45	0.1541044	1.232835102
Michigan	16		-10	37	0.3137558	4.392581162
Minnesota	10		-8.4	34	0.3417855	2.734283832
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8087824	3.235129524
Missouri		10	5.2	23	0.5996034	4.796827489
Montana		3	10.3	18	0.6913883	0.691388255
Nebraska		5	12.5	16	0.727922	2.183765991
Nevada	6		-4.6	30	0.4116873	1.646749052
New Hampshire	4		-6	31	0.3854724	0.770944737
New Jersey	14		-13.4	38	0.2577779	3.09333469
New Mexico	5		-9.2	36	0.3276492	0.982947672
New York	29		-26.3	48	0.1009493	2.725631897
North Carolina	0	15	0.8	24	0.5154825	6.701272304
North Dakota		3	15	12	0.7666468	0.766646805
Ohio	18		-3	28	0.4421306	7.074088835
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.920312	4.60156019
Oregon	7		-8.5	35	0.3400058	1.700028765
Pennsylvania	20		-8	33	0.3489393	6.280906768
Rhode Island	4		-24	46	0.1220991	0.244198178
South Carolina		9	10	19	0.6862442	4.803709419
South Dakota		3	6	22	0.6145276	0.614527631
Tennessee		11	7	20	0.6329447	5.696502126
Texas		38	17	9	0.7952844	28.63023684
Utah		6	42	1	0.9792238	3.916895239
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0362982	0.036298229
Virginia	13	0	-0.3	27	0.4941928	5.436120966
Washington	12		-16.3	42	0.2144928	2.144928295
West Virginia		5	14	13	0.7515341	2.254602228
Wisconsin	10		-6.6	32	0.3743882	2.995105294
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9272618	0.927261773
			0
Total	332	206	20.6087		0.5032819	0.44779406	0.48273586	0.443
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.7639348				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.2788452				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	-3	7	0.4341072				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	0.5	4	0.5110311	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	12.5	3	0.7553312	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9735548				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0300195				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-3.3	8	0.4275874				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1227215				-1
			0
			18.0802		0.4815575		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	2.3	4	0.5661184			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-18.5	28	0.0902459			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-3	16	0.4140362			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	8	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-5.6	21	0.3425946			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-17.5	27	0.1026043			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	0	8	0.5			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-3.5	17	0.3999911	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	8	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13	25	0.1733296			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-23	29	0.047956			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	8	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-2.3	16	0.4338816			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-28	30	0.0213332			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1.7	4	0.5489724	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	2	0.890774	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	1.6	6	0.5461049			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-40	33	0.0018918			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-12.4	24	0.184685			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-10	23	0.2345591			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	3	0.641308	Gain	1	-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-4.8	19	0.3641157			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-7.2	22	0.3011073			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-26	30	0.0299059			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	8	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	26	1	0.9700941			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	8	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	8	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-4.7	18	0.3668379			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-17	26	0.109226			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0023768			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-4.8	19	0.3641157			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	7	0.5288548			1
			0
			13.8138		0.3690006		2
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9599071
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9124959
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9664487
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	84	0.408825
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9124959
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	105	0.2074995
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.5	93	0.3175004
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	109	0.148164
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	72	0.5858981
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	102	0.2361223
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	5	5	10	5.45	52	0.7700999
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	114	0.1272931
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	15	10	7.6	41	0.8486774
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9562672
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.6	82	0.4141019
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	82	0.4141019
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	33	0.8782748
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	56	0.7336506
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	96	0.2937321
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1712085
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	-5	-5	-2.2	87	0.3827055
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	62	0.6968593
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9167307
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	0	5	1.5	74	0.5806056
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3.1	90	0.3370789
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	46	0.8218073
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-14	-3	0	-10	-15	-7	107	0.1712085
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	0	4	0	-5	-5	-1.2	79	0.4353559
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8727069
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	37	0.8669642
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	10	10	7	45	0.8287915
Florida 18	Murphy	West	0.5	1	0	5	5	2.25	70	0.6198795
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	18	0.9081025
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	96	0.2937321
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	0	10	5	5	5	5	55	0.7511595
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-14	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8.4	114	0.1272931
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	7	-8	-5	-5	-5	-3.9	94	0.2984195
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.33214
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-7	-2	0	0	-5	-2.1	86	0.387891
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	-1	-1	5	5	5	2.7	67	0.6428911
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	13	-6	0	-5	-5	-1.9	85	0.3983214
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	5	10	6.4	49	0.8073092
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	53	0.7680361
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	111	0.1389544
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-5	-5	-15	-5.8	104	0.2157446
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.66786
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	59	0.7155391
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-7.3	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.93	95	0.2970097
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.065234
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	5	0.9321392
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	106	0.1853538
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0875041
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	3.7	-7	0	-5	5	-1.03	78	0.4444495
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9124959
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-9	3	0	0	-5	-1.3	80	0.4300224
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	8	6	10	10	15	9	28	0.8888921
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.8939448
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	50	0.7997973
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1163306
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	44	0.8355981
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	28	0.8888921
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	2	8	10	10	15	8.8	30	0.8836694
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	0	5	0.2	76	0.5108203
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	111	0.1389544
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	5.7	7	10	10	10	7.97	39	0.8601426
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	48	0.8200336
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9208095
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0752648
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	19	0.9035477
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0678608
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8836694
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0875041
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-8.7	0	-5	-5	-10	-4.87	100	0.2544629
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0964523
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	12	5	5	5	5	5.2	54	0.7596785
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	11.5	2	0	0	5	2.55	68	0.6352734
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	16.5	-1	0	5	5	3.45	63	0.6800786
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	10	15	8.6	33	0.8782748
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	101	0.244561
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-5.5	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.35	98	0.2776005
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-10	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8	111	0.1389544
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	41	0.8486774
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	1	7	0	0	-5	0.5	75	0.5270333
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	9.5	6	15	15	15	11.15	4	0.934766
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-7	0	5	0	5	1.3	74	0.5699776
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-1	-3	-5	0	-5	-2.7	89	0.3571089
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-12	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	134	0.0643762
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	13	0.9124959
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	5	5	2	71	0.6069034
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	8.5	-2	-5	-5	-5	-2.55	88	0.3647266
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	5	0.9321392
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	0	-5	3.1	65	0.6629211
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	5	10	7.6	41	0.8486774
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	33	0.8782748
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	13	0.9124959
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.8964079
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	60	0.7062679
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	46	0.8218073
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	77	0.4783674
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	10	5	10	7.8	40	0.8549502
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0875041
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	118	0.1111079
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	19	0.9035477
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	22	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.6	103	0.2237707
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	19	0.9035477
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	37	0.8669642
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6479383
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-7	6	0	-5	-5	-1.5	81	0.4193944
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9167307
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	23	0.8988293
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9167307
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.1450498
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.8939448
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	10	10	15	9.1	27	0.8914396
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0964523
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	2.5	-13	0	-5	-5	-4.35	98	0.2776005
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9247352
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	19	0.9035477
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	0	5	2.45	69	0.6301649
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0964523
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	118	0.1111079
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	3.5	13	0	0	5	3.95	61	0.7039285
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	15	5	5	5	5	5.5	51	0.7721534
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	121	0.1011707
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.33214
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0772087
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	118	0.1111079
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8836694
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0875041
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9285108
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.1217252
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0918975
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	3.5	0	5	5	10	4.35	58	0.7223995
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	10	4.4	57	0.7246682