Thursday, October 11, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (10/12/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 55.2% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 199;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.8087824

5.661476668

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8874505

0.887450511

Arizona

11

6.5

21

0.6237714

5.613942479

Arkansas

6

21

6

0.8458956

3.383582449

California

55

-20

43

0.1659075

8.793097319

Colorado

9

-0.2

26

0.4961285

3.472899272

Connecticut

7

-13.4

38

0.2577779

1.288889454

Delaware

3

-20

43

0.1659075

0.165907497

DC

3

-75

51

0.0001367

0.000136721

Florida

29

0

0

25

0.5

13.5

Georgia

16

13.3

15

0.7406527

10.36913766

Hawaii

4

-29.5

49

0.0761528

0.152305528

Idaho

4

34

2

0.950507

1.901014047

Illinois

20

-15

40

0.2333532

4.200357519

Indiana

11

12

17

0.7198105

6.478294702

Iowa

6

-3.2

29

0.4383025

1.75321011

Kansas

6

17

9

0.7952844

3.181137427

Kentucky

8

14

13

0.7515341

4.509204457

Louisiana

8

16

11

0.7812352

4.687411228

Massachusetts

11

-25

47

0.1125495

1.012945405

Maine

4

-15

40

0.2333532

0.466706391

Maryland

10

-21

45

0.1541044

1.232835102

Michigan

16

-10

37

0.3137558

4.392581162

Minnesota

10

-8.4

34

0.3417855

2.734283832

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.8087824

3.235129524

Missouri

10

5.2

23

0.5996034

4.796827489

Montana

3

10.3

18

0.6913883

0.691388255

Nebraska

5

12.5

16

0.727922

2.183765991

Nevada

6

-4.6

30

0.4116873

1.646749052

New Hampshire

4

-6

31

0.3854724

0.770944737

New Jersey

14

-13.4

38

0.2577779

3.09333469

New Mexico

5

-9.2

36

0.3276492

0.982947672

New York

29

-26.3

48

0.1009493

2.725631897

North Carolina

0

15

0.8

24

0.5154825

6.701272304

North Dakota

3

15

12

0.7666468

0.766646805

Ohio

18

-3

28

0.4421306

7.074088835

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.920312

4.60156019

Oregon

7

-8.5

35

0.3400058

1.700028765

Pennsylvania

20

-8

33

0.3489393

6.280906768

Rhode Island

4

-24

46

0.1220991

0.244198178

South Carolina

9

10

19

0.6862442

4.803709419

South Dakota

3

6

22

0.6145276

0.614527631

Tennessee

11

7

20

0.6329447

5.696502126

Texas

38

17

9

0.7952844

28.63023684

Utah

6

42

1

0.9792238

3.916895239

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0362982

0.036298229

Virginia

13

0

-0.3

27

0.4941928

5.436120966

Washington

12

-16.3

42

0.2144928

2.144928295

West Virginia

5

14

13

0.7515341

2.254602228

Wisconsin

10

-6.6

32

0.3743882

2.995105294

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9272618

0.927261773

0

Total

332

206

20.6087

0.5032819

0.44779406

0.48273586

0.443

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.7639348

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

9

0.2788452

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

-3

7

0.4341072

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

0.5

4

0.5110311

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

12.5

3

0.7553312

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9735548

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0300195

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-3.3

8

0.4275874

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1227215

-1

0

18.0802

0.4815575

2

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

2.3

4

0.5661184

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-18.5

28

0.0902459

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-3

16

0.4140362

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

0

8

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-5.6

21

0.3425946

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-17.5

27

0.1026043

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

0

8

0.5

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-3.5

17

0.3999911

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

8

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-13

25

0.1733296

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-23

29

0.047956

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

8

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-2.3

16

0.4338816

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

-28

30

0.0213332

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1.7

4

0.5489724

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

17

2

0.890774

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

1.6

6

0.5461049

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-40

33

0.0018918

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-12.4

24

0.184685

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-10

23

0.2345591

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

3

0.641308

Gain

1

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-4.8

19

0.3641157

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-7.2

22

0.3011073

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

-26

30

0.0299059

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

8

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

26

1

0.9700941

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

8

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

0

8

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-4.7

18

0.3668379

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-17

26

0.109226

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

32

0.0023768

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-4.8

19

0.3641157

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

7

0.5288548

1

0

13.8138

0.3690006

2

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

25

7

15

15

15

12.9

2

0.9599071

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9124959

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

29

8

15

15

15

13.5

1

0.9664487

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-5

-1.7

84

0.408825

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9124959

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-6.1

3

-10

-10

-10

-6.01

105

0.2074995

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

-5

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.5

93

0.3175004

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

109

0.148164

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

72

0.5858981

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

102

0.2361223

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

4.5

5

5

5

10

5.45

52

0.7700999

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

114

0.1272931

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

41

0.8486774

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

3

0.9562672

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

5

-1.6

82

0.4141019

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

82

0.4141019

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

33

0.8782748

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

56

0.7336506

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

96

0.2937321

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

107

0.1712085

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

-5

-5

-2.2

87

0.3827055

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

62

0.6968593

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9167307

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

3

1

0

0

5

1.5

74

0.5806056

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

2.5

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

90

0.3370789

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

46

0.8218073

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

-14

-3

0

-10

-15

-7

107

0.1712085

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

0

4

0

-5

-5

-1.2

79

0.4353559

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8727069

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

37

0.8669642

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

10

7

45

0.8287915

Florida 18

Murphy

West

0.5

1

0

5

5

2.25

70

0.6198795

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

18

0.9081025

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

96

0.2937321

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

0

10

5

5

5

5

55

0.7511595

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

-14

-5

-10

-10

-10

-8.4

114

0.1272931

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

7

-8

-5

-5

-5

-3.9

94

0.2984195

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.33214

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

-7

-2

0

0

-5

-2.1

86

0.387891

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

-1

-1

5

5

5

2.7

67

0.6428911

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

13

-6

0

-5

-5

-1.9

85

0.3983214

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

10

5

10

6.4

49

0.8073092

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

53

0.7680361

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

111

0.1389544

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-5

-5

-15

-5.8

104

0.2157446

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.66786

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

4

4

5

5

5

4.2

59

0.7155391

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-7.3

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.93

95

0.2970097

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-15.5

-3

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

133

0.065234

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

5

0.9321392

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

106

0.1853538

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0875041

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

3.7

-7

0

-5

5

-1.03

78

0.4444495

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9124959

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

-9

3

0

0

-5

-1.3

80

0.4300224

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

8

6

10

10

15

9

28

0.8888921

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

25

0.8939448

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

10

5

15

6.2

50

0.7997973

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1163306

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

44

0.8355981

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

28

0.8888921

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

2

8

10

10

15

8.8

30

0.8836694

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

0

5

0.2

76

0.5108203

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

111

0.1389544

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

5.7

7

10

10

10

7.97

39

0.8601426

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

13.5

2

5

10

10

6.75

48

0.8200336

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

9

0.9208095

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

131

0.0752648

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

19

0.9035477

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

132

0.0678608

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8836694

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0875041

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-8.7

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.87

100

0.2544629

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0964523

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

12

5

5

5

5

5.2

54

0.7596785

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

11.5

2

0

0

5

2.55

68

0.6352734

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

16.5

-1

0

5

5

3.45

63

0.6800786

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

15

10

15

8.6

33

0.8782748

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-13

1

-5

-5

-10

-5.1

101

0.244561

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-5.5

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.35

98

0.2776005

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

-10

-5

-10

-10

-10

-8

111

0.1389544

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

41

0.8486774

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

1

7

0

0

-5

0.5

75

0.5270333

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

9.5

6

15

15

15

11.15

4

0.934766

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-7

0

5

0

5

1.3

74

0.5699776

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

-1

-3

-5

0

-5

-2.7

89

0.3571089

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-12

-5

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

134

0.0643762

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

13

0.9124959

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

5

5

2

71

0.6069034

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

8.5

-2

-5

-5

-5

-2.55

88

0.3647266

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

5

0.9321392

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

0

-5

3.1

65

0.6629211

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

2

12

10

5

10

7.6

41

0.8486774

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

33

0.8782748

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

13

0.9124959

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

24

0.8964079

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

60

0.7062679

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

46

0.8218073

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

-5

-0.4

77

0.4783674

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

10

5

10

7.8

40

0.8549502

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0875041

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

118

0.1111079

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

19

0.9035477

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

22

6

-15

-15

-15

-5.6

103

0.2237707

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

19

0.9035477

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

37

0.8669642

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6479383

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-7

6

0

-5

-5

-1.5

81

0.4193944

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9167307

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

23

0.8988293

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9167307

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

110

0.1450498

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

25

0.8939448

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

10

10

15

9.1

27

0.8914396

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0964523

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

2.5

-13

0

-5

-5

-4.35

98

0.2776005

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

8

0.9247352

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

19

0.9035477

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

2.5

6

0

0

5

2.45

69

0.6301649

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0964523

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

118

0.1111079

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

3.5

13

0

0

5

3.95

61

0.7039285

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

15

5

5

5

5

5.5

51

0.7721534

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

121

0.1011707

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.33214

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

-15

-5

-10

-15

-15

-10.5

130

0.0772087

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

118

0.1111079

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8836694

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0875041

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

7

0.9285108

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

116

0.1217252

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0918975

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

3.5

0

5

5

10

4.35

58

0.7223995

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

10

4.4

57

0.7246682

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