2012 Election Polls and Models (10/25/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 294; Republican 244 (R +71), Obama at 51.9% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 234; Democrats 204;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	19	8	0.8170586	5.719409928
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8829282	0.882928243
Arizona		11	5.3	24	0.5995674	5.396106918
Arkansas		6	22	6	0.8524462	3.409784774
California	55		-16	43	0.2231966	11.82941936
Colorado	0	9	0.2	27	0.5037971	3.526579593
Connecticut	7		-11.8	39	0.2872068	1.436033835
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1705986	0.170598616
DC	3		-75	51	0.000179	0.000178996
Florida	0	29	2.1	25	0.5398037	14.57470046
Georgia		16	13	16	0.7319336	10.24707059
Hawaii	4		-29.5	49	0.0801731	0.160346111
Idaho		4	38	3	0.9647298	1.929459535
Illinois	20		-15	42	0.2376594	4.277869654
Indiana		11	13	16	0.7319336	6.587402522
Iowa	6		-2	31	0.4620858	1.848343339
Kansas		6	18	9	0.8041731	3.216692476
Kentucky		8	15	13	0.7623406	4.574043449
Louisiana		8	18	9	0.8041731	4.825038713
Massachusetts	11		-18	44	0.1958269	1.76244193
Maine	4		-13	41	0.2680664	0.536132773
Maryland	10		-21	46	0.1588023	1.27041844
Michigan	16		-5	34	0.4059597	5.68343594
Minnesota	10		-8	36	0.3517052	2.813641323
Mississippi		6	20	7	0.8294014	3.317605535
Missouri		10	10.3	20	0.6879961	5.503968799
Montana		3	10	21	0.6829276	0.682927607
Nebraska		5	14	14	0.7473781	2.242134181
Nevada	6		-3	32	0.4432358	1.772943106
New Hampshire	0	4	1	26	0.5189785	1.037957092
New Jersey	14		-10	38	0.3170724	3.804868722
New Mexico	5		-9.3	37	0.3290319	0.987095551
New York	29		-26.3	48	0.1053542	2.844562495
North Carolina	0	15	5.6	23	0.6050747	7.865971271
North Dakota		3	14	14	0.7473781	0.74737806
Ohio	18		-1.9	30	0.4639762	7.42361994
Oklahoma		7	30	4	0.9233114	4.616556966
Oregon	7		-7.5	35	0.3605736	1.802868238
Pennsylvania	20		-3.8	33	0.4282456	7.708421211
Rhode Island	4		-25	47	0.1170718	0.234143515
South Carolina		9	12	18	0.7160278	5.012194385
South Dakota		3	9	22	0.6657877	0.665787664
Tennessee		11	12	18	0.7160278	6.444249923
Texas		38	17	11	0.7907516	28.46705861
Utah		6	44	1	0.9818685	3.927473832
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0391332	0.039133223
Virginia	13	0	0	28	0.5	5.5
Washington	12		-12	40	0.2839722	2.839722308
West Virginia		5	16	12	0.7768034	2.330410225
Wisconsin	10		-0.7	29	0.4867125	3.893699686
Wyoming		3	40	2	0.9715192	0.971519156
			0
Total	290	248	21.0128		0.5308227	0.481292756	0.518453748	0.498
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.764038				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.2787535				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	0.8	4	0.5176545	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	12.7	3	0.7588947	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.97361				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.02996				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-2	8	0.4559392				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1226116				-1
			0
			18.0718		0.491042		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	1.3	6	0.5358855			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-23.7	28	0.050284			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-3	18	0.4176685			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	9	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6.5	21	0.326223			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-17.5	27	0.1126556			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	5	3	0.6354924			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-2.5	17	0.4312401	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	9	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13	24	0.183865			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-27.6	30	0.0279172			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	9	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-5	21	0.3645076			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-28	30	0.0261873			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	0.3	7	0.5082919	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	2	0.8805782	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3	4.8	0.5823315			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-40	33	0.00279			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-17.3	26	0.1153285			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-9	23	0.2664502			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	3	0.6354924			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-6	20	0.3388063			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-6.5	21	0.326223			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-27.5	29	0.0283642			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	9	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	26	1	0.9641853			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	9	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	9	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-1	15	0.4723805			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-17	25	0.1194218			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0034441			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-2.4	16	0.4339647			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	7	0.5276195			1
			0
			14.4327		0.3732606		1
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9578805
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096254
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9646118
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	1	3	0	-5	-5	-1.3	79	0.4309332
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096254
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	105	0.2105802
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-2.5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.25	92	0.3317824
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-15	-10	-8.7	115	0.1221202
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	76	0.4786516
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	102	0.2390445
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	0	0	10	3.45	62	0.6778754
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1041697
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	15	10	7.6	44	0.8454764
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9541454
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	1	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.5	80	0.4204401
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	87	0.363921
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	36	0.875148
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	61	0.6850411
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	95	0.2961933
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1744008
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	-5	-5	-2.2	85	0.3842034
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.6944878
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139082
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	0	5	1.5	73	0.5795599
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3.1	91	0.3391002
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	-1	4	10	10	10	6.7	49	0.8150772
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-12	-3	0	-15	-15	-7.8	108	0.1482444
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	2	4	-5	-5	-5	-2	83	0.3944688
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	11	7	5	5	15	7.5	45	0.8422719
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	9	1	15	15	15	10.1	13	0.9117862
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	17	5	10	10	10	8.7	35	0.8778798
Florida 18	Murphy	West	5	1	0	0	5	1.7	71	0.5899968
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	20	0.9051864
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	-1	-5	-10	-5	-5	-5.1	99	0.2474265
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	-3	10	5	5	5	4.7	56	0.7353492
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-9	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7.9	110	0.1451698
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	3	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.3	97	0.282465
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	2	-6	0	-5	-5	-3	90	0.3440129
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-5	-2	0	0	-5	-1.9	82	0.3996296
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	73	0.5426357
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	3	-6	0	-5	-5	-2.9	89	0.3489521
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	10	10	7.4	46	0.839024
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	51	0.7650876
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	111	0.1421383
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-5	-5	-15	-5.8	103	0.2187853
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6657853
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	57	0.712993
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-7.3	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.93	94	0.2994401
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.0678006
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	4	0.9295297
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	106	0.188516
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903746
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	3.7	-7	0	0	5	-0.03	75	0.4983981
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096254
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-9	3	0	-5	-5	-2.3	86	0.3791005
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	6	6	10	10	15	8.8	32	0.8805693
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	28	0.8909088
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	10	10	10	6.2	50	0.7966854
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.1194307
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	47	0.8323981
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	31	0.8858224
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	5.5	8	5	10	15	8.15	40	0.862328
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-4	-3	0	0	-5	-2	83	0.3944688
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	111	0.1421383
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	7	7	10	10	10	8.1	41	0.86085
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	48	0.8168578
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9180373
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0779847
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9005888
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0704703
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	32	0.8805693
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903746
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-6	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3149589
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0994112
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	12	5	5	5	5	5.2	54	0.756784
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	7.5	2	0	0	5	2.15	69	0.6132375
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	11	-1	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6510479
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9005888
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	99	0.2474265
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-5.5	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.35	98	0.280207
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-10	-5	-10	-10	-10	-8	111	0.1421383
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	15	10	15	8.6	36	0.875148
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	1	7	0	0	-5	0.5	74	0.5266783
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	7	6	15	15	15	10.9	6	0.9277054
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	1	0	5	0	5	2.1	70	0.6106735
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-2	-3	-5	0	-5	-2.8	88	0.3539171
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-13	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.3	134	0.0652096
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096254
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	7	0	0	5	10	3.7	60	0.6897801
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	9	-2	-5	-5	5	-0.5	78	0.4733217
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	4	0.9295297
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	0	-5	3.1	65	0.6608998
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	10	10	8.6	36	0.875148
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	36	0.875148
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	14	0.9096254
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	5	10	10	10	15	9.5	25	0.8982298
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7038067
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	15	10	7.8	42	0.8517556
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	76	0.4786516
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	10	5	10	7.8	42	0.8517556
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903746
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141776
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9005888
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	19.5	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.85	104	0.2168152
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	21	0.9005888
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	28	0.8909088
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	2	-1	5	5	5	3	66	0.6559871
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-7	6	0	-5	-5	-1.5	80	0.4204401
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139082
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	26	0.8958303
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139082
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	108	0.1482444
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	28	0.8909088
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	4	10	10	10	15	9.4	26	0.8958303
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0994112
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	4	-13	0	-5	-10	-5.2	101	0.243216
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9220153
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	3	8	10	15	15	9.9	19	0.9074256
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	0	5	2.45	68	0.6285142
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0994112
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141776
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	3.5	13	0	5	5	4.95	55	0.7461854
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	13	5	5	5	5	5.3	53	0.7609555
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1041697
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	4	-3	-5	-10	-5	-4.2	96	0.287007
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.079955
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141776
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	32	0.8805693
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903746
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9258452
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	114	0.124852
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0948136
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	3.5	0	5	5	5	3.35	63	0.673061
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	10	10	5.4	51	0.7650876