Below is the result of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for global carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere (CO2).
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| 26 | |||||||
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| R2 | 1.00 | |||||||
| Adjusted R2 | 1.00 | |||||||
| SE | 0.619 | |||||||
| Term | Coefficient | 95% CI | SE | t statistic | DF | p | ||
| Intercept | 391.7 | -155.6 | to 939.1 | 241.95 | 1.62 | 9 | 0.1399 | |
| Temp | 3.437 | -0.725 | to 7.598 | 1.8397 | 1.87 | 9 | 0.0946 | |
| Temp5 | 6.772 | -8.159 | to 21.703 | 6.6002 | 1.03 | 9 | 0.3317 | |
| Energy Cost | 1.29 | -1.47 | to 4.05 | 1.218 | 1.06 | 9 | 0.3173 | |
| Energy Cons | 8.6712E-08 | -6.1142E-07 | to 7.8484E-07 | 3.0861E-007 | 0.28 | 9 | 0.7851 | |
| USP | -7.274 | -132.694 | to 118.145 | 55.4423 | -0.13 | 9 | 0.8985 | |
| CO2 GDP | -0.05882 | -0.12638 | to 0.00873 | 0.029862 | -1.97 | 9 | 0.0804 | |
| CO2 GDP1 | -0.001466 | -0.071025 | to 0.068093 | 0.0307489 | -0.05 | 9 | 0.9630 | |
| Wind KWH1 | 41.13 | -59.46 | to 141.73 | 44.469 | 0.92 | 9 | 0.3791 | |
| Solar KWH1 | -41.16 | -222.38 | to 140.06 | 80.109 | -0.51 | 9 | 0.6198 | |
| Geo KWH1 | 25.52 | -61.49 | to 112.52 | 38.461 | 0.66 | 9 | 0.5236 | |
| Hydro KWH1 | 5.829 | -50.193 | to 61.852 | 24.7651 | 0.24 | 9 | 0.8192 | |
| BIO KWH1 | 11.45 | -76.58 | to 99.47 | 38.913 | 0.29 | 9 | 0.7753 | |
| NP KWH1 | 29.63 | -269.11 | to 328.38 | 132.061 | 0.22 | 9 | 0.8275 | |
| Oil KWH1 | -4.139 | -55.000 | to 46.721 | 22.4831 | -0.18 | 9 | 0.8580 | |
| NG KWH1 | 0.4164 | -34.1482 | to 34.9810 | 15.27949 | 0.03 | 9 | 0.9789 | |
| Coal KWH1 | -7.136 | -110.263 | to 95.991 | 45.5879 | -0.16 | 9 | 0.8791 |
| Source of variation | Sum squares | DF | Mean square | F statistic | p |
| Model | 4525.943 | 16 | 282.871 | 737.33 | <0.0001 |
| Residual | 3.453 | 9 | 0.384 | ||
| Total | 4529.395 | 25 |
| Coefficients | Coefficient Value | Value | CO2 Levels | | Ave | CO2 Levels |
| Intercept | 391.7 | 1.00E+00 | 3.92E+02 | | 1.00E+00 | 391.7 |
| Coal KWH1 | -7.136 | 1.48E+00 | -1.06E+01 | | 9.00E-01 | -6.4224 |
| NG KWH1 | 0.4164 | 4.71E+00 | 1.96E+00 | | 3.10E+00 | 1.29084 |
| Oil KWH1 | -4.139 | 1.85E+00 | -7.66E+00 | | 1.15E+00 | -4.75985 |
| NP KWH1 | 29.63 | 2.30E-01 | 6.81E+00 | | 2.30E-01 | 6.8149 |
| Hydro KWH1 | 5.829 | 3.67E-01 | 2.14E+00 | | 3.67E-01 | 2.139243 |
| Geo KWH1 | 25.52 | 9.20E-02 | 2.35E+00 | | 9.20E-02 | 2.34784 |
| Solar KWh1 | -41.16 | 4.17E-02 | -1.72E+00 | | 5.00E-01 | -20.58 |
| Wind KWH1 | 41.13 | 1.43E-01 | 5.88E+00 | | 1.40E+00 | 57.582 |
| CO2 GDP | -0.05882 | 5.10E+02 | -3.00E+01 | | 4.80E+02 | -28.2336 |
| CO2 GDP1 | -0.001466 | 4.16E+02 | -6.10E-01 | | 3.90E+02 | -0.57174 |
| USP | -7.274 | 1.80E-01 | -1.31E+00 | | 1.50E-01 | -1.0911 |
| Energy Cost | 1.29 | 1.00E+01 | 1.29E+01 | | 1.00E+01 | 12.9 |
| Biomass KWH1 | 11.45 | 3.21E-01 | 3.68E+00 | | 3.21E-01 | 3.67545 |
| Energy ConsP | 8.67E-08 | 9.46E+07 | 8.20E+00 | | 5.50E+07 | 4.76916 |
| Temp | 3.437 | 7.00E-01 | 2.41E+00 | | 7.00E-01 | 2.4059 |
| Temp1 | 6.772 | 6.50E-01 | 4.40E+00 | | 6.50E-01 | 4.4018 |
| Result | | | 3.91E+02 | | | 428.368443 |
The model has excellent correlation as shown by the R² variable equal to 1. The results indicate that the 2009 value for CO2 levels in our atmosphere can increase from 390 parts per million to 428 parts per million by decreasing the United States reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil by 25% and increasing the United States reliance on Solar and Wind energy by 25% (highlighted in red). Nuclear power, hydro power, biomass, and geothermal variables were held constant. Other 2009 variables were adjusted to keep up with the trends of using renewable energies such as increased energy costs, higher global temperatures (Temp and Temp5 – even with lower CO2 emissions the global temperature trend is upward), lower energy consumption (including the USP variable), and lower CO2 to GDP numbers.
This result makes a lot of sense since an increased reliance of renewable energy sources in the United States will not affect global emissions very much since the United States only accounts for 16% of the total greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. Besides, even a massive increase in the global usage of renewable energy sources will never completely eliminate carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.
The best conclusion that can be drawn from this model is that while CO2 emissions increased by nearly 10% in our atmosphere; the model indicates that global temperatures would decline. This violates the hypothesis created by the global warming community that CO2 emissions are making the earth warmer. Keep in mind that models are only as good as the variables, correlation, and trends that currently exist. If, for instance, a trend changes, it can render any model useless. But the bottom line is it easy to build a model that contradicts the findings of climate change scientists.
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