Tuesday, November 22, 2011

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part V)

Below is the result of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for energy costs.

R2

0.99

             

Adjusted R2

0.98

             

SE

0.160

             
                 

Term

Coefficient

95% CI

SE

t statistic

DF

p

 

Intercept

-54.18

-209.34

to 100.98

68.589

-0.79

9

0.4499

 

Temp

-0.7734

-1.8957

to 0.3489

0.49610

-1.56

9

0.1534

 

Temp5

-2.971

-6.370

to 0.427

1.5024

-1.98

9

0.0794

 

CO2

0.08585

-0.09759

to 0.26929

0.081091

1.06

9

0.3173

 

Energy Cons

4.8707E-08

-1.2841E-07

to 2.2583E-07

7.8298E-008

0.62

9

0.5493

 

USP

-32.38

-53.66

to -11.10

9.405

-3.44

9

0.0074

 

CO2 GDP

0.003283

-0.017417

to 0.023984

0.0091507

0.36

9

0.7280

 

CO2 GDP1

-0.00312

-0.02091

to 0.01467

0.007865

-0.40

9

0.7008

 

Coal KWH1

7.484

-18.552

to 33.520

11.5094

0.65

9

0.5318

 

NG KWH1

2.443

-6.282

to 11.168

3.8569

0.63

9

0.5422

 

Oil KWH1

3.494

-9.384

to 16.373

5.6931

0.61

9

0.5545

 

NP KWH1

12.32

-64.40

to 89.05

33.916

0.36

9

0.7247

 

BIO KWH1

2.213

-20.543

to 24.970

10.0598

0.22

9

0.8308

 

Hydro KWH1

2.26

-12.14

to 16.66

6.364

0.36

9

0.7307

 

Geo KWH1

-6.728

-29.148

to 15.693

9.9112

-0.68

9

0.5143

 

Solar KWH1

13.88

-32.38

to 60.15

20.450

0.68

9

0.5142

 

Wind KWH1

4.848

-22.062

to 31.758

11.8956

0.41

9

0.6931

 

Source of variation

Sum squares

DF

Mean square

F statistic

p

Model

27.078

16

1.692

66.28

<0.0001

Residual

0.230

9

0.026

   

Total

27.308

25

     

Coefficients

Coefficient Value

Value

Energy Cost

Ave

Energy Cost

Intercept

-54.18

1.00E+00

-5.42E+01

1.00E+00

-54.18

Coal KWH1

7.484

1.48E+00

1.11E+01

9.00E-01

6.7356

NG KWH1

2.443

4.71E+00

1.15E+01

3.10E+00

7.5733

Oil KWH1

3.494

1.85E+00

6.46E+00

1.15E+00

4.0181

NP KWH1

12.32

2.30E-01

2.83E+00

2.30E-01

2.8336

Hydro KWH1

2.26

3.67E-01

8.29E-01

3.67E-01

0.82942

Geo KWH1

-6.728

9.20E-02

-6.19E-01

9.20E-02

-0.618976

Solar KWh1

13.88

4.17E-02

5.79E-01

5.00E-01

6.94

Wind KWH1

4.848

1.43E-01

6.93E-01

1.40E+00

6.7872

CO2 GDP

0.003283

5.10E+02

1.67E+00

4.80E+02

1.57584

CO2 GDP1

-0.00312

4.16E+02

-1.30E+00

3.90E+02

-1.2168

USP

-32.38

1.80E-01

-5.83E+00

1.60E-01

-5.1808

Temp

-0.7734

7.00E-01

-5.41E-01

7.00E-01

-0.54138

Biomass KWH1

2.213

3.21E-01

7.10E-01

3.21E-01

0.710373

Energy ConsP

4.87E-08

9.46E+07

4.61E+00

5.50E+07

2.678885

CO2

0.08585

3.90E+02

3.35E+01

4.30E+02

36.9155

Temp5

-2.971

6.50E-01

-1.93E+00

7.00E-01

-2.0797

Result

1.01E+01

13.780162

The model has excellent correlation as shown by the R² variable equal to 0.99. The results indicate that the 2009 value for energy costs can increase from 10 cents per kilowatt – hour to 13.8 cents per kilowatt - hour by decreasing the United States reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil by 25% and increasing the United States reliance on Solar and Wind energy by 25% (highlighted in red). Nuclear power, hydro power, biomass, and geothermal variables were held constant. Other 2009 variables were adjusted to keep up with the trends of using renewable energies such as increased energy costs, higher global temperatures (Temp and Temp5 – even with lower CO2 emissions the global temperature trend is upward), lower energy consumption (including the USP variable), and lower CO2 to GDP numbers.

This result makes sense (38% increase in energy costs) since renewable energy sources are much more expensive. And what’s worse this analysis does not include potential energy cost increases if cap and trade legislation passes.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

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