The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part V)

Below is the result of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for energy costs.

R2	0.99
Adjusted R2	0.98
SE	0.160
Term	Coefficient	95% CI	SE	t statistic	DF	p
Intercept	-54.18	-209.34	to 100.98	68.589	-0.79	9	0.4499
Temp	-0.7734	-1.8957	to 0.3489	0.49610	-1.56	9	0.1534
Temp5	-2.971	-6.370	to 0.427	1.5024	-1.98	9	0.0794
CO2	0.08585	-0.09759	to 0.26929	0.081091	1.06	9	0.3173
Energy Cons	4.8707E-08	-1.2841E-07	to 2.2583E-07	7.8298E-008	0.62	9	0.5493
USP	-32.38	-53.66	to -11.10	9.405	-3.44	9	0.0074
CO2 GDP	0.003283	-0.017417	to 0.023984	0.0091507	0.36	9	0.7280
CO2 GDP1	-0.00312	-0.02091	to 0.01467	0.007865	-0.40	9	0.7008
Coal KWH1	7.484	-18.552	to 33.520	11.5094	0.65	9	0.5318
NG KWH1	2.443	-6.282	to 11.168	3.8569	0.63	9	0.5422
Oil KWH1	3.494	-9.384	to 16.373	5.6931	0.61	9	0.5545
NP KWH1	12.32	-64.40	to 89.05	33.916	0.36	9	0.7247
BIO KWH1	2.213	-20.543	to 24.970	10.0598	0.22	9	0.8308
Hydro KWH1	2.26	-12.14	to 16.66	6.364	0.36	9	0.7307
Geo KWH1	-6.728	-29.148	to 15.693	9.9112	-0.68	9	0.5143
Solar KWH1	13.88	-32.38	to 60.15	20.450	0.68	9	0.5142
Wind KWH1	4.848	-22.062	to 31.758	11.8956	0.41	9	0.6931

Source of variation	Sum squares	DF	Mean square	F statistic	p
Model	27.078	16	1.692	66.28	<0.0001
Residual	0.230	9	0.026
Total	27.308	25

Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	Energy Cost		Ave	Energy Cost
Intercept	-54.18	1.00E+00	-5.42E+01		1.00E+00	-54.18
Coal KWH1	7.484	1.48E+00	1.11E+01		9.00E-01	6.7356
NG KWH1	2.443	4.71E+00	1.15E+01		3.10E+00	7.5733
Oil KWH1	3.494	1.85E+00	6.46E+00		1.15E+00	4.0181
NP KWH1	12.32	2.30E-01	2.83E+00		2.30E-01	2.8336
Hydro KWH1	2.26	3.67E-01	8.29E-01		3.67E-01	0.82942
Geo KWH1	-6.728	9.20E-02	-6.19E-01		9.20E-02	-0.618976
Solar KWh1	13.88	4.17E-02	5.79E-01		5.00E-01	6.94
Wind KWH1	4.848	1.43E-01	6.93E-01		1.40E+00	6.7872
CO2 GDP	0.003283	5.10E+02	1.67E+00		4.80E+02	1.57584
CO2 GDP1	-0.00312	4.16E+02	-1.30E+00		3.90E+02	-1.2168
USP	-32.38	1.80E-01	-5.83E+00		1.60E-01	-5.1808
Temp	-0.7734	7.00E-01	-5.41E-01		7.00E-01	-0.54138
Biomass KWH1	2.213	3.21E-01	7.10E-01		3.21E-01	0.710373
Energy ConsP	4.87E-08	9.46E+07	4.61E+00		5.50E+07	2.678885
CO2	0.08585	3.90E+02	3.35E+01		4.30E+02	36.9155
Temp5	-2.971	6.50E-01	-1.93E+00		7.00E-01	-2.0797
Result			1.01E+01			13.780162

The model has excellent correlation as shown by the R² variable equal to 0.99. The results indicate that the 2009 value for energy costs can increase from 10 cents per kilowatt – hour to 13.8 cents per kilowatt - hour by decreasing the United States reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil by 25% and increasing the United States reliance on Solar and Wind energy by 25% (highlighted in red). Nuclear power, hydro power, biomass, and geothermal variables were held constant. Other 2009 variables were adjusted to keep up with the trends of using renewable energies such as increased energy costs, higher global temperatures (Temp and Temp5 – even with lower CO2 emissions the global temperature trend is upward), lower energy consumption (including the USP variable), and lower CO2 to GDP numbers.

This result makes sense (38% increase in energy costs) since renewable energy sources are much more expensive. And what’s worse this analysis does not include potential energy cost increases if cap and trade legislation passes.

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