The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part I)

What is the relationship between energy costs, global temperatures, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and energy consumption? They are not only closely related, they correlate almost perfectly. Data for all four classifications (energy costs, global temperatures, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption) was evaluated over the past 26 years (1984 – 2009 – this is the last year data was available). Each classification (energy costs, global temperatures, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption) was evaluated using the cost and usage of various energy sources: coal, natural gas, oil, hydro, solar, nuclear, wind, biomass and geothermal. This data was obtained from multiple sources including the Department of Energy (U.S. energy information page) and from a few climate change sites that report global temperatures and CO2 levels in the atmosphere. A linear error model was created to evaluate the data to see its impact on energy costs, global temperatures, CO2 emissions, and energy consumption. To understand how to create and evaluate a linear error model please refer to my blogs: Creating an Election Model Part I, Part II, and Part III on October 4, 5, and 6 2010. Below is the data used in the linear error model:

Year	Temp	Temp5	CO2	Energy Cost	USP	Energy Cons	CO2 GDP	CO2 GDP1	Coal KWH1	NG KWH1	Oil KWH1	NP KWH1	BIO KWH1	Hydro KWH1	Geo KWH1	Solar KWH1	Wind KWH1
1984	0.13	0.16	344.42	6.25	0.241588	76,713,905	830	701	1.4305119	4.1803792	3.2815861	0.103086	0.2586444	0.491240922	0.04306401	2.2344E-05	1.4799E-05
1985	0.12	0.22	345.9	6.44	0.235288	76,490,692	820	672	1.4251773	4.0072186	3.3615293	0.1202246	0.2669266	0.438086805	0.05264189	4.5841E-05	1.32745E-05
1986	0.18	0.24	347.15	6.44	0.230906	76,756,373	810	650	1.452073	3.9395768	3.2824795	0.1304031	0.2618799	0.457170483	0.05872764	6.127E-05	9.82465E-06
1987	0.34	0.26	348.93	6.37	0.232802	79,172,664	800	651	1.4884201	4.052258	3.1347853	0.1405256	0.2549434	0.389378318	0.06095451	4.5108E-05	8.20286E-06
1988	0.41	0.33	351.48	6.35	0.235984	82,819,365	790	654	1.5020819	4.079081	3.0037374	0.1618715	0.2621525	0.338153948	0.05666	3.8129E-05	1.95568E-06
1989	0.27	0.38	352.91	6.45	0.235905	84,943,729	780	643	1.5372354	4.1101475	2.7837345	0.1612691	0.2728448	0.408380604	0.08217137	0.02228322	0.00475697
1990	0.47	0.34	354.19	6.57	0.231887	84,651,424	770	625	1.5865355	4.1374145	2.6365779	0.172269	0.2315601	0.429856343	0.08528884	0.02359397	0.006139483
1991	0.42	0.29	355.59	6.75	0.231098	84,606,296	766	621	1.5338165	4.1351803	2.6712938	0.1821072	0.2366436	0.427603296	0.08836422	0.0248863	0.00654943
1992	0.14	0.3	356.37	6.82	0.236123	85,955,467	755	612	1.546787	4.1924503	2.604929	0.1847864	0.2508336	0.373245257	0.08966037	0.02550833	0.006387677
1993	0.17	0.29	357.04	6.93	0.238454	87,601,399	745	607	1.4844886	4.3411896	2.5393931	0.1871848	0.2547774	0.422171471	0.09558365	0.02716777	0.006786088
1994	0.3	0.28	358.88	6.91	0.240162	89,256,869	729	592	1.5659371	4.3668369	2.3872056	0.1888506	0.2562424	0.378534297	0.08584965	0.02707469	0.007524257
1995	0.44	0.33	360.88	6.89	0.238916	91,169,286	717	583	1.5515063	4.2811497	2.3366462	0.198424	0.2607326	0.449449185	0.07417759	0.02742704	0.006863084
1996	0.36	0.43	362.84	6.86	0.241701	94,172,227	710	582	1.5687341	4.2609308	2.2670406	0.1951213	0.2606299	0.494179841	0.0781887	0.02730397	0.006905414
1997	0.38	0.46	363.76	6.85	0.241752	94,761,405	686	564	1.6046652	4.2723039	2.2565676	0.1816583	0.2567431	0.501228068	0.08053422	0.02707679	0.006935284
1998	0.7	0.45	366.63	6.74	0.245347	95,178,462	659	545	1.6461016	4.296635	2.1745415	0.193541	0.2406126	0.451423654	0.08091063	0.02675413	0.006336463
1999	0.43	0.49	368.31	6.64	0.248991	96,812,431	633	526	1.6198953	4.3037291	2.0779723	0.211681	0.2474275	0.454441761	0.08284129	0.0267889	0.009574141
2000	0.41	0.55	369.48	6.81	0.239983	98,969,664	624	521	1.5902187	4.4006801	2.0745111	0.2199708	0.2522749	0.393243486	0.07976915	0.02600341	0.011972448
2001	0.56	0.55	371.02	7.29	0.240135	96,316,206	607	506	1.6378856	4.4885591	2.0502718	0.2233881	0.2190373	0.311877905	0.07794314	0.02549592	0.014527239
2002	0.68	0.58	373.1	7.2	0.236797	97,853,419	602	501	1.6024089	4.3848167	2.057759	0.2296704	0.228847	0.379100808	0.08331345	0.02541817	0.022275168
2003	0.65	0.65	375.64	7.44	0.229022	98,130,959	592	493	1.5736934	4.47503	2.0558244	0.2267584	0.2397917	0.40237339	0.08476128	0.02537665	0.024482094
2004	0.59	0.67	377.38	7.61	0.218337	100,313,215	583	485	1.6241176	4.3379936	1.9620924	0.2337373	0.2556507	0.382372132	0.08726753	0.02567078	0.030222656
2005	0.77	0.68	379.97	8.14	0.207232	100,444,707	568	473	1.6657972	4.2662489	1.8903268	0.2345334	0.2675885	0.388399099	0.08860759	0.02660753	0.038385518
2006	0.65	0.66	381.88	8.9	0.200377	99,789,632	547	454	1.676328	4.2891668	1.8266393	0.2315597	0.2727646	0.404333136	0.08697873	0.02849909	0.055752899
2007	0.75	0.68	384	9.13	0.19661	101,527,089	544	452	1.6403719	4.4296163	1.7966175	0.236157	0.2923386	0.341636389	0.08765979	0.03165016	0.071326483
2008	0.55	0.65	387	9.74	0.19	99,401,914	529	436	1.6242809	4.5401069	1.7175183	0.22956	0.3160297	0.342013483	0.08836366	0.03686118	0.111455643
2009P	0.72	0.7	391	9.89	0.180645	94,578,267	510	416	1.4785753	4.7142289	1.8486182	0.2288414	0.3206854	0.36749038	0.09209944	0.04165733	0.143335169

Where Temp and Temp5 are the annual and 5 year average of global temperature increases over the 1950 to 1980 average global temperatures respectively; CO2 is the annual increase in CO2 emissions in the earth’s atmosphere in parts per million; Energy Cost is the average annual cost for electricity in kilowatt – hours; USP is the percentage of the annual contribution of global emissions by the United States; Energy Cons is the annual energy consumption by the United States in billions of British Thermal Units (BTUs – 3,412 BTUs is equal to 1 kilowatt-hour of electricity); CO2 GDP and CO2 GDP1 are equal to the United States carbon emissions output to produce one dollar of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revenue; and Coal KWH1, NG KWH1, Oil KWH1, NP KWH1, Bio KWH1, Hydro KWH1, Geo KWH1, Solar KWH1, and Wind KWH1 are the annual cost and percentage of use of coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear power, biomass, hydro power, geothermal, solar, and wind energy sources. In the next part of this series of blogs a linear regression analysis on the above model will be completed to solve for energy consumption.

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