A Summary of CO2 Models

Over the past year I have been blogging continuously over the issue of “manmade” climate change. First, I do not believe that manmade climate change is happening, but I do believe that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions can be dangerous in large amounts. Thus, I have been researching to find a smart solution to combat CO2 without overreacting and destroying the economy with cap and trade policies. Here is summary of my past posts:

I ran a linear regression model to understand the relationship between global temperatures, carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, the cost of electricity, and energy consumption when increasing our reliance on renewable energies (wind and solar) by 25% and reducing our reliance on fossil fuels by 25%. In parenthesis are the results of increasing our reliance on nuclear energy by 25% instead of wind and solar.

• Carbon emissions in our atmosphere increased from 391 to 428 (391 to 414) parts per million (ppm)
• The global temperature decreased from 0.7 degrees to -1.84 (increase from 0.7 to 1) degrees from our 1980 global temperature levels
• Energy consumption in the United States decreased 3 times (increase 25%)
• The cost of energy increased by 38% (decrease by 22%)
• The increased nuclear energy usage analysis proves there is little that can be done to combat global warming meanwhile; the increased wind and solar energy usage analysis proves the relationship between global temperatures and CO2 emissions are not necessarily directly proportional as global warming alarmists insist.

These results show there is no directly proportional relationship between global temperatures and CO2 emissions. The fact that CO2 is always increasing in our environment follows Thermodynamics Second Law that states the entropy in the universe is always increasing. Entropy measures the disorder or imperfections of a system. In other words, all products and life forms have imperfections. For instance, a human being and car have imperfections and emit carbon byproducts. Even if the world miraculously used green energy 90% of the time, CO2 emissions in our atmosphere will continue to increase. Thus, the billions of dollars that global governments are spending to make their power grids smart and to convert to renewable energies is a total waste of time and money. Thankfully, there are a few climate scientists that have some commonsense: Klaus Lackner from Columbia University and David Keith from Calgary University. They are developing promising carbon scrubbing technology that will not affect our lifestyles one bit while at the same time lowering CO2 levels in our atmosphere. Here are links to their studies:

http://www.physorg.com/news141915261.html

http://www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/articles/view/2523

There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a conservative that is conscience of their carbon footprint for a few simple reasons. Reducing our carbon footprint lessens the amount of pollutants that enter the air we breathe and secondly, it can save us hundreds of dollars annually in energy bills. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has an online calculator so each individual can compute their CO2 emissions. In other words, this calculator reveals the carbon footprint of each individual and family. This site is located at: http://epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_calculator.html.

For more detailed information about global warming, climate change, and carbon emissions please refer to my earlier blogs: A Commonsense Solution to CO2 (Parts I through IV) and The Relationship between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2 Emissions, and Energy Consumption (Parts I through VI)

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part VIII)

Below are the results for Energy Cost and Energy Consumption with the U.S. consuming more 25% more nuclear energy and 25% less fossil fuels (Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas).

Energy Cost
R Square	0.99
SE	1.60E-01
Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	Energy Cost		Ave	Energy Cost
Intercept	-54.18	1.00E+00	-5.42E+01		1.00E+00	-54.18
Coal KWH1	7.484	1.48E+00	1.11E+01		9.00E-01	6.7356
NG KWH1	2.443	4.71E+00	1.15E+01		3.10E+00	7.5733
Oil KWH1	3.494	1.85E+00	6.46E+00		1.15E+00	4.0181
NP KWH1	12.32	2.30E-01	2.83E+00		7.00E-01	8.624
Hydro KWH1	2.26	3.67E-01	8.29E-01		3.67E-01	0.82942
Geo KWH1	-6.728	9.20E-02	-6.19E-01		9.20E-02	-0.618976
Solar KWh1	13.88	4.17E-02	5.79E-01		4.17E-02	0.578796
Wind KWH1	4.848	1.43E-01	6.93E-01		1.43E-01	0.693264
CO2 GDP	0.003283	5.10E+02	1.67E+00		4.80E+02	1.57584
CO2 GDP1	-0.00312	4.16E+02	-1.30E+00		3.90E+02	-1.2168
USP	-32.38	1.80E-01	-5.83E+00		1.70E-01	-5.5046
Temp	-0.7734	7.00E-01	-5.41E-01		1.00E+00	-0.7734
Biomass KWH1	2.213	3.21E-01	7.10E-01		3.21E-01	0.710373
Energy ConsP	4.87E-08	9.46E+07	4.61E+00		1.10E+08	5.35777
CO2	0.08585	3.90E+02	3.35E+01		4.15E+02	35.62775
Temp5	-2.971	6.50E-01	-1.93E+00		7.50E-01	-2.22825
Result			1.01E+01			7.802187
Energy Consumption
R Square	1
SE	6.70E+05
Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	Energy Consumption	Ave	Energy Consumption
Intercept	378255947	1.00E+00	3.78E+08		1.00E+00	378255947
Coal KWH1	-66478559	1.48E+00	-9.84E+07		9.00E-01	-59830703.1
NG KWH1	-21325244	4.71E+00	-1.00E+08		3.10E+00	-66108256.4
Oil KWH1	-42947504	1.85E+00	-7.95E+07		1.15E+00	-49389629.6
NP KWH1	-176333962	2.30E-01	-4.06E+07		7.00E-01	-123433773.4
Hydro KWH1	-32454908	3.67E-01	-1.19E+07		3.67E-01	-11910951.24
Geo KWH1	-10174301	9.20E-02	-9.36E+05		9.20E-02	-936035.692
Solar KWh1	-79532965	4.17E-02	-3.32E+06		4.17E-02	-3316524.641
Wind KWH1	-109678477	1.43E-01	-1.57E+07		1.43E-01	-15684022.21
CO2 GDP	-9505	5.10E+02	-4.85E+06		4.80E+02	-4562400
CO2 GDP1	25085	4.16E+02	1.04E+07		3.90E+02	9783150
USP	35774485	1.80E-01	6.44E+06		1.70E-01	6081662.45
Temp	1003424	7.00E-01	7.02E+05		1.00E+00	1003424
Biomass KWH1	-8995579	3.21E-01	-2.89E+06		3.21E-01	-2887580.859
Energy Cost	8.46E+05	1.00E+01	8.46E+06		8.00E+00	6771080
CO2	100280	3.90E+02	3.91E+07		4.15E+02	41616200
Temp5	14160839	6.50E-01	9.20E+06		7.50E-01	10620629.25
Result			9.42E+07			116072215.6

These results are also what one may suspect. Energy costs will go down over 20%, but at the same time energy consumption will go up over 20%. When electricity costs go down consumption goes up since people have little incentive to save energy. This may be the best argument for using wind and solar energy since their higher costs force people to consume less energy.

What does this analysis on nuclear energy show or prove? It shows that any attempt of the United States to move to cleaner energy sources does very little to combat global warming and CO2 emissions. The reason for this is simple, the earth is warming normally and there is nothing anyone can do about that trend.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

Obama’s Lowlights (11/28/11)

Satellites – According to ABC news, U.S. satellites have been twice taken over by cyber-attacks.

Occupy Wall Street – They held a moment of silence for the man who shot out a window at the White House this past week. In New York, several police officers were injured during the riots, including one who was stabbed with a broken bottle.

Smallpox – The administration approved a 500 million dollar loan to Ciga, a manufacturer of the smallpox vaccine, even though the U.S. already has enough vaccines for every person in the country.

PETA – PETA started a campaign against the cartoon “Super Mario” because they believe it promotes the wearing of animal fur. PETA is also suing Sea World over what they call the “enslaving animals”.

Christmas Trees – Due to public outrage, the administration’s Department of Agriculture dropped its proposed tax on Christmas Trees.

Free Wall Street – A new movement, Free Wall Street, was started to counter the Occupy Wall Street movement. Free movement protestors want Occupy movement protestors to get a job.

Steven Chu – The Head of the Energy Department, Steven Chu, testified before the House Oversight Committee about the Solyndra debacle. Chu claims “Nothing is really our fault” about the failed 528 million dollar loan. Chu also testified that Steve Spinner had nothing to do with the Solyndra loan even though dozens of emails exist with Spinner providing input on the deal.

Balanced Budget Amendment – Legislation brought forth in the House fell 23 votes shy of its required two thirds majority to pass.

Occupy DC – The movement expanded to occupy the city’s rush hour. How exactly does disrupting hard working citizens from commuting home going to make the movement’s point they support the bottom 99%? Let’s see, I am no math genius, but this stunt will inconvenience 99 out of every 100 people the movement claims to represent. This is just plain stupidity.

Energy - President Obama's United States Department of Agriculture has delayed shale gas drilling in Ohio for up to six months by cancelling a mineral lease auction for Wayne National Forest (WNF). The move was taken in deference to environmentalists, on the pretext of studying the effects of hydraulic fracturing.

EU – The U.K. Telegraph reported that Brussels bureaucrats were ridiculed this past week after banning drink manufacturers from claiming that water can prevent dehydration.

Water Plant – An Illinois water plant was hit with a cyber-attack that not only confiscated information and disabled software, but also did physical damage to the plant.

Middle East – Riots and protests have started up again in Egypt as free elections approach.

Shepard Fairey – The man responsible for Obama’s Hope and Change poster during his 2008 campaign has redesigned it for OWS with the following phrase: “Mister President, we HOPE you’re on our side”.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part VII)

To be fair to solar and wind power, I performed a similar analysis on the same model except this time we kept solar and wind usage constant while increasing the use of nuclear power by 25%. Oil and coal usage were each reduced 10% and natural gas usage was reduced 5% (same as in the previous model analysis of increasing wind and solar energy usage). Below are the results solving for CO2 emissions in our atmosphere and the annual and five year average of global temperatures.

CO2
R Square	1
SE	6.20E-01
Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	CO2 Levels		Ave	CO2 Levels
Intercept	391.7	1.00E+00	3.92E+02		1.00E+00	391.7
Coal KWH1	-7.136	1.48E+00	-1.06E+01		9.00E-01	-6.4224
NG KWH1	0.4164	4.71E+00	1.96E+00		3.10E+00	1.29084
Oil KWH1	-4.139	1.85E+00	-7.66E+00		1.15E+00	-4.75985
NP KWH1	29.63	2.30E-01	6.81E+00		7.00E-01	20.741
Hydro KWH1	5.829	3.67E-01	2.14E+00		3.67E-01	2.139243
Geo KWH1	25.52	9.20E-02	2.35E+00		9.20E-02	2.34784
Solar KWh1	-41.16	4.17E-02	-1.72E+00		4.17E-02	-1.716372
Wind KWH1	41.13	1.43E-01	5.88E+00		1.43E-01	5.88159
CO2 GDP	-0.05882	5.10E+02	-3.00E+01		4.80E+02	-28.2336
CO2 GDP1	-0.001466	4.16E+02	-6.10E-01		3.90E+02	-0.57174
USP	-7.274	1.80E-01	-1.31E+00		1.70E-01	-1.23658
Energy Cost	1.29	1.00E+01	1.29E+01		8.00E+00	10.32
Biomass KWH1	11.45	3.21E-01	3.68E+00		3.21E-01	3.67545
Energy ConsP	8.67E-08	9.46E+07	8.20E+00		1.10E+08	9.53832
Temp	3.437	7.00E-01	2.41E+00		1.00E+00	3.437
Temp1	6.772	6.50E-01	4.40E+00		7.50E-01	5.079
Result			3.91E+02			413.209741
Temp5
R Square	0.99
SE	3.00E-02
Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	Temperature		Ave	Temperature
Intercept	-23.22	1.00E+00	-2.32E+01		1.00E+00	-23.22
Coal KWH1	3.359	1.48E+00	4.97E+00		9.00E-01	3.0231
NG KWH1	1.007	4.71E+00	4.74E+00		3.10E+00	3.1217
Oil KWH1	1.93	1.85E+00	3.57E+00		1.15E+00	2.2195
NP KWH1	8.649	2.30E-01	1.99E+00		7.00E-01	6.0543
Hydro KWH1	1.534	3.67E-01	5.63E-01		3.67E-01	0.562978
Geo KWH1	0.1988	9.20E-02	1.83E-02		9.20E-02	0.0182896
Solar KWh1	3.739	4.17E-02	1.56E-01		4.17E-02	0.1559163
Wind KWH1	2.843	1.43E-01	4.07E-01		1.43E-01	0.406549
CO2 GDP	-0.000432	5.10E+02	-2.20E-01		4.80E+02	-0.20736
CO2 GDP1	0.0002631	4.16E+02	1.09E-01		3.90E+02	0.102609
USP	-2.602	1.80E-01	-4.68E-01		1.70E-01	-0.44234
Energy Cost	-0.102	1.00E+01	-1.02E+00		8.00E+00	-0.816
Biomass KWH1	1.463	3.21E-01	4.70E-01		3.21E-01	0.469623
Energy ConsP	2.80E-08	9.46E+07	2.65E+00		1.10E+08	3.07571
CO2	0.01546	3.90E+02	6.03E+00		4.15E+02	6.4159
Temp	-0.09777	7.00E-01	-6.84E-02		1.00E+00	-0.09777
Result			6.74E-01			0.8427049
Temp
R Square	0.92
SE	9.50E-02
Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	Temperature		Ave	Temperature
Intercept	-71.98	1.00E+00	-7.20E+01		1.00E+00	-71.98
Coal KWH1	9.077	1.48E+00	1.34E+01		9.00E-01	8.1693
NG KWH1	2.671	4.71E+00	1.26E+01		3.10E+00	8.2801
Oil KWH1	4.071	1.85E+00	7.53E+00		1.15E+00	4.68165
NP KWH1	21.33	2.30E-01	4.91E+00		7.00E-01	14.931
Hydro KWH1	3.985	3.67E-01	1.46E+00		3.67E-01	1.462495
Geo KWH1	-4.161	9.20E-02	-3.83E-01		9.20E-02	-0.382812
Solar KWh1	4.266	4.17E-02	1.78E-01		4.17E-02	0.1778922
Wind KWH1	4.449	1.43E-01	6.36E-01		1.43E-01	0.636207
CO2 GDP	0.005277	5.10E+02	2.69E+00		4.80E+02	2.53296
CO2 GDP1	-0.0009683	4.16E+02	-4.03E-01		3.90E+02	-0.377637
USP	-5.521	1.80E-01	-9.94E-01		1.70E-01	-0.93857
Energy Cost	-0.2749	1.00E+01	-2.75E+00		8.00E+00	-2.1992
Biomass KWH1	2.388	3.21E-01	7.67E-01		3.21E-01	0.766548
Energy ConsP	2.05E-08	9.46E+07	1.94E+00		1.10E+08	2.25786
CO2	0.0813	3.90E+02	3.17E+01		4.15E+02	33.7395
Temp5	-1.013	6.50E-01	-6.58E-01		7.50E-01	-0.75975
Result			6.68E-01			0.9975432

These results indicate that carbon emissions in our atmosphere will increase to over 410 parts per million and global temperatures will increase dramatically from around 0.7 degrees to .85 and 1 degree respectively for the 5 year average and the annual reading. In other words, moving to an energy plan using more nuclear power will do very little to combat the current trends of increasing CO2 emissions and global temperatures. This would be expected since this analysis is just a very small percentage of the overall global energy consumption. The overall analysis of consuming more nuclear energy will be completed tomorrow.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

Obama’s Lowlights 11/24/11

SEIU – In Michigan, the union takes a portion of Medicare payments to families that support adults with disabilities – even if they do not belong to the union.

Obama – This is what Obama had to say about America when talking to CEOs in Honolulu: "But we've been a little bit lazy, I think, over the last couple of decades." "We've kind of taken for granted (that), well, people will want to come here, and we aren't out there hungry, selling America and trying to attract new business into America,"

Occupy Wall Street – According to the NY Post, the movement in New York City has cost businesses around the protests over a half million dollars. Riot police moved in to take the movement’s camps this past week in New York and Oakland. Oakland was arguably the most violent venue. Also, a New York state judge ruled against protestors and their right to camp in Zuccotti Park. Protestors are so outraged many are on tape threatening to firebomb New York City using Molotov cocktails.

Anjem Choudary – The Muslim cleric is on record saying that Christmas is the pathway to hell and Sharia law will take over America.

ObamaCare – The Supreme Court will likely begin hearing oral arguments as early as next February or March. Many want Justice Kagan to recuse herself from the case since released emails show her support of ObamaCare as Obama’s Solicitor General. In other news, states that refuse to create a healthcare exchange can block a lot of ObamaCare spending, forcing Congress' hand on the law. Obviously, this is something that the president wants to avoid. Obama’s solution is simple? Create an IRS rule that allows premium assistance for everyone, regardless of state vs. federal exchange participation.

EPA – On the agenda for the administration next year includes tracking emissions that cross state lines; setting greenhouse emissions for fossil fuel plants, petroleum refineries, and chemical plants; water discharge permits for cooling towers; new mileage standards for automotive companies; and new regulations for emissions from boilers and solid waste.

Farm Subsidies – A report by Senator Tom Coburn shows that 30 billion in farm subsidies are going to millionaires such as Ted Turner.

Fast and Furious – The Arizona Daily Star’s, Tim Stellar, is reporting the federal case file on Brian Terry’s death has gone missing.

Solyndra – The White House pressured the company to delay layoffs until after the 2010 midterm elections.

Super Committee – The debt committee basically passed on all the tough choices such as tax reform and entitlement reform.

Biden – The Vice President says “You fired the first shot!” when addressing unions in Ohio. If a conservative made this statement, the media would say they are being uncivil, partisan, and invoking violence.

National Debt – The national debt passed 15 trillion dollars this past week.

National Right to Carry Reciprocity Act – The House passed the right for every American to carry a concealed handgun this past week.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part VI)

Below is the result of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for global carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere (CO2).

n	26
R2	1.00
Adjusted R2	1.00
SE	0.619
Term	Coefficient	95% CI	SE	t statistic	DF	p
Intercept	391.7	-155.6	to 939.1	241.95	1.62	9	0.1399
Temp	3.437	-0.725	to 7.598	1.8397	1.87	9	0.0946
Temp5	6.772	-8.159	to 21.703	6.6002	1.03	9	0.3317
Energy Cost	1.29	-1.47	to 4.05	1.218	1.06	9	0.3173
Energy Cons	8.6712E-08	-6.1142E-07	to 7.8484E-07	3.0861E-007	0.28	9	0.7851
USP	-7.274	-132.694	to 118.145	55.4423	-0.13	9	0.8985
CO2 GDP	-0.05882	-0.12638	to 0.00873	0.029862	-1.97	9	0.0804
CO2 GDP1	-0.001466	-0.071025	to 0.068093	0.0307489	-0.05	9	0.9630
Wind KWH1	41.13	-59.46	to 141.73	44.469	0.92	9	0.3791
Solar KWH1	-41.16	-222.38	to 140.06	80.109	-0.51	9	0.6198
Geo KWH1	25.52	-61.49	to 112.52	38.461	0.66	9	0.5236
Hydro KWH1	5.829	-50.193	to 61.852	24.7651	0.24	9	0.8192
BIO KWH1	11.45	-76.58	to 99.47	38.913	0.29	9	0.7753
NP KWH1	29.63	-269.11	to 328.38	132.061	0.22	9	0.8275
Oil KWH1	-4.139	-55.000	to 46.721	22.4831	-0.18	9	0.8580
NG KWH1	0.4164	-34.1482	to 34.9810	15.27949	0.03	9	0.9789
Coal KWH1	-7.136	-110.263	to 95.991	45.5879	-0.16	9	0.8791

Source of variation	Sum squares	DF	Mean square	F statistic	p
Model	4525.943	16	282.871	737.33	<0.0001
Residual	3.453	9	0.384
Total	4529.395	25

Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	CO2 Levels		Ave	CO2 Levels
Intercept	391.7	1.00E+00	3.92E+02		1.00E+00	391.7
Coal KWH1	-7.136	1.48E+00	-1.06E+01		9.00E-01	-6.4224
NG KWH1	0.4164	4.71E+00	1.96E+00		3.10E+00	1.29084
Oil KWH1	-4.139	1.85E+00	-7.66E+00		1.15E+00	-4.75985
NP KWH1	29.63	2.30E-01	6.81E+00		2.30E-01	6.8149
Hydro KWH1	5.829	3.67E-01	2.14E+00		3.67E-01	2.139243
Geo KWH1	25.52	9.20E-02	2.35E+00		9.20E-02	2.34784
Solar KWh1	-41.16	4.17E-02	-1.72E+00		5.00E-01	-20.58
Wind KWH1	41.13	1.43E-01	5.88E+00		1.40E+00	57.582
CO2 GDP	-0.05882	5.10E+02	-3.00E+01		4.80E+02	-28.2336
CO2 GDP1	-0.001466	4.16E+02	-6.10E-01		3.90E+02	-0.57174
USP	-7.274	1.80E-01	-1.31E+00		1.50E-01	-1.0911
Energy Cost	1.29	1.00E+01	1.29E+01		1.00E+01	12.9
Biomass KWH1	11.45	3.21E-01	3.68E+00		3.21E-01	3.67545
Energy ConsP	8.67E-08	9.46E+07	8.20E+00		5.50E+07	4.76916
Temp	3.437	7.00E-01	2.41E+00		7.00E-01	2.4059
Temp1	6.772	6.50E-01	4.40E+00		6.50E-01	4.4018
Result			3.91E+02			428.368443

The model has excellent correlation as shown by the R² variable equal to 1. The results indicate that the 2009 value for CO2 levels in our atmosphere can increase from 390 parts per million to 428 parts per million by decreasing the United States reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil by 25% and increasing the United States reliance on Solar and Wind energy by 25% (highlighted in red). Nuclear power, hydro power, biomass, and geothermal variables were held constant. Other 2009 variables were adjusted to keep up with the trends of using renewable energies such as increased energy costs, higher global temperatures (Temp and Temp5 – even with lower CO2 emissions the global temperature trend is upward), lower energy consumption (including the USP variable), and lower CO2 to GDP numbers.

This result makes a lot of sense since an increased reliance of renewable energy sources in the United States will not affect global emissions very much since the United States only accounts for 16% of the total greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. Besides, even a massive increase in the global usage of renewable energy sources will never completely eliminate carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.

The best conclusion that can be drawn from this model is that while CO2 emissions increased by nearly 10% in our atmosphere; the model indicates that global temperatures would decline. This violates the hypothesis created by the global warming community that CO2 emissions are making the earth warmer. Keep in mind that models are only as good as the variables, correlation, and trends that currently exist. If, for instance, a trend changes, it can render any model useless. But the bottom line is it easy to build a model that contradicts the findings of climate change scientists.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part V)

Below is the result of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for energy costs.

R2	0.99
Adjusted R2	0.98
SE	0.160
Term	Coefficient	95% CI	SE	t statistic	DF	p
Intercept	-54.18	-209.34	to 100.98	68.589	-0.79	9	0.4499
Temp	-0.7734	-1.8957	to 0.3489	0.49610	-1.56	9	0.1534
Temp5	-2.971	-6.370	to 0.427	1.5024	-1.98	9	0.0794
CO2	0.08585	-0.09759	to 0.26929	0.081091	1.06	9	0.3173
Energy Cons	4.8707E-08	-1.2841E-07	to 2.2583E-07	7.8298E-008	0.62	9	0.5493
USP	-32.38	-53.66	to -11.10	9.405	-3.44	9	0.0074
CO2 GDP	0.003283	-0.017417	to 0.023984	0.0091507	0.36	9	0.7280
CO2 GDP1	-0.00312	-0.02091	to 0.01467	0.007865	-0.40	9	0.7008
Coal KWH1	7.484	-18.552	to 33.520	11.5094	0.65	9	0.5318
NG KWH1	2.443	-6.282	to 11.168	3.8569	0.63	9	0.5422
Oil KWH1	3.494	-9.384	to 16.373	5.6931	0.61	9	0.5545
NP KWH1	12.32	-64.40	to 89.05	33.916	0.36	9	0.7247
BIO KWH1	2.213	-20.543	to 24.970	10.0598	0.22	9	0.8308
Hydro KWH1	2.26	-12.14	to 16.66	6.364	0.36	9	0.7307
Geo KWH1	-6.728	-29.148	to 15.693	9.9112	-0.68	9	0.5143
Solar KWH1	13.88	-32.38	to 60.15	20.450	0.68	9	0.5142
Wind KWH1	4.848	-22.062	to 31.758	11.8956	0.41	9	0.6931

Source of variation	Sum squares	DF	Mean square	F statistic	p
Model	27.078	16	1.692	66.28	<0.0001
Residual	0.230	9	0.026
Total	27.308	25

Coefficients	Coefficient Value	Value	Energy Cost		Ave	Energy Cost
Intercept	-54.18	1.00E+00	-5.42E+01		1.00E+00	-54.18
Coal KWH1	7.484	1.48E+00	1.11E+01		9.00E-01	6.7356
NG KWH1	2.443	4.71E+00	1.15E+01		3.10E+00	7.5733
Oil KWH1	3.494	1.85E+00	6.46E+00		1.15E+00	4.0181
NP KWH1	12.32	2.30E-01	2.83E+00		2.30E-01	2.8336
Hydro KWH1	2.26	3.67E-01	8.29E-01		3.67E-01	0.82942
Geo KWH1	-6.728	9.20E-02	-6.19E-01		9.20E-02	-0.618976
Solar KWh1	13.88	4.17E-02	5.79E-01		5.00E-01	6.94
Wind KWH1	4.848	1.43E-01	6.93E-01		1.40E+00	6.7872
CO2 GDP	0.003283	5.10E+02	1.67E+00		4.80E+02	1.57584
CO2 GDP1	-0.00312	4.16E+02	-1.30E+00		3.90E+02	-1.2168
USP	-32.38	1.80E-01	-5.83E+00		1.60E-01	-5.1808
Temp	-0.7734	7.00E-01	-5.41E-01		7.00E-01	-0.54138
Biomass KWH1	2.213	3.21E-01	7.10E-01		3.21E-01	0.710373
Energy ConsP	4.87E-08	9.46E+07	4.61E+00		5.50E+07	2.678885
CO2	0.08585	3.90E+02	3.35E+01		4.30E+02	36.9155
Temp5	-2.971	6.50E-01	-1.93E+00		7.00E-01	-2.0797
Result			1.01E+01			13.780162

The model has excellent correlation as shown by the R² variable equal to 0.99. The results indicate that the 2009 value for energy costs can increase from 10 cents per kilowatt – hour to 13.8 cents per kilowatt - hour by decreasing the United States reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil by 25% and increasing the United States reliance on Solar and Wind energy by 25% (highlighted in red). Nuclear power, hydro power, biomass, and geothermal variables were held constant. Other 2009 variables were adjusted to keep up with the trends of using renewable energies such as increased energy costs, higher global temperatures (Temp and Temp5 – even with lower CO2 emissions the global temperature trend is upward), lower energy consumption (including the USP variable), and lower CO2 to GDP numbers.

This result makes sense (38% increase in energy costs) since renewable energy sources are much more expensive. And what’s worse this analysis does not include potential energy cost increases if cap and trade legislation passes.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)