Tuesday, September 27, 2011

The Relationship Between Healthcare Costs and Good Health (Part VI)

To summarize the results of the running a linear regression analysis on the model shown in Part I of this series of blogs are as follows:

Variable 2009 Result ObamaCare Projection
Healthcare Insurance Premium $13,375 $14900
Doctors Per Capita (per 1000 people) 2.4 2
Nurses Per Capita (per 1000 people) 9.7 8.1
Life Expectancy 78 76.2
Obesity 28% 32.7%
Healthcare % of GDP 16.2% 16.8%
Healthcare Costs Per Capita $7700 $9000

These results are the consequence of moving 30 million uninsured Americans into government run insurance plans such as Medicaid. The results indicate that there will be a 17% rationing of doctors; a 17% rationing of nurses; an 12% increase in insurance premiums; a 1.8 year reduction in the life expectancy rate; a 4.2% increase in the national obesity rate; a 0.6% or 80 billion dollar annual increase in the size of the healthcare industry compared to our gross domestic product (This may not sound like much, but the United States annual GDP grows about 3% per year or 400 billion dollars annually. Thus, the annual United States medical industry is growing by nearly 500 billion dollars!); and finally there will be a 17% increase in the annual healthcare expenditures per person.

The bottom line; any government attempt to take over a large portion of the healthcare industry will result in much higher expenses for every American while at the same time risking the wellbeing of every American. This is a lose – lose scenario. Some may argue the claims in this model are false, but it does accurately follow what happened when the state of Massachusetts implemented a similar law a few years back. It also tracks the trends of other socialized healthcare systems around the globe (i.e. Great Britain and Canada). Thus, the fears of many Americans that ObamaCare will lead to higher costs, shoddier care, and rationing are all well founded.

Since the ObamaCare law is so complex, it is very difficult to predict how these variables will actually trend. However, there is nothing wrong with looking at present healthcare trends to forecast the potential risks of creating a massive government run healthcare program. I seriously doubt anyone took the time to evaluate these important trends prior to developing and implementing the ObamaCare legislation.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

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