The Relationship Between Healthcare Costs and Good Health (Part II)

Below is the result of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for Health Ins Rate (the average annual health insurance rate for American families):


n 11

R2 1.00
Adjusted R2 1.00
SE 11.5

Term Coefficient 95% CI SE t statistic DF p
Intercept -9818 -121313 to 101678 8774.9 -1.12 1 0.4643
Priv Total 0.02536 -0.23553 to 0.28625 0.020532 1.24 1 0.4333
Gov Total 0.04183 -0.15634 to 0.24000 0.015596 2.68 1 0.2272
No Ins 0.04766 -0.18862 to 0.28393 0.018595 2.56 1 0.2368
Costs GDP -419.5 -1044.8 to 205.7 49.21 -8.53 1 0.0743
Exp Per Capita 2.019 0.853 to 3.185 0.0918 22.01 1 0.0289
Doctors Per Capita -1564 -9780 to 6652 646.6 -2.42 1 0.2496
Nurses Per Capita 761.2 -247.6 to 1769.9 79.39 9.59 1 0.0662
Life Expectancy -10.61 -2143.47 to 2122.25 167.860 -0.06 1 0.9598
Obesity 13.93 -618.89 to 646.75 49.804 0.28 1 0.8263


Source of variation Sum squares DF Mean square F statistic p
Model 67361655.0 9 7484628.3 56285.47 0.0033
Residual 133.0 1 133.0
Total 67361788.0 10

Coefficient Value 2009 Health Insurance Rate Projection Health Insurance Rate
Intercept -9818 1 -9818 1 -9818
Priv Total 0.02536 194545 4933.6612 194545 4933.6612
Gov Total 0.04183 93167 3897.17561 124000 5186.92
No Ins 0.04766 50674 2415.12284 20000 953.2
Costs GDP -419.5 16.2 -6795.9 17 -7131.5
Exp Per Capita 2.019 7700 15546.3 9000 18171
Obesity 13.93 28 390.04 33 459.69
Life Expectancy -10.61 78 -827.58 76 -806.36
Doctors Per Capita -1564 2.4 -3753.6 2 -3128
Nurses Per Capita 761.2 9.7 7383.64 8 6089.6

Result 13370.85965 14910.2112


The above model has excellent correlation as illustrated by the R² variable equal to 1. The results indicate the annual health insurance rate will go up by over 1500 dollars annually by moving 30 million people with no health insurance to a government run health insurance plan. It has already been determined that the Exp Per Capita (annual average healthcare expenditure per capita), Costs GDP (healthcare costs as a percent of GDP), and the Obesity rate will all go up in this model. On the other hand, it was determined that the Life Expectancy, the Doctors Per Capita, and Nurses Per Capita will all go down. Those numbers are updated in the projection column in the above table.

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