The Relationship Between Healthcare Costs and Good Health

Below are the results of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for No Ins (the number Americans without insurance), Gov Total (the number of Americans with government health insurance plans), and Priv Total (the number of Americans with private health insurance plans). The units for all three categories (No Ins, Priv Total, and Gov Total) are in thousands of people.


No Insurance

R2 1
SE 225.4

Coefficient Value 2009 No Insurance Projection No Insurance
Intercept 143447.00000 1 143447 1 143447
Priv Total -0.60350 194545 -117407.9075 194545 -117407.9075
Gov Total -0.86580 93167 -80663.9886 124000 -107359.2
Costs GDP 7867.00000 16.2 127445.4 17 133739
Expense Per Capita -37.06000 7700 -285362 9000 -333540
Doctors Per Capita 24614.00000 2.4 59073.6 2 49228
Health Ins Rate 18.21000 13375 243558.75 15000 273150
Obesity 63.97000 28 1791.16 33 2111.01
Nurses Per Capita -13362.00000 9.7 -129611.4 8 -106896
Life Expectancy 1134.00000 78 88452 76 86184

Result 50722.6139 22655.9025


Government Insured

R2 1
SE 258.3

Coefficient Value 2009 Government Insured Projection Government Insured
Intercept 159489.0000 1 159489 1 159489
Priv Total -0.6906 194545 -134352.777 194545 -134352.777
No Ins -1.1370 50674 -57616.338 20000 -22740
Costs GDP 9095.0000 16.2 147339 17 154615
Expense Per Capita -42.7800 7700 -329406 9000 -385020
Doctors Per Capita 28303.0000 2.4 67927.2 2 56606
Health Ins Rate 20.9900 13375 280741.25 15000 314850
Obesity 70.6200 28 1977.36 31 2189.22
Nurses Per Capita -15426.0000 9.7 -149632.2 8 -123408
Life Expectancy 1368.0000 78 106704 76 103968

Result 93170.495 126196.443





Private Insured

R2 1
SE 258.3

Coefficient Value 2009 Private Insured Projection Private Insured
Intercept 125153.0000 1 125153 1 125153
Gov Total -1.2930 93167 -120464.931 124000 -160332
No Ins -1.4890 50674 -75453.586 20000 -29780
Costs GDP 10651.0000 16.2 172546.2 17 181067
Expense Per Capita -48.9800 7700 -377146 9000 -440820
Doctors Per Capita 26540.0000 2.4 63696 2 53080
Health Ins Rate 23.8200 13375 318592.5 15000 357300
Obesity 547.4000 28 15327.2 33 18064.2
Nurses Per Capita -16762.0000 9.7 -162591.4 8 -134096
Life Expectancy 3008.0000 78 234624 76 228608

Result 194282.983 198244.2

The results from all three linear regression analyses above illustrate very good correlation because the R² variable is equal to 1. These results were computed to check the validity of the prior analyses done in Parts II, III, and IV of this series of blogs since the expected number of people with no insurance is to decline from 50 million to 20 million; the number of people with government insurance plans is expected to increase from 94 million to 124 million; and the number of people with private insurance plans is expected to stay the same at 194 million. For the most part these results correlate since No Ins dropped to 22 million, Gov Total increased to 126 million, and Priv Total increased to 198 million. These results are within 4% of what was expected and the difference can be easily explained by the upward population growth trend in the model. All of the results in Part I through Part V of this blog series on healthcare will be summarized in Part VI.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)