The Relationship Between Healthcare Costs and Good Health (Part IV)

Below are the results of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for Obesity (percentage of Americans with a body mass index over 30), Costs GDP (the annual health industry market size as a percentage of GDP), and Exp Per Capita (the average annual healthcare expenditure per person):


Obesity

R2 1
SE 0.22

Coefficient Value 2009 Obesity Percent Projection Obesity Percent
Intercept 174.000000000 1 174 1 174
Priv Total 0.000217900 194545 42.3913555 194545 42.3913555
Gov Total 0.000052627 93167 4.903099709 124000 6.525748
No Ins 0.000062590 50674 3.17168566 20000 1.2518
Costs GDP 1.504000000 16.2 24.3648 17 25.568
Exp Per Capita -0.009257000 7700 -71.2789 9000 -83.313
Health Ins Rate 0.005210000 13375 69.68375 15000 78.15
Life Expectancy -2.741000000 78 -213.798 76 -208.316
Doctors Per Capita 19.380000000 2.4 46.512 2 38.76
Nurses Per Capita -5.351000000 9.7 -51.9047 8 -42.808

Result 28.04509087 32.2099035


Cost Per GDP

R2 1
SE 0.03

Coefficient Value 2009 Costs Per GDP Projection Costs Per GDP
Intercept -21.490000 1 -21.49 1 -21.49
Priv Total 0.000064 194545 12.36605838 194545 12.36605838
Gov Total 0.000102 93167 9.4564505 124000 12.586
No Ins 0.000115 50674 5.8477796 20000 2.308
Expense Per Capita 0.004766 7700 36.6982 9000 42.894
Doctors Per Capita -3.524000 2.4 -8.4576 2 -7.048
Health Ins Rate -0.002351 13375 -31.444625 15000 -35.265
Obesity 0.022540 28 0.63112 33 0.74382
Nurses Per Capita 1.778000 9.7 17.2466 8 14.224
Life Expectancy -0.059710 78 -4.65738 76 -4.53796

Result 16.19660348 16.78091838


Expense Per Capita

R2 1
SE 0.007

Coefficient Value 2009 Expense Per Capita Projection Expense Per Capita
Intercept 4672.0000 1 4672 1 4672
Priv Total -0.0128 194545 -2484.33965 194545 -2484.33965
Gov Total -0.0209 93167 -1944.39529 124000 -2587.88
No Ins -0.0237 50674 -1203.00076 20000 -474.8
Costs GDP 208.1000 16.2 3371.22 17 3537.7
Doctors Per Capita 762.7000 2.4 1830.48 2 1525.4
Health Ins Rate 0.4942 13375 6609.925 15000 7413
Obesity -6.0600 28 -169.68 33 -199.98
Nurses Per Capita -375.0000 9.7 -3637.5 8 -3000
Life Expectancy 8.3980 78 655.044 76 638.248

Result 7699.7533 9039.34835


The above model results have excellent correlation as illustrated by the R² variable equal to 1. The Obesity rate will increase from 28% to 32.2%, the healthcare industry will grow from 16.2% to 16.8% of GDP, and the average annual healthcare expense per person will increase from 7700 to 9000 dollars by moving 30 million Americans with no healthcare insurance to a government run healthcare insurance plan. It has already been determined that Exp Per Capita (the average annual healthcare expenditures per capita), Costs GDP (the healthcare industry market size as a percent of GDP), Health Ins Rate (the annual family health insurance premium), and the Obesity rate will all increase using this model. On the other hand, it was determined that the Life Expectancy, the Doctors Per Capita, and Nurses Per Capita will all go down. Those numbers are updated in the projection column in the above table.

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