The Relationship Between Healthcare Costs and Good Health (Part III)

Below are the results of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for Doctors Per Capita (the average number of doctors per 1000 people), Nurses Per Capita (the average number of nurses per 1000 people), and Life Expectancy (the average life span for Americans):


Doctors Per Capita

R2 1
SE 0.007

Coefficient Value 2009 Doctors Per Capita Projection Doctors Per Capita
Intercept -6.69700000 1 -6.697 1 -6.697
Priv Total 0.00000987 194545 1.919633879 194545 1.919633879
Gov Total 0.00001970 93167 1.8353899 124000 2.4428
No Ins 0.00002249 50674 1.139708934 20000 0.44982
Costs GDP -0.21950000 16.2 -3.5559 17 -3.7315
Exp Per Capita 0.00108800 7700 8.3776 9000 9.792
Health Ins Rate -0.00054610 13375 -7.3040875 15000 -8.1915
Obesity 0.01810000 28 0.5068 33 0.5973
Nurses Per Capita 0.43080000 9.7 4.17876 8 3.4464
Life Expectancy 0.02561000 78 1.99758 76 1.94636

Result 2.398485213 1.974313879


Nurses Per Capita

R2 1
SE 0.02

Coefficient Value 2009 Nurses Per Capita Projection Nurses Per Capita
Intercept 13.630000 1 13.63 1 13.63
Priv Total -0.000030 194545 -5.928369785 194545 -5.928369785
Gov Total -0.000052 93167 -4.890708498 124000 -6.509256
No Ins -0.000060 50674 -3.0252378 20000 -1.194
Costs GDP 0.541500 16.2 8.7723 17 9.2055
Exp Per Capita -0.002616 7700 -20.1432 9000 -23.544
Health Ins Rate 0.001300 13375 17.3875 15000 19.5
Obesity -0.024430 28 -0.68404 33 -0.80619
Doctors Per Capita 2.107000 2.4 5.0568 2 4.214
Life Expectancy -0.005975 78 -0.46605 76 -0.4541

Result 9.708993917 8.113584215


Life Expectancy

R2 1
SE 0.07

Coefficient Value 2009 Life Expectancy Projection Life Expectancy
Intercept 45.6900000 1 45.69 1 45.69
Priv Total 0.0001132 194545 22.022494 194545 22.022494
Gov Total 0.0000964 93167 8.982789472 124000 11.955584
No Ins 0.0001049 50674 5.3157026 20000 2.098
Costs GDP -0.3766000 16.2 -6.10092 17 -6.4022
Exp Per Capita 0.0012130 7700 9.3401 9000 10.917
Health Ins Rate -0.0003751 13375 -5.0169625 15000 -5.6265
Obesity -0.2591000 28 -7.2548 33 -8.5503
Doctors Per Capita 2.5920000 2.4 6.2208 2 5.184
Nurses Per Capita -0.1237000 9.7 -1.19989 8 -0.9896

Result 77.99931357 76.298478


The above model results have excellent correlation as illustrated by the R² variable equal to 1. The doctors per capita will decrease from 2.4 to 2, the nurses per capita will decrease from 9.7 to 8.1, and the life expectancy will decrease from 78 to 76.2 years old by moving 30 million Americans with no healthcare insurance to government run healthcare insurance plans. It has already been determined that Exp Per Capita (the annual average healthcare expenditures per capita), Costs GDP (the healthcare industry size as a percent of GDP), Health Ins Rate (the annual family healthcare insurance premium rate), and the Obesity rate will increase in this model. On the other hand, it was determined that the Life Expectancy, the Doctors Per Capita, and Nurses Per Capita will all go down. Those numbers are updated in the projection column in the above table.


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