Thursday, September 6, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (9/7/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 54.3% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 237; Democrats 198;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 200

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.8133888

5.693721395

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8919084

0.891908353

Arizona

11

12

16

0.7236221

6.512598687

Arkansas

6

24

6

0.8824397

3.529758713

California

55

-16

42

0.214322

11.35906631

Colorado

9

-1.6

31

0.4684561

3.279192655

Connecticut

7

-9.3

37

0.3227338

1.61366923

Delaware

3

-20

45

0.1612355

0.16123552

DC

3

-75

51

0.0001035

0.000103539

Florida

0

29

-1

27

0.4802725

12.96735797

Georgia

16

8

19

0.6538579

9.154010326

Hawaii

4

-27

49

0.0908269

0.181653837

Idaho

4

34

2

0.9537124

1.907424879

Illinois

20

-21

46

0.1494344

2.689818845

Indiana

11

16

11

0.785678

7.071101948

Iowa

6

-0.2

25

0.496053

1.984211834

Kansas

6

17

9

0.7998215

3.199285984

Kentucky

8

8

19

0.6538579

3.923147282

Louisiana

8

16

11

0.785678

4.714067965

Massachusetts

11

-18.7

44

0.1774616

1.597154217

Maine

4

-14

40

0.2442882

0.488576368

Maryland

10

-23

47

0.1276017

1.020813318

Michigan

16

-1.2

28

0.4763313

6.668637743

Minnesota

10

-6

34

0.3833028

3.06642242

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.8133888

3.253555083

Missouri

10

6

22

0.6166972

4.93357758

Montana

3

17

9

0.7998215

0.799821496

Nebraska

5

14

13

0.7557118

2.267135448

Nevada

6

-3.3

32

0.4351609

1.740643519

New Hampshire

4

-3.5

33

0.4312692

0.862538457

New Jersey

14

-11.5

38

0.2847117

3.41654074

New Mexico

5

-14

40

0.2442882

0.732864552

New York

29

-26

48

0.0991848

2.677989591

North Carolina

15

0

2

24

0.5394068

7.012287828

North Dakota

3

14

13

0.7557118

0.755711816

Ohio

18

-1.4

29

0.4723923

7.558277302

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.9243022

4.621511063

Oregon

7

-6

34

0.3833028

1.916514013

Pennsylvania

20

-8

36

0.3461421

6.230558153

Rhode Island

4

-17

43

0.2001785

0.400357008

South Carolina

9

10

18

0.6895928

4.827149339

South Dakota

3

6

22

0.6166972

0.616697197

Tennessee

11

7

21

0.6354366

5.718929849

Texas

38

12

16

0.7236221

26.05039475

Utah

6

42

1

0.9811326

3.924530553

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0335968

0.033596829

Virginia

13

-0.6

26

0.4881604

5.369764631

Washington

12

-13

39

0.2600779

2.600779002

West Virginia

5

14

13

0.7557118

2.267135448

Wisconsin

10

-1.4

29

0.4723923

3.779138651

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9311074

0.931107353

0

Total

318

220

20.2144

0.5181488

0.457411601

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.7784848

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

5

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

10

0.2658313

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

2

4

0.5469714

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7.6

3

0.6730859

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9805495

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

12

0.0224161

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-0.7

9

0.4835265

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

11

0.107647

-1

0

16.9473

0.4882094

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

6.7

3

0.7168787

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-17.5

30

0.0670415

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

0.6

10

0.5204833

Gain

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

11

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6

23

0.3037427

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-12

27

0.152132

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

7

0.5341122

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.7

9

0.5238934

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

11

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-4.8

22

0.3405608

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-25

31

0.0161662

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

11

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-6.7

26

0.2831213

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

10

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2.5

5

0.5847372

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

1

0.8846494

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

5.3

4

0.6749915

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-38

32

0.0005705

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11.3

26

0.1666709

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-7.5

25

0.2604097

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

5

0.6656945

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-3.6

21

0.3789652

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-14.5

29

0.1072364

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

11

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

11

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

0

11

0.5

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

11

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

11

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.6

20

0.4795167

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

28

0.1238919

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

33

0.0004207

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

7.8

2

0.7478586

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

7

0.5341122

1

0

11.6807

0.4111472

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8795047

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9186202

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.90988

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-5

-1.7

86

0.4062142

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9186202

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

-10

-5

-10

-4.9

101

0.2469981

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

87

0.3376976

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

110

0.1412311

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

74

0.588363

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

104

0.2297105

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

7

5

5

5

10

5.7

50

0.7868778

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

109

0.1508185

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

46

0.8215429

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9606918

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

90

0.3076558

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.411637

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

33

0.885014

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

39

0.8556201

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2883061

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.201153

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

77

0.5444567

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7020907

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9227431

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

70

0.6206114

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

-2

-10

-5

-5

-5

102

0.242612

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

5

10

10

5.8

48

0.790913

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

0

-3

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

105

0.2172025

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

9

4

15

15

5

8.7

32

0.8877005

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8795047

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

38

0.873812

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

5

5

5

53

0.757388

Florida 18

Murphy

West

-1

1

0

5

5

2.1

72

0.615288

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

17

0.9143335

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2883061

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

10

5

5

5

5

53

0.757388

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.164261

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

99

0.260407

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

88

0.3275559

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

78

0.5333728

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6520415

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

5

-1.2

83

0.4334875

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

55

0.7304498

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

10

15

7.4

40

0.8491815

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

114

0.1320656

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

111

0.1381292

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6206114

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7020907

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.7

93

0.302765

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-12

-3

-10

-10

-15

-8.8

117

0.1096582

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

3

0.9376615

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

107

0.1784571

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0813798

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-7

0

-5

-5

-3.4

89

0.31754

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9186202

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

5

2.6

66

0.6416681

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

8

6

10

10

15

9

28

0.8954901

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

26

0.9004609

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

52

0.7660322

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1096582

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

42

0.8425545

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

28

0.8954901

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.90988

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

0

5

0.2

80

0.5111358

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

114

0.1320656

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.835739

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

55

0.7304498

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

8

0.9267053

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0694899

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.90988

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0623385

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8903418

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0813798

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-5.5

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.55

98

0.2626777

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.09012

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

13.5

5

5

10

10

7.35

41

0.8475424

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

3

2

0

0

5

1.7

73

0.5937858

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

17

-1

0

0

5

2.5

67

0.6364413

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

10

5

15

6.6

46

0.8215429

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-12

1

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2883061

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-6

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

97

0.2695502

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

102

0.242612

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

33

0.885014

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

0

5

2.4

68

0.631189

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

6

6

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.9341611

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

0

0

5

0.6

78

0.5333728

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.411637

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

119

0.1045099

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9186202

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

76

0.5555061

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

6

-2

-10

-10

-5

-4.8

100

0.2514263

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

3

0.9376615

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

5

-5

4.1

57

0.7164401

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

-1.5

12

5

5

5

5.25

51

0.7681663

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

33

0.885014

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

12

0.9186202

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

25

0.9028805

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7116939

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.828735

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

5

1.6

74

0.588363

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

48

0.790913

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0813798

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1045099

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.90988

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1381292

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

18

0.90988

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

42

0.8425545

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6520415

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

0

-5

-0.6

82

0.4666272

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9227431

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

24

0.9052567

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

26

0.9004609

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1381292

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9227431

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

15

15

15

11.1

2

0.9393564

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.09012

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

90

0.3076558

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

7

0.9305101

Texas 14

Lampson

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.90988

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

69

0.6206114

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.09012

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1045099

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-17

13

0

0

-5

-0.1

81

0.4944315

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7116939

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

124

0.0947433

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

90

0.3076558

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1045099

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1045099

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8903418

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0813798

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.9341611

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

116

0.114986

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0856665

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

63

0.6623024

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.68246

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