2012 Election Polls and Models (9/7/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 54.3% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 237; Democrats 198;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 200

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.8133888	5.693721395
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8919084	0.891908353
Arizona		11	12	16	0.7236221	6.512598687
Arkansas		6	24	6	0.8824397	3.529758713
California	55		-16	42	0.214322	11.35906631
Colorado	9		-1.6	31	0.4684561	3.279192655
Connecticut	7		-9.3	37	0.3227338	1.61366923
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1612355	0.16123552
DC	3		-75	51	0.0001035	0.000103539
Florida	0	29	-1	27	0.4802725	12.96735797
Georgia		16	8	19	0.6538579	9.154010326
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0908269	0.181653837
Idaho		4	34	2	0.9537124	1.907424879
Illinois	20		-21	46	0.1494344	2.689818845
Indiana		11	16	11	0.785678	7.071101948
Iowa	6		-0.2	25	0.496053	1.984211834
Kansas		6	17	9	0.7998215	3.199285984
Kentucky		8	8	19	0.6538579	3.923147282
Louisiana		8	16	11	0.785678	4.714067965
Massachusetts	11		-18.7	44	0.1774616	1.597154217
Maine	4		-14	40	0.2442882	0.488576368
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.1276017	1.020813318
Michigan	16		-1.2	28	0.4763313	6.668637743
Minnesota	10		-6	34	0.3833028	3.06642242
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8133888	3.253555083
Missouri		10	6	22	0.6166972	4.93357758
Montana		3	17	9	0.7998215	0.799821496
Nebraska		5	14	13	0.7557118	2.267135448
Nevada	6		-3.3	32	0.4351609	1.740643519
New Hampshire	4		-3.5	33	0.4312692	0.862538457
New Jersey	14		-11.5	38	0.2847117	3.41654074
New Mexico	5		-14	40	0.2442882	0.732864552
New York	29		-26	48	0.0991848	2.677989591
North Carolina	15	0	2	24	0.5394068	7.012287828
North Dakota		3	14	13	0.7557118	0.755711816
Ohio	18		-1.4	29	0.4723923	7.558277302
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.9243022	4.621511063
Oregon	7		-6	34	0.3833028	1.916514013
Pennsylvania	20		-8	36	0.3461421	6.230558153
Rhode Island	4		-17	43	0.2001785	0.400357008
South Carolina		9	10	18	0.6895928	4.827149339
South Dakota		3	6	22	0.6166972	0.616697197
Tennessee		11	7	21	0.6354366	5.718929849
Texas		38	12	16	0.7236221	26.05039475
Utah		6	42	1	0.9811326	3.924530553
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0335968	0.033596829
Virginia	13		-0.6	26	0.4881604	5.369764631
Washington	12		-13	39	0.2600779	2.600779002
West Virginia		5	14	13	0.7557118	2.267135448
Wisconsin	10		-1.4	29	0.4723923	3.779138651
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9311074	0.931107353
			0
Total	318	220	20.2144		0.5181488	0.457411601
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.7784848				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	10	0.2658313				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	2	4	0.5469714				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7.6	3	0.6730859	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9805495				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	12	0.0224161				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	9	0.4835265				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	11	0.107647				-1
			0
			16.9473		0.4882094
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	6.7	3	0.7168787			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	30	0.0670415			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	0.6	10	0.5204833	Gain		-1
Delaware	Carper		0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6	23	0.3037427			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	27	0.152132			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	7	0.5341122			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.7	9	0.5238934			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	11	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-4.8	22	0.3405608			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	31	0.0161662			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-6.7	26	0.2831213			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	10	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	5	0.5847372			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	1	0.8846494	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	5.3	4	0.6749915			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-38	32	0.0005705			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.3	26	0.1666709			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-7.5	25	0.2604097			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	5	0.6656945			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-3.6	21	0.3789652			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-14.5	29	0.1072364			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	11	0.5			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	11	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	0	11	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	11	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.6	20	0.4795167			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	28	0.1238919			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	33	0.0004207			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	7.8	2	0.7478586			-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	7	0.5341122			1
			0
			11.6807		0.4111472
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8795047
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9186202
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.90988
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	86	0.4062142
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9186202
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-5	3	-10	-5	-10	-4.9	101	0.2469981
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	87	0.3376976
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	110	0.1412311
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	74	0.588363
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	104	0.2297105
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	7	5	5	5	10	5.7	50	0.7868778
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	109	0.1508185
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8215429
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9606918
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	90	0.3076558
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.411637
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	33	0.885014
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	39	0.8556201
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2883061
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.201153
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5444567
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7020907
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9227431
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	70	0.6206114
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	-2	-10	-5	-5	-5	102	0.242612
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	48	0.790913
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	0	-3	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	105	0.2172025
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	9	4	15	15	5	8.7	32	0.8877005
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8795047
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	38	0.873812
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	5	5	5	53	0.757388
Florida 18	Murphy	West	-1	1	0	5	5	2.1	72	0.615288
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	17	0.9143335
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2883061
Georgia 12	Barrow	Allen	0	10	5	5	5	5	53	0.757388
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.164261
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	99	0.260407
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	88	0.3275559
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	5	0.6	78	0.5333728
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6520415
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	5	-1.2	83	0.4334875
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	55	0.7304498
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8491815
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	114	0.1320656
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	111	0.1381292
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6206114
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7020907
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	93	0.302765
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1096582
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9376615
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1784571
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0813798
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	0	-7	0	-5	-5	-3.4	89	0.31754
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9186202
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6416681
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	8	6	10	10	15	9	28	0.8954901
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	26	0.9004609
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	52	0.7660322
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1096582
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	42	0.8425545
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	28	0.8954901
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.90988
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	0	5	0.2	80	0.5111358
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	114	0.1320656
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.835739
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	55	0.7304498
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	8	0.9267053
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0694899
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.90988
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0623385
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8903418
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0813798
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-5.5	0	-5	-5	-10	-4.55	98	0.2626777
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.09012
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	13.5	5	5	10	10	7.35	41	0.8475424
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	3	2	0	0	5	1.7	73	0.5937858
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	17	-1	0	0	5	2.5	67	0.6364413
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8215429
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-12	1	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2883061
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-6	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.4	97	0.2695502
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	102	0.242612
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	33	0.885014
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	5	2.4	68	0.631189
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	6	6	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.9341611
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	0	0	5	0.6	78	0.5333728
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.411637
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1045099
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9186202
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	76	0.5555061
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.8	100	0.2514263
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	3	0.9376615
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	5	-5	4.1	57	0.7164401
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	-1.5	12	5	5	5	5.25	51	0.7681663
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	33	0.885014
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	12	0.9186202
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	25	0.9028805
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7116939
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.828735
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	5	1.6	74	0.588363
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.790913
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0813798
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1045099
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.90988
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1381292
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	18	0.90988
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	42	0.8425545
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6520415
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	82	0.4666272
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9227431
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	24	0.9052567
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	26	0.9004609
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1381292
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9227431
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	15	15	15	11.1	2	0.9393564
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.09012
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	90	0.3076558
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	7	0.9305101
Texas 14	Lampson	Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.90988
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6206114
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.09012
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1045099
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-5	-0.1	81	0.4944315
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7116939
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0947433
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	90	0.3076558
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1045099
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1045099
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8903418
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0813798
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.9341611
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.114986
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0856665
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6623024
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.68246