2012 Election Polls and Models (9/21/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 54.1% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 226; Democrats 212;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 206

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.8137751	5.696425712
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8922794	0.892279387
Arizona		11	12	17	0.7239432	6.515488834
Arkansas		6	24	6	0.8828179	3.531271667
California	55		-17.5	44	0.1929384	10.22573428
Colorado	9		-3	29	0.4409153	3.08640716
Connecticut	7		-9.3	37	0.3224668	1.612333987
Delaware	3		-20	46	0.1608444	0.160844441
DC	3		-75	51	0.0001011	0.000101111
Florida	29	0	-1.3	27	0.4743201	12.80664184
Georgia		16	8	20	0.654094	9.157316274
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0904742	0.180948315
Idaho		4	34	2	0.9539757	1.907951315
Illinois	20		-15	42	0.2286667	4.116000657
Indiana		11	16	10	0.7860512	7.074461213
Iowa	6		-0.2	25	0.4960466	1.984186295
Kansas		6	17	9	0.8002024	3.200809425
Kentucky		8	14	13	0.7560633	4.536379996
Louisiana		8	16	10	0.7860512	4.716307475
Massachusetts	11		-18.7	45	0.1770727	1.593653982
Maine	4		-14	41	0.2439367	0.487873335
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.1272177	1.017741545
Michigan	16		-6.3	34	0.3774584	5.284417238
Minnesota	10		-8.5	36	0.3368147	2.694517586
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8137751	3.255100407
Missouri		10	7.3	21	0.6412166	5.129732556
Montana		3	11	18	0.7071392	0.707139156
Nebraska		5	14	13	0.7560633	2.268189998
Nevada	6		-3.3	30	0.4350569	1.740227684
New Hampshire	4		-4	31	0.4214448	0.842889645
New Jersey	14		-12.3	40	0.2711095	3.253314122
New Mexico	5		-10	38	0.3101248	0.930374412
New York	29		-26.3	48	0.0962607	2.599039859
North Carolina	0	15	4.8	24	0.5939968	7.721958064
North Dakota		3	14	13	0.7560633	0.756063333
Ohio	18		-4.2	32	0.4175721	6.681153502
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.9246325	4.623162532
Oregon	7		-6	33	0.3831195	1.915597575
Pennsylvania	20		-8.4	35	0.3386256	6.095259934
Rhode Island	4		-17	43	0.1997976	0.399595287
South Carolina		9	10	19	0.6898752	4.829126373
South Dakota		3	6	23	0.6168805	0.616880485
Tennessee		11	7	22	0.6356471	5.720823948
Texas		38	15	12	0.7713333	27.76799869
Utah		6	42	1	0.981287	3.925147894
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0333762	0.033376199
Virginia	13	0	-0.3	26	0.49407	5.4347698
Washington	12		-12	39	0.2760568	2.760567962
West Virginia		5	14	13	0.7560633	2.268189998
Wisconsin	10		-1.4	28	0.4723477	3.778781938
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9314252	0.931425201
			0
Total	332	206	20.1818		0.518488	0.458542482
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.7672268				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.2759142				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	-5	8	0.3894814				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	2	4	0.5446947	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7.6	3	0.6651719	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9752753				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0281593				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	7	0.484328				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1192353				-1
			0
			17.8145		0.4772261		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	7	3	0.7248161			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-18.5	30	0.0572439			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	0.6	10	0.5204127	Gain	1	-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-8	23	0.2474536			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	27	0.1529679			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	6	0.5339948			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-2	20	0.4322569	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	11	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-8.4	25	0.2367947			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-21.5	31	0.0333058			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-5.3	23	0.3255723			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	10	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1	5	0.5339948	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	1	0.8838428	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	5.3	4	0.6744277			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-40	33	0.0003217			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-10.7	26	0.1806537			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-8	23	0.2474536			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	5	0.6651566	Gain	1	-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-7.3	22	0.2667067			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-14.5	29	0.1080294			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	0	11	0.5			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	11	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	0	11	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	11	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	0.8	9	0.5272077	Gain	1	-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	28	0.1247097			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0004384			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	7.8	2	0.7471224	Gain	1	-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	6	0.5339948			1
			0
			11.7212		0.4017842		5
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8776103
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9169234
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	19	0.9081228
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-10	-2.7	86	0.3542538
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9169234
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-5	3	-10	-5	-10	-4.9	100	0.248731
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	87	0.3389241
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	110	0.1431674
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	75	0.4779151
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	104	0.2315123
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	7	5	5	5	10	5.7	50	0.7850206
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	109	0.1527627
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8196107
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9594801
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	96	0.2620792
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	82	0.4123332
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	33	0.8831372
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	39	0.8536804
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	91	0.2898345
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.2030426
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	-5	-1.2	80	0.4340153
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7006166
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9210786
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	-5	0.2	74	0.5110467
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-10	-5	-5	-4.1	92	0.2851143
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	48	0.7890441
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	0	-3	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	105	0.2190471
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	9	4	15	15	5	8.7	32	0.8858334
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8776103
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	38	0.8719024
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	5	5	5	53	0.7556366
Florida 18	Murphy	West	-1	1	0	5	5	2.1	68	0.6143905
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	17	0.9126058
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	101	0.2443634
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	0	10	5	5	5	5	53	0.7556366
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1662054
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	96	0.2620792
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	88	0.3288487
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	81	0.4231451
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6508838
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	13	-6	0	-5	-5	-1.9	85	0.3962416
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	55	0.7288223
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8472373
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	114	0.1339878
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	111	0.1400615
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	67	0.6196751
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7006166
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	90	0.3042107
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1115151
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9361379
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1803893
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0830766
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	-7	-7	0	-5	-5	-4.1	92	0.2851143
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9169234
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	-5	0.6	70	0.5331061
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	8	6	10	10	15	9	28	0.8936552
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	26	0.89865
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	52	0.7642463
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1115151
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	42	0.8406087
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	28	0.8936552
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	2	8	10	15	15	9.8	17	0.9126058
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	0	-5	-1.8	84	0.4015873
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	114	0.1339878
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	4.5	7	10	5	10	6.85	44	0.8285624
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	55	0.7288223
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	8	0.9250744
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.071086
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	19	0.9081228
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0638621
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8884849
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0830766
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-8.7	0	-5	-5	-10	-4.87	99	0.2500493
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	124	0.0918772
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	13.5	5	5	10	10	7.35	41	0.8455975
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	3	2	0	0	5	1.7	69	0.5930485
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	17	-1	0	0	5	2.5	66	0.6353916
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8196107
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	103	0.2400375
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-3	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.1	92	0.2851143
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	101	0.2443634
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	33	0.8831372
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	2	7	0	0	-5	0.6	70	0.5331061
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	6	6	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.9326007
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	0	0	5	0.6	70	0.5331061
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	82	0.4123332
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-12	-5	-15	-10	-15	-10.2	132	0.0789214
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9169234
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	-5	-1	78	0.4449356
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	13	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.1	92	0.2851143
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	3	0.9361379
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	5	-5	4.1	57	0.7148857
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	-1.5	12	5	5	5	5.25	51	0.7663723
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	33	0.8831372
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	12	0.9169234
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	25	0.9010824
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7101655
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8267951
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	75	0.4779151
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.7890441
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0830766
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1063448
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	19	0.9081228
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1400615
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	19	0.9081228
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	42	0.8406087
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6508838
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	77	0.4668939
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9210786
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	24	0.9034718
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	26	0.89865
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1400615
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9210786
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	15	15	15	11.1	2	0.9378514
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	124	0.0918772
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	89	0.3090724
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	7	0.928914
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	19	0.9081228
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	0	6	0	0	-5	0.2	73	0.5110467
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	124	0.0918772
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1063448
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-10	-1.1	79	0.4394697
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7101655
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	123	0.0965282
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	96	0.2620792
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1063448
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1063448
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8884849
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0830766
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.9326007
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.1168628
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	127	0.0873942
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6610759
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6811039