Thursday, September 20, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (9/21/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 54.1% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 226; Democrats 212;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 206

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.8137751

5.696425712

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8922794

0.892279387

Arizona

11

12

17

0.7239432

6.515488834

Arkansas

6

24

6

0.8828179

3.531271667

California

55

-17.5

44

0.1929384

10.22573428

Colorado

9

-3

29

0.4409153

3.08640716

Connecticut

7

-9.3

37

0.3224668

1.612333987

Delaware

3

-20

46

0.1608444

0.160844441

DC

3

-75

51

0.0001011

0.000101111

Florida

29

0

-1.3

27

0.4743201

12.80664184

Georgia

16

8

20

0.654094

9.157316274

Hawaii

4

-27

49

0.0904742

0.180948315

Idaho

4

34

2

0.9539757

1.907951315

Illinois

20

-15

42

0.2286667

4.116000657

Indiana

11

16

10

0.7860512

7.074461213

Iowa

6

-0.2

25

0.4960466

1.984186295

Kansas

6

17

9

0.8002024

3.200809425

Kentucky

8

14

13

0.7560633

4.536379996

Louisiana

8

16

10

0.7860512

4.716307475

Massachusetts

11

-18.7

45

0.1770727

1.593653982

Maine

4

-14

41

0.2439367

0.487873335

Maryland

10

-23

47

0.1272177

1.017741545

Michigan

16

-6.3

34

0.3774584

5.284417238

Minnesota

10

-8.5

36

0.3368147

2.694517586

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.8137751

3.255100407

Missouri

10

7.3

21

0.6412166

5.129732556

Montana

3

11

18

0.7071392

0.707139156

Nebraska

5

14

13

0.7560633

2.268189998

Nevada

6

-3.3

30

0.4350569

1.740227684

New Hampshire

4

-4

31

0.4214448

0.842889645

New Jersey

14

-12.3

40

0.2711095

3.253314122

New Mexico

5

-10

38

0.3101248

0.930374412

New York

29

-26.3

48

0.0962607

2.599039859

North Carolina

0

15

4.8

24

0.5939968

7.721958064

North Dakota

3

14

13

0.7560633

0.756063333

Ohio

18

-4.2

32

0.4175721

6.681153502

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.9246325

4.623162532

Oregon

7

-6

33

0.3831195

1.915597575

Pennsylvania

20

-8.4

35

0.3386256

6.095259934

Rhode Island

4

-17

43

0.1997976

0.399595287

South Carolina

9

10

19

0.6898752

4.829126373

South Dakota

3

6

23

0.6168805

0.616880485

Tennessee

11

7

22

0.6356471

5.720823948

Texas

38

15

12

0.7713333

27.76799869

Utah

6

42

1

0.981287

3.925147894

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0333762

0.033376199

Virginia

13

0

-0.3

26

0.49407

5.4347698

Washington

12

-12

39

0.2760568

2.760567962

West Virginia

5

14

13

0.7560633

2.268189998

Wisconsin

10

-1.4

28

0.4723477

3.778781938

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9314252

0.931425201

0

Total

332

206

20.1818

0.518488

0.458542482

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.7672268

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

9

0.2759142

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

-5

8

0.3894814

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

2

4

0.5446947

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7.6

3

0.6651719

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9752753

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0281593

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-0.7

7

0.484328

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1192353

-1

0

17.8145

0.4772261

2

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

7

3

0.7248161

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-18.5

30

0.0572439

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

0.6

10

0.5204127

Gain

1

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

0

11

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-8

23

0.2474536

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-12

27

0.1529679

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

6

0.5339948

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-2

20

0.4322569

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

11

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-8.4

25

0.2367947

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-21.5

31

0.0333058

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

11

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-5.3

23

0.3255723

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

10

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1

5

0.5339948

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

1

0.8838428

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

5.3

4

0.6744277

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-40

33

0.0003217

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-10.7

26

0.1806537

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-8

23

0.2474536

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

5

0.6651566

Gain

1

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-7.3

22

0.2667067

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-14.5

29

0.1080294

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

0

11

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

11

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

0

11

0.5

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

11

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

0

11

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

0.8

9

0.5272077

Gain

1

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

28

0.1247097

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

32

0.0004384

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

7.8

2

0.7471224

Gain

1

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

6

0.5339948

1

0

11.7212

0.4017842

5

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8776103

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9169234

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

19

0.9081228

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-10

-2.7

86

0.3542538

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9169234

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

-10

-5

-10

-4.9

100

0.248731

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

87

0.3389241

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

110

0.1431674

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

75

0.4779151

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

104

0.2315123

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

7

5

5

5

10

5.7

50

0.7850206

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

109

0.1527627

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

46

0.8196107

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9594801

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-10

-4.6

96

0.2620792

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

82

0.4123332

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

33

0.8831372

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

39

0.8536804

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

91

0.2898345

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.2030426

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

80

0.4340153

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7006166

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9210786

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

74

0.5110467

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

2.5

-10

-5

-5

-4.1

92

0.2851143

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

5

10

10

5.8

48

0.7890441

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

0

-3

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

105

0.2190471

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

9

4

15

15

5

8.7

32

0.8858334

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8776103

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

38

0.8719024

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

5

5

5

53

0.7556366

Florida 18

Murphy

West

-1

1

0

5

5

2.1

68

0.6143905

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

17

0.9126058

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

101

0.2443634

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

0

10

5

5

5

5

53

0.7556366

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1662054

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

96

0.2620792

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

88

0.3288487

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

81

0.4231451

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6508838

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

13

-6

0

-5

-5

-1.9

85

0.3962416

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

55

0.7288223

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

10

15

7.4

40

0.8472373

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

114

0.1339878

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

111

0.1400615

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

67

0.6196751

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7006166

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.7

90

0.3042107

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-12

-3

-10

-10

-15

-8.8

117

0.1115151

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

3

0.9361379

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

107

0.1803893

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0830766

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

-7

-7

0

-5

-5

-4.1

92

0.2851143

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9169234

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

-5

0.6

70

0.5331061

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

8

6

10

10

15

9

28

0.8936552

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

26

0.89865

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

52

0.7642463

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1115151

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

42

0.8406087

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

28

0.8936552

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

2

8

10

15

15

9.8

17

0.9126058

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

0

-5

-1.8

84

0.4015873

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

114

0.1339878

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

4.5

7

10

5

10

6.85

44

0.8285624

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

55

0.7288223

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

8

0.9250744

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.071086

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

19

0.9081228

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0638621

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8884849

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0830766

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-8.7

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.87

99

0.2500493

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

124

0.0918772

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

13.5

5

5

10

10

7.35

41

0.8455975

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

3

2

0

0

5

1.7

69

0.5930485

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

17

-1

0

0

5

2.5

66

0.6353916

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

10

5

15

6.6

46

0.8196107

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-13

1

-5

-5

-10

-5.1

103

0.2400375

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-3

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.1

92

0.2851143

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

101

0.2443634

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

33

0.8831372

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

2

7

0

0

-5

0.6

70

0.5331061

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

6

6

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.9326007

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

0

0

5

0.6

70

0.5331061

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

82

0.4123332

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-12

-5

-15

-10

-15

-10.2

132

0.0789214

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9169234

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

78

0.4449356

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

13

-2

-10

-10

-5

-4.1

92

0.2851143

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

3

0.9361379

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

5

-5

4.1

57

0.7148857

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

-1.5

12

5

5

5

5.25

51

0.7663723

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

33

0.8831372

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

12

0.9169234

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

25

0.9010824

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7101655

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8267951

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

-5

-0.4

75

0.4779151

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

48

0.7890441

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0830766

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1063448

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

19

0.9081228

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1400615

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

19

0.9081228

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

42

0.8406087

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6508838

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

0

-5

-0.6

77

0.4668939

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9210786

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

24

0.9034718

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

26

0.89865

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1400615

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9210786

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

15

15

15

11.1

2

0.9378514

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

124

0.0918772

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

89

0.3090724

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

7

0.928914

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

19

0.9081228

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

0

6

0

0

-5

0.2

73

0.5110467

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

124

0.0918772

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1063448

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-17

13

0

0

-10

-1.1

79

0.4394697

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7101655

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

123

0.0965282

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

0

-3

-5

-5

-10

-4.6

96

0.2620792

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1063448

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1063448

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8884849

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0830766

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.9326007

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

116

0.1168628

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

127

0.0873942

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

63

0.6610759

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.6811039

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