Thursday, September 13, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (9/14/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 54.5% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 200

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.8140511

5.698357465

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8925442

0.892544153

Arizona

11

12

16

0.7241727

6.517554593

Arkansas

6

24

6

0.8830879

3.532351478

California

55

-16

42

0.2136821

11.32514975

Colorado

9

-3.4

31

0.4330307

3.031214863

Connecticut

7

-9.3

38

0.3222759

1.611379424

Delaware

3

-20

45

0.1605652

0.160565157

DC

3

-75

51

9.941E-05

9.94078E-05

Florida

29

-1.7

28

0.4663963

12.59270144

Georgia

16

8

19

0.6542628

9.159679873

Hawaii

4

-27

49

0.0902225

0.180445039

Idaho

4

34

2

0.9541631

1.908326297

Illinois

20

-21

46

0.148765

2.677770609

Indiana

11

16

11

0.7863179

7.076861363

Iowa

6

-0.2

25

0.496042

1.984168031

Kansas

6

17

9

0.8004744

3.201897782

Kentucky

8

8

19

0.6542628

3.925577089

Louisiana

8

16

11

0.7863179

4.717907575

Massachusetts

11

-18.7

44

0.1767949

1.591153907

Maine

4

-14

41

0.2436855

0.487370924

Maryland

10

-23

47

0.1269436

1.015548839

Michigan

16

-4

33

0.4213553

5.898973904

Minnesota

10

-6

34

0.3829885

3.063907684

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.8140511

3.256204266

Missouri

10

6

22

0.6170115

4.936092316

Montana

3

17

9

0.8004744

0.800474445

Nebraska

5

14

13

0.7563145

2.268943614

Nevada

6

-3.3

30

0.4349826

1.739930328

New Hampshire

4

-3.5

32

0.4310804

0.86216088

New Jersey

14

-10.5

39

0.3012279

3.614734229

New Mexico

5

-8.8

37

0.3312223

0.993666793

New York

29

-26

48

0.0985637

2.661219313

North Carolina

15

1.8

24

0.5355752

6.962478036

North Dakota

3

14

13

0.7563145

0.756314538

Ohio

18

-2.2

29

0.4565476

7.304762321

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.924868

4.624340141

Oregon

7

-6

34

0.3829885

1.914942302

Pennsylvania

20

-8

36

0.3457372

6.223268734

Rhode Island

4

-17

43

0.1995256

0.399051109

South Carolina

9

10

18

0.6900771

4.830539688

South Dakota

3

6

22

0.6170115

0.61701154

Tennessee

11

7

21

0.6357976

5.722178209

Texas

38

12

16

0.7241727

26.07021837

Utah

6

42

1

0.9813967

3.925586719

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0332192

0.033219157

Virginia

13

-0.6

26

0.4881276

5.369403398

Washington

12

-13

40

0.2594994

2.594993774

West Virginia

5

14

13

0.7563145

2.268943614

Wisconsin

10

-1.4

27

0.4723159

3.778526852

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9316518

0.931651803

0

Total

332

206

20.1585

0.5178151

0.45451118

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.7784848

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

5

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

10

0.2658313

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

2

4

0.5469714

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7.6

3

0.6730859

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9805495

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

12

0.0224161

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-0.7

9

0.4835265

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

11

0.107647

-1

0

16.9473

0.4882094

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

6.7

3

0.7168669

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-17.5

30

0.0670534

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

0.6

10

0.5204821

Gain

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

11

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-7.6

25

0.257651

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-12

27

0.1521467

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

7

0.5341101

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.7

9

0.5238919

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

11

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-4.2

22

0.3595939

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-25

31

0.0161715

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

11

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-6.7

25

0.2831331

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

10

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2.5

5

0.5847321

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

1

0.8846352

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

5.3

4

0.6749815

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-38

32

0.0005709

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-10.7

26

0.1798381

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-7.4

24

0.2632091

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

5

0.665685

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-3

21

0.3986598

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-14.5

29

0.1072504

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

11

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

11

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

0

11

0.5

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

11

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

11

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.6

20

0.4795179

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

28

0.1239063

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

33

0.000421

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

7.8

2

0.7478455

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

7

0.5341101

1

0

11.6814

0.411408

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8792342

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9183784

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.9096294

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-5

-1.7

86

0.4063199

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9183784

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

-10

-5

-10

-4.9

102

0.2472463

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

87

0.3378734

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

110

0.1415078

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

74

0.5882632

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

104

0.2299685

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

7

5

5

5

10

5.7

50

0.7866119

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

109

0.1510964

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

46

0.8212666

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9605198

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

90

0.3078588

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4117368

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

33

0.8847461

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

39

0.8553429

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2885251

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.2014234

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

77

0.5444058

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7018794

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9225059

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

70

0.6204772

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-6

2.5

-10

-5

-5

-4.1

97

0.2837826

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

5

10

10

5.8

48

0.7906455

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

0

-3

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

105

0.2174665

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

9

4

15

15

5

8.7

32

0.887434

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

36

0.8792342

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

38

0.8735392

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

5

5

5

53

0.7571372

Florida 18

Murphy

West

-1

1

0

5

5

2.1

72

0.6151593

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

17

0.9140872

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2885251

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

10

5

5

5

5

53

0.7571372

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1645391

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

100

0.2606466

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

88

0.3277413

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

78

0.5333345

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6518755

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

5

-1.2

83

0.4335632

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

55

0.7302167

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

10

15

7.4

40

0.8489036

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

114

0.1323401

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

111

0.1384053

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6204772

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7018794

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.7

93

0.3029722

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-12

-3

-10

-10

-15

-8.8

117

0.1099232

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

3

0.9374447

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

107

0.1787334

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0816216

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-7

0

-5

-5

-3.4

89

0.3177343

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9183784

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

5

2.6

66

0.6415123

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

8

6

10

10

15

9

28

0.8952283

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

26

0.9002026

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

52

0.7657765

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1099232

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

42

0.8422763

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

28

0.8952283

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.9096294

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

0

5

0.2

80

0.511123

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

114

0.1323401

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.8354609

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

55

0.7302167

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

8

0.926473

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0697171

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.9096294

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0625553

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8900768

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0816216

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-5.5

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.55

99

0.2629157

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

124

0.0903706

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

13.5

5

5

10

10

7.35

41

0.8472644

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

3

2

0

0

5

1.7

73

0.5936801

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

17

-1

0

0

5

2.5

67

0.6362908

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

10

5

15

6.6

46

0.8212666

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-12

1

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2885251

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-6

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

98

0.2697833

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

103

0.2428628

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

33

0.8847461

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

0

5

2.4

68

0.6310438

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

6

6

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.933939

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

0

0

5

0.6

78

0.5333345

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4117368

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-12

-5

-15

-10

-15

-10.2

132

0.0774941

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.9183784

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

76

0.5554427

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

6

-2

-10

-10

-5

-4.8

101

0.2516717

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

3

0.9374447

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

5

-5

4.1

57

0.7162174

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

-1.5

12

5

5

5

5.25

51

0.7679094

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

33

0.8847461

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

12

0.9183784

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

25

0.902624

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7114749

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8284576

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

5

1.6

74

0.5882632

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

48

0.7906455

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0816216

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1047717

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.9096294

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1384053

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

18

0.9096294

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

42

0.8422763

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6518755

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

0

-5

-0.6

82

0.4666655

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9225059

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

24

0.9050021

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

26

0.9002026

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1384053

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9225059

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

15

15

15

11.1

2

0.9391423

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

124

0.0903706

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

90

0.3078588

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

7

0.9302829

Texas 14

Lampson

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.9096294

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

69

0.6204772

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

124

0.0903706

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1047717

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-17

13

0

0

-5

-0.1

81

0.4944379

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7114749

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

123

0.0949979

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

90

0.3078588

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1047717

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1047717

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

30

0.8900768

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

128

0.0816216

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.933939

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

116

0.1152539

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

127

0.0859128

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

63

0.6621266

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.6822657

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