2012 Election Polls and Models (9/14/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206 (R +34), Obama at 54.5% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 200

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.8140511	5.698357465
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8925442	0.892544153
Arizona		11	12	16	0.7241727	6.517554593
Arkansas		6	24	6	0.8830879	3.532351478
California	55		-16	42	0.2136821	11.32514975
Colorado	9		-3.4	31	0.4330307	3.031214863
Connecticut	7		-9.3	38	0.3222759	1.611379424
Delaware	3		-20	45	0.1605652	0.160565157
DC	3		-75	51	9.941E-05	9.94078E-05
Florida	29		-1.7	28	0.4663963	12.59270144
Georgia		16	8	19	0.6542628	9.159679873
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0902225	0.180445039
Idaho		4	34	2	0.9541631	1.908326297
Illinois	20		-21	46	0.148765	2.677770609
Indiana		11	16	11	0.7863179	7.076861363
Iowa	6		-0.2	25	0.496042	1.984168031
Kansas		6	17	9	0.8004744	3.201897782
Kentucky		8	8	19	0.6542628	3.925577089
Louisiana		8	16	11	0.7863179	4.717907575
Massachusetts	11		-18.7	44	0.1767949	1.591153907
Maine	4		-14	41	0.2436855	0.487370924
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.1269436	1.015548839
Michigan	16		-4	33	0.4213553	5.898973904
Minnesota	10		-6	34	0.3829885	3.063907684
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8140511	3.256204266
Missouri		10	6	22	0.6170115	4.936092316
Montana		3	17	9	0.8004744	0.800474445
Nebraska		5	14	13	0.7563145	2.268943614
Nevada	6		-3.3	30	0.4349826	1.739930328
New Hampshire	4		-3.5	32	0.4310804	0.86216088
New Jersey	14		-10.5	39	0.3012279	3.614734229
New Mexico	5		-8.8	37	0.3312223	0.993666793
New York	29		-26	48	0.0985637	2.661219313
North Carolina		15	1.8	24	0.5355752	6.962478036
North Dakota		3	14	13	0.7563145	0.756314538
Ohio	18		-2.2	29	0.4565476	7.304762321
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.924868	4.624340141
Oregon	7		-6	34	0.3829885	1.914942302
Pennsylvania	20		-8	36	0.3457372	6.223268734
Rhode Island	4		-17	43	0.1995256	0.399051109
South Carolina		9	10	18	0.6900771	4.830539688
South Dakota		3	6	22	0.6170115	0.61701154
Tennessee		11	7	21	0.6357976	5.722178209
Texas		38	12	16	0.7241727	26.07021837
Utah		6	42	1	0.9813967	3.925586719
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0332192	0.033219157
Virginia	13		-0.6	26	0.4881276	5.369403398
Washington	12		-13	40	0.2594994	2.594993774
West Virginia		5	14	13	0.7563145	2.268943614
Wisconsin	10		-1.4	27	0.4723159	3.778526852
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9316518	0.931651803
			0
Total	332	206	20.1585		0.5178151	0.45451118
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.7784848				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	10	0.2658313				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	2	4	0.5469714				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7.6	3	0.6730859	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9805495				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	12	0.0224161				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	9	0.4835265				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	11	0.107647				-1
			0
			16.9473		0.4882094
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	6.7	3	0.7168669			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	30	0.0670534			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	0.6	10	0.5204821	Gain		-1
Delaware	Carper		0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-7.6	25	0.257651			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	27	0.1521467			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	7	0.5341101			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.7	9	0.5238919			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	11	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-4.2	22	0.3595939			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-25	31	0.0161715			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-6.7	25	0.2831331			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	10	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	5	0.5847321			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	1	0.8846352	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	5.3	4	0.6749815			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-38	32	0.0005709			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-10.7	26	0.1798381			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-7.4	24	0.2632091			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	5	0.665685			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-3	21	0.3986598			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-14.5	29	0.1072504			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	11	0.5			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	11	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	0	11	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	11	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.6	20	0.4795179			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	28	0.1239063			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	33	0.000421			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	7.8	2	0.7478455			-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	7	0.5341101			1
			0
			11.6814		0.411408
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8792342
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9183784
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.9096294
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-5	-1.7	86	0.4063199
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9183784
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-5	3	-10	-5	-10	-4.9	102	0.2472463
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	87	0.3378734
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	110	0.1415078
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	74	0.5882632
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	104	0.2299685
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	7	5	5	5	10	5.7	50	0.7866119
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	109	0.1510964
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	46	0.8212666
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9605198
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	90	0.3078588
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4117368
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	33	0.8847461
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	39	0.8553429
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2885251
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.2014234
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5444058
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7018794
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9225059
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	70	0.6204772
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-10	-5	-5	-4.1	97	0.2837826
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	48	0.7906455
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	0	-3	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	105	0.2174665
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	9	4	15	15	5	8.7	32	0.887434
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	36	0.8792342
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	38	0.8735392
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	5	5	5	53	0.7571372
Florida 18	Murphy	West	-1	1	0	5	5	2.1	72	0.6151593
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	17	0.9140872
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2885251
Georgia 12	Barrow	Allen	0	10	5	5	5	5	53	0.7571372
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1645391
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	100	0.2606466
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	88	0.3277413
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	5	0.6	78	0.5333345
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6518755
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	5	-1.2	83	0.4335632
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	55	0.7302167
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	10	15	7.4	40	0.8489036
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	114	0.1323401
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	111	0.1384053
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6204772
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7018794
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	93	0.3029722
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1099232
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9374447
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	107	0.1787334
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0816216
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	0	-7	0	-5	-5	-3.4	89	0.3177343
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9183784
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6415123
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	8	6	10	10	15	9	28	0.8952283
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	26	0.9002026
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	5	5	15	5.2	52	0.7657765
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1099232
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	42	0.8422763
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	28	0.8952283
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.9096294
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	0	5	0.2	80	0.511123
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	114	0.1323401
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8354609
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	55	0.7302167
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	8	0.926473
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0697171
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.9096294
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0625553
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8900768
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0816216
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-5.5	0	-5	-5	-10	-4.55	99	0.2629157
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	124	0.0903706
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	13.5	5	5	10	10	7.35	41	0.8472644
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	3	2	0	0	5	1.7	73	0.5936801
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	17	-1	0	0	5	2.5	67	0.6362908
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	46	0.8212666
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-12	1	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2885251
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-6	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.4	98	0.2697833
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	103	0.2428628
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	33	0.8847461
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	5	2.4	68	0.6310438
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	6	6	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.933939
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	0	0	5	0.6	78	0.5333345
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4117368
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-12	-5	-15	-10	-15	-10.2	132	0.0774941
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9183784
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	76	0.5554427
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.8	101	0.2516717
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	3	0.9374447
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	5	-5	4.1	57	0.7162174
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	-1.5	12	5	5	5	5.25	51	0.7679094
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	33	0.8847461
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	12	0.9183784
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	25	0.902624
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7114749
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8284576
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	5	1.6	74	0.5882632
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.7906455
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0816216
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1047717
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.9096294
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1384053
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	18	0.9096294
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	42	0.8422763
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6518755
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	82	0.4666655
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9225059
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	24	0.9050021
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	26	0.9002026
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	111	0.1384053
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.9225059
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	15	15	15	11.1	2	0.9391423
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	124	0.0903706
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	90	0.3078588
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	7	0.9302829
Texas 14	Lampson	Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.9096294
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6204772
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	124	0.0903706
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1047717
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-5	-0.1	81	0.4944379
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7114749
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	123	0.0949979
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	90	0.3078588
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1047717
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1047717
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8900768
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	128	0.0816216
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.933939
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	116	0.1152539
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	127	0.0859128
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6621266
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	62	0.6822657