2012 Election Polls and Models (9/28/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 347; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 55.7% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 227; Democrats 211;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 332; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 206

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	18	7	0.8106669	5.674668328
Alaska		3	25	5	0.8892818	0.889281777
Arizona		11	8.4	20	0.6594025	5.9346227
Arkansas		6	24	6	0.8797642	3.519056699
California	55		-20	44	0.1639942	8.691690117
Colorado	9		-2.1	25	0.4590973	3.213680804
Connecticut	7		-12.3	39	0.2737279	1.368639408
Delaware	3		-20	44	0.1639942	0.163994153
DC	3		-75	51	0.0001222	0.000122155
Florida	29	0	-2.2	26	0.4571568	12.34323475
Georgia		16	13.3	16	0.7423107	10.39235009
Hawaii	4		-27	49	0.0933283	0.186656522
Idaho		4	34	2	0.9518333	1.903666682
Illinois	20		-15	41	0.231587	4.168565976
Indiana		11	16	10	0.7830511	7.047459952
Iowa	6		-4	29	0.422448	1.689792061
Kansas		6	17	9	0.7971397	3.188558638
Kentucky		8	14	14	0.7532402	4.519441442
Louisiana		8	16	10	0.7830511	4.698306634
Massachusetts	11		-22.8	46	0.1323999	1.191598818
Maine	4		-15.2	42	0.2286161	0.457232167
Maryland	10		-23	47	0.1303157	1.042525608
Michigan	16		-8.6	35	0.3370182	4.718254737
Minnesota	10		-8.4	33	0.3405975	2.724779822
Mississippi		6	18	7	0.8106669	3.242667616
Missouri		10	7.3	21	0.6394666	5.11573305
Montana		3	10.3	18	0.6927848	0.692784831
Nebraska		5	12.5	17	0.7295189	2.188556801
Nevada	6		-3.4	28	0.4339645	1.735858149
New Hampshire	4		-2.3	27	0.4552174	0.910434896
New Jersey	14		-12.3	39	0.2737279	3.284734579
New Mexico	5		-10	37	0.3123901	0.937170192
New York	29		-26.3	48	0.0991694	2.677574181
North Carolina	15	0	-1	24	0.480496	6.246448378
North Dakota		3	15	12	0.768413	0.768413001
Ohio	18		-4.1	30	0.4205347	6.728555957
Oklahoma		7	29	4	0.921956	4.609780093
Oregon	7		-8.5	34	0.338806	1.694030086
Pennsylvania	20		-9.5	36	0.3210973	5.779751124
Rhode Island	4		-17	43	0.2028603	0.405720681
South Carolina		9	10	19	0.6876099	4.813269551
South Dakota		3	6	23	0.6154117	0.615411727
Tennessee		11	7	22	0.6339603	5.705643027
Texas		38	15	12	0.768413	27.66286805
Utah		6	42	1	0.9800202	3.920080601
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0351772	0.03517723
Virginia	13	0	-4.5	31	0.4129009	4.54190955
Washington	12		-12	38	0.278634	2.786339707
West Virginia		5	14	14	0.7532402	2.259720721
Wisconsin	10		-7.8	32	0.3514206	2.811365188
Wyoming		3	30	3	0.9288475	0.928847452
			0
Total	347	191	20.4463		0.5064873	0.443280521
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.7677279				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.6	9	0.2754674				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	-3	8	0.4329844				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	1.5	4	0.533627	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7.6	3	0.6655211	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9755299				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0278835				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-0.7	7	0.4842928				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1187085				-1
			0
			17.7745		0.4801584		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	7	2	0.7280676			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-18.5	30	0.0543395			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-0.5	17	0.482709			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	0	8	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-8.3	24	0.2358537			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-12	27	0.1490456			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	6	0.5345495			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-2.6	18	0.4108148	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	8	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-9.5	25	0.2050387			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-21.5	31	0.0311403			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	8	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-5.3	23	0.3229125			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	7	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	1.7	4	0.5585955	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	1	0.9297716	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	2.6	4	0.5891852			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-40	33	0.0002617			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11.7	26	0.1551668			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-8	23	0.2439382			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	3	0.6676947	Gain	1	-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-7.2	22	0.2662083			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-13.2	28	0.1261897			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	0	8	0.5			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	0	8	0.5			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	0	8	0.5			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	0	8	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	0	8	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-4.4	19	0.3514051			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-13.5	29	0.1208793			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	32	0.0003601			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-5	20	0.3323053			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	6	0.5345495			1
			0
			11.5325		0.3797267		2
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	22	0.9013471
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9148996
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	6	0.9270064
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	-3	3	0	-5	-10	-2.7	86	0.3555717
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9148996
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-5	3	-10	-10	-10	-5.9	104	0.2091944
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.5	90	0.3155975
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-10	-10	-7.7	109	0.1454612
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	77	0.4781241
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-10	-5.3	102	0.2336356
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	7	5	5	5	10	5.7	50	0.7828306
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	114	0.1246381
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	44	0.8173279
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9580206
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	96	0.2640474
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	80	0.41315
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	33	0.8809085
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	0	3	5	5	15	5.6	51	0.7787781
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	91	0.2916319
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1685047
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	-5	-5	-2.2	84	0.381424
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	58	0.6988836
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.919092
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	0	5	1.5	72	0.5815006
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-6	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3.1	87	0.3353515
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	42	0.8245022
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	0	-3	0	-10	-10	-4.6	96	0.2640474
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	9	4	0	15	-5	3.7	60	0.6940898
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	37	0.8753619
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	38	0.8696373
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	0	5	10	10	5	6	48	0.7947276
Florida 18	Murphy	West	-1	1	0	5	5	2.1	69	0.6133371
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	17	0.9105464
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	100	0.2464261
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	0	10	5	5	5	5	54	0.7535739
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1685047
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	96	0.2640474
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	88	0.3303674
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-7	-2	0	0	-5	-2.1	83	0.3866629
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	65	0.6495243
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	13	-6	0	-5	5	0.1	74	0.5054716
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	5	5	5.4	52	0.7705447
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	15	6.4	45	0.8099732
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	112	0.1362667
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0894536
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	62	0.6696326
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	58	0.6988836
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-9.5	9	-5	-5	-15	-4.15	94	0.2846113
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-10	-15	-10.2	131	0.0819412
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	3	0.9343142
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-2	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.6	106	0.1826721
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	127	0.0851004
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	-7	-7	0	-5	-5	-4.1	92	0.2869425
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9148996
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	-5	0.6	72	0.5327934
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	8	6	10	10	15	9	28	0.8914736
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.8964958
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	47	0.8024393
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.1137215
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8383067
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	28	0.8914736
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	2	8	10	10	15	8.8	30	0.8862785
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	0	-5	-1.8	82	0.4025003
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	112	0.1362667
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	5.7	7	10	5	10	6.97	41	0.830458
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	55	0.7269073
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	8	0.9231266
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	132	0.0729936
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.9060298
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	133	0.0656858
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8862785
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	127	0.0851004
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-8.7	0	-5	-5	-10	-4.87	99	0.252083
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0939702
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	13.5	5	5	5	10	6.35	46	0.8081065
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	11.5	2	0	0	5	2.55	67	0.6367359
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	16.5	-1	0	0	5	2.45	68	0.6315766
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	10	15	8.6	33	0.8809085
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-13	1	-5	-5	-10	-5.1	101	0.2421214
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-3	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.1	92	0.2869425
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-10	-10	-6	105	0.2052724
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	33	0.8809085
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	2	7	0	0	-5	0.6	72	0.5327934
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	9.5	6	15	15	15	11.15	2	0.9369035
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	70	0.58685
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	-5	0	-5	-2.6	85	0.3606937
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-12	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	134	0.0622513
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	12	0.9148996
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	5	-5	0	75	0.5
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	8.5	-2	-10	-10	-5	-4.55	95	0.2662943
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	3	0.9343142
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	19	11	0	0	-5	3.1	63	0.6646485
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	-1.5	12	5	5	5	5.25	53	0.7642586
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	33	0.8809085
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	12	0.9148996
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.8989426
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	56	0.7083681
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	42	0.8245022
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	0	-5	-0.4	77	0.4781241
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	0	14	5	5	5	5.8	49	0.7868398
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	127	0.0851004
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1085264
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	18	0.9060298
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.1423511
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	18	0.9060298
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	38	0.8696373
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	65	0.6495243
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	-5	-5	-1.6	80	0.41315
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.919092
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9013471
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	9	0.919092
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.1423511
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.8964958
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	1	10	10	10	15	9.1	27	0.8940062
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0939702
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	-11	-13	0	-5	-5	-5.7	103	0.2171694
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	6	0.9270064
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	18	0.9060298
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	-5	6	0	0	-5	-0.3	76	0.4835894
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0939702
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1085264
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-17	13	0	0	-10	-1.1	79	0.4400386
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	5	4	56	0.7083681
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	121	0.0986529
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.2	88	0.3303674
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1085264
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1085264
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	30	0.8862785
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	127	0.0851004
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	5	0.9307345
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	115	0.1190915
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0894536
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	64	0.6596352
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	61	0.6795103