Friday, July 6, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (7/6/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 229; Democrats 206;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

15

3

0.8909649

6.236754386

Alaska

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

6.8

11

0.7117006

6.405305592

Arkansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

California

55

-16.8

47

0.0838739

4.445314843

Colorado

9

-3

35

0.4027114

2.818979726

Connecticut

7

-12

43

0.1622284

0.811141842

DC

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Florida

0

29

-1.7

30

0.444492

12.00128391

Georgia

16

10

6

0.7942103

11.11894367

Hawaii

4

0

15

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

15

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

15

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

7

0.7700482

6.930433652

Iowa

6

-2.5

33

0.418677

1.674707805

Kansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

15

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

15

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-19.2

48

0.0574501

0.517050996

Maine

4

-15.8

46

0.0972528

0.194505532

Maryland

10

0

15

0.5

4

Michigan

16

-1.8

31

0.4412499

6.177498143

Minnesota

10

-11.6

42

0.1704227

1.363381913

Mississippi

6

0

15

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

13

0.5972886

4.778308884

Montana

3

7

8

0.7172807

0.717280659

Nebraska

5

13

4

0.8571162

2.571348637

Nevada

6

-5.3

37

0.3317115

1.326845918

New Hampshire

4

-5.7

38

0.3198791

0.639758243

New Jersey

14

-15

45

0.1090351

1.308421052

New Mexico

5

-12.3

44

0.1562538

0.468761448

New York

29

-25.2

49

0.0192629

0.520099211

North Carolina

15

0

1.8

14

0.5587501

7.263751724

North Dakota

3

13

4

0.8571162

0.857116212

Ohio

18

-2.6

34

0.4154722

6.647555251

Oklahoma

7

35

2

0.9979729

4.989864402

Oregon

7

-6

39

0.3111228

1.555613809

Pennsylvania

20

-8

40

0.2556246

4.601242765

Rhode Island

4

0

15

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

15

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

7

8

0.7172807

6.455525928

Texas

38

7

8

0.7172807

25.82210371

Utah

6

40

1

0.9994891

3.997956506

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.0054566

0.005456638

Virginia

13

-2.4

32

0.4218871

4.640758165

Washington

12

-11.5

41

0.1725121

1.725120509

West Virginia

5

0

15

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-3

35

0.4027114

3.221691116

Wyoming

3

6

12

0.6888772

0.688877238

0

Total

315

220

12.1785

0.4714933

0.413790253

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.9908099

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

5

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-11

12

0.0230149

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

0.3

4

0.5216967

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7

2

0.8978902

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

5

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

5

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

2.7

3

0.6878308

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

0

5

0.5

-1

0

5.51345

0.5517702

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

7.4

4

0.7704904

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

24

0.370622

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6

26

0.2741281

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.0226827

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

21

1

0.9821933

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.2

9

0.5079833

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

10

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-12

29

0.114924

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

6

7.5

0.7258719

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

-1.5

22

0.4403453

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

2

0.9193743

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

4.7

6

0.6809275

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-34

33

0.0003343

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11

28

0.1355163

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-4.5

25

0.3262538

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

3

7

0.617983

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-10.5

27

0.1467082

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-15.2

30

0.0641361

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.1

22

0.4960081

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-16

31

0.0546884

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

9.3

3

0.823965

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5398527

1

0

9.99375

0.4549997

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8834907

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9221648

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

10

8.6

29

0.8889598

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4212214

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9221648

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

-10

-5

-5

-3.4

93

0.3146449

Arizona 9

Barber

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3350774

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

0

-1

-10

-10

-10

-6.2

108

0.1893575

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

80

0.4773557

California 9

McNerney

Gill

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

93

0.3146449

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7149533

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1467118

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

47

0.8256356

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9631869

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3046326

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

77

0.5226443

California 31

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

29

0.8889598

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

39

0.8597143

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3046326

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

107

0.1971429

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

76

0.5452157

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7052353

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9262167

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6226137

Connecticut 5

Murphy

McMahon

-3

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.7

105

0.2091778

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8328412

Florida 9

Grayson

Buchanan

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

86

0.3560102

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

15

15

5

7.8

38

0.8659464

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8834907

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

36

0.8778333

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

0

5

10

5

10

6

49

0.8028571

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6226137

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

16

0.9179463

Florida 22

Hasner

0

-5

0

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3350774

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

5

5

53

0.7611146

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

110

0.1601481

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

101

0.2568456

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.3247953

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4212214

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6545153

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

91

0.3247953

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

55

0.7339178

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8834907

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

116

0.1280143

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

113

0.1340536

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6226137

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7052353

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-10

-5

-15

-4.2

100

0.2754842

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

112

0.1402857

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9408281

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2216348

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0778352

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2216348

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9221648

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

62

0.6953674

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

36

0.8778333

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

24

0.9042581

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

10

5

15

6.2

48

0.8106425

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

118

0.1057575

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8466675

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

26

0.8993411

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9135577

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4101475

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

116

0.1280143

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.8398519

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

55

0.7339178

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9301054

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0661657

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9135577

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0591719

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

27

0.8942425

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0778352

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3350774

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0864423

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

15

5

5

10

10

7.5

40

0.8565255

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

74

0.5787786

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

81

0.4323579

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

51

0.7867164

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

87

0.3454847

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

99

0.2947647

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

102

0.2388854

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

29

0.8889598

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

5

5

3.4

63

0.6853551

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9262167

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

73

0.5898525

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4101475

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

119

0.1006589

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9221648

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

75

0.5564515

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

109

0.1817642

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

21

0.908996

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

0

11

0

5

5

4.2

57

0.7245158

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

5

5.4

52

0.7783652

North Carolina 11

Rogers

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

29

0.8889598

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

11

0.9221648

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

23

0.9066492

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

58

0.7149533

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8328412

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

72

0.6008552

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

50

0.7948811

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0778352

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1006589

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9135577

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

113

0.1340536

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8466675

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8466675

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

66

0.6545153

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

0

6

0

0

-5

0.2

78

0.5113267

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9262167

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

21

0.908996

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

24

0.9042581

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

113

0.1340536

South Carolina 7

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9262167

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9408281

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0864423

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

95

0.3046326

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9338343

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9135577

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

68

0.6226137

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0864423

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1006589

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-15

13

0

0

-5

0.1

79

0.5056639

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

10

5

5

53

0.7611146

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

124

0.091004

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3046326

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1006589

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1006589

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

27

0.8942425

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0778352

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9374073

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

106

0.2051189

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0820537

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

65

0.6649226

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

63

0.6853551

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