2012 Election Polls and Models (7/6/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 229; Democrats 206;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	15	3	0.8909649	6.236754386
Alaska		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	6.8	11	0.7117006	6.405305592
Arkansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
California	55		-16.8	47	0.0838739	4.445314843
Colorado	9		-3	35	0.4027114	2.818979726
Connecticut	7		-12	43	0.1622284	0.811141842
DC	3		0	15	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	-1.7	30	0.444492	12.00128391
Georgia		16	10	6	0.7942103	11.11894367
Hawaii	4		0	15	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	15	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	15	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	7	0.7700482	6.930433652
Iowa	6		-2.5	33	0.418677	1.674707805
Kansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	15	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	15	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-19.2	48	0.0574501	0.517050996
Maine	4		-15.8	46	0.0972528	0.194505532
Maryland	10		0	15	0.5	4
Michigan	16		-1.8	31	0.4412499	6.177498143
Minnesota	10		-11.6	42	0.1704227	1.363381913
Mississippi		6	0	15	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	13	0.5972886	4.778308884
Montana		3	7	8	0.7172807	0.717280659
Nebraska		5	13	4	0.8571162	2.571348637
Nevada	6		-5.3	37	0.3317115	1.326845918
New Hampshire	4		-5.7	38	0.3198791	0.639758243
New Jersey	14		-15	45	0.1090351	1.308421052
New Mexico	5		-12.3	44	0.1562538	0.468761448
New York	29		-25.2	49	0.0192629	0.520099211
North Carolina	15	0	1.8	14	0.5587501	7.263751724
North Dakota		3	13	4	0.8571162	0.857116212
Ohio	18		-2.6	34	0.4154722	6.647555251
Oklahoma		7	35	2	0.9979729	4.989864402
Oregon	7		-6	39	0.3111228	1.555613809
Pennsylvania	20		-8	40	0.2556246	4.601242765
Rhode Island	4		0	15	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	15	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	8	0.7172807	6.455525928
Texas		38	7	8	0.7172807	25.82210371
Utah		6	40	1	0.9994891	3.997956506
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0054566	0.005456638
Virginia	13		-2.4	32	0.4218871	4.640758165
Washington	12		-11.5	41	0.1725121	1.725120509
West Virginia		5	0	15	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-3	35	0.4027114	3.221691116
Wyoming		3	6	12	0.6888772	0.688877238
			0
Total	315	220	12.1785		0.4714933	0.413790253
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9908099				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11	12	0.0230149				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	4	0.5216967				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7	2	0.8978902	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	5	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	5	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	2.7	3	0.6878308	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	5	0.5				-1
			0
			5.51345		0.5517702
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	7.4	4	0.7704904			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	24	0.370622			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6	26	0.2741281			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0226827			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9821933			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.2	9	0.5079833			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	10	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-12	29	0.114924			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	6	7.5	0.7258719	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	22	0.4403453			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9193743	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.7	6	0.6809275			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-34	33	0.0003343			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11	28	0.1355163			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	25	0.3262538			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	3	7	0.617983			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-10.5	27	0.1467082			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-15.2	30	0.0641361			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.1	22	0.4960081			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-16	31	0.0546884			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	9.3	3	0.823965	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5398527			1
			0
			9.99375		0.4549997
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8834907
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9221648
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	10	8.6	29	0.8889598
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4212214
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9221648
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	-10	-5	-5	-3.4	93	0.3146449
Arizona 9	Barber		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3350774
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	0	-1	-10	-10	-10	-6.2	108	0.1893575
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	80	0.4773557
California 9	McNerney	Gill	0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	93	0.3146449
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7149533
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1467118
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	47	0.8256356
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9631869
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3046326
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	77	0.5226443
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	29	0.8889598
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	39	0.8597143
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3046326
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	107	0.1971429
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	76	0.5452157
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7052353
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9262167
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6226137
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.7	105	0.2091778
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8328412
Florida 9	Grayson	Buchanan	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3560102
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	38	0.8659464
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8834907
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	36	0.8778333
Florida 16	Fitzgerald		0	5	10	5	10	6	49	0.8028571
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6226137
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9179463
Florida 22		Hasner	0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3350774
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	53	0.7611146
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	110	0.1601481
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	101	0.2568456
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.3247953
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4212214
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6545153
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.3247953
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	55	0.7339178
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8834907
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	116	0.1280143
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	113	0.1340536
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6226137
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7052353
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-10	-5	-15	-4.2	100	0.2754842
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	112	0.1402857
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9408281
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2216348
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0778352
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2216348
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9221648
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6953674
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	36	0.8778333
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	24	0.9042581
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	48	0.8106425
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	118	0.1057575
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8466675
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	26	0.8993411
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9135577
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4101475
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	116	0.1280143
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8398519
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	55	0.7339178
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9301054
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0661657
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9135577
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0591719
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	27	0.8942425
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0778352
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3350774
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0864423
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	40	0.8565255
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	74	0.5787786
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	0	-1	0	0	-5	-1.2	81	0.4323579
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	51	0.7867164
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	87	0.3454847
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	99	0.2947647
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	102	0.2388854
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	29	0.8889598
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	5	5	3.4	63	0.6853551
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9262167
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	73	0.5898525
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4101475
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1006589
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9221648
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	75	0.5564515
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	109	0.1817642
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	21	0.908996
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	0	11	0	5	5	4.2	57	0.7245158
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	5	5.4	52	0.7783652
North Carolina 11	Rogers		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	29	0.8889598
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9221648
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	23	0.9066492
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7149533
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8328412
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	72	0.6008552
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	50	0.7948811
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0778352
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1006589
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9135577
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	113	0.1340536
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8466675
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8466675
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6545153
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	0	6	0	0	-5	0.2	78	0.5113267
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9262167
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	21	0.908996
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	24	0.9042581
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	113	0.1340536
South Carolina 7			0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9262167
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9408281
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0864423
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	95	0.3046326
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9338343
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9135577
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6226137
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0864423
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1006589
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-15	13	0	0	-5	0.1	79	0.5056639
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	10	5	5	53	0.7611146
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.091004
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3046326
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1006589
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1006589
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	27	0.8942425
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0778352
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9374073
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	106	0.2051189
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0820537
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	65	0.6649226
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	63	0.6853551