2012 Election Polls and Model (7/20/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 231; Democrats 204;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	15	3	0.8902725	6.231907335
Alaska		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	6.8	11	0.7111282	6.400153621
Arkansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
California	55		-17.2	47	0.0795534	4.216330034
Colorado	9		-2.9	34	0.4061697	2.843187811
Connecticut	7		-12	44	0.1629557	0.814778263
DC	3		0	15	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	-0.4	30	0.4869385	13.1473404
Georgia		16	10	6	0.7935076	11.10910635
Hawaii	4		0	15	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	15	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	15	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	7	0.7693741	6.924366733
Iowa	6		-1.3	31	0.4576227	1.830490632
Kansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	15	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	15	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-19.2	48	0.057997	0.521973238
Maine	4		-15.4	46	0.103704	0.207408098
Maryland	10		0	15	0.5	4
Michigan	16		-1.8	32	0.441425	6.179949402
Minnesota	10		-11.6	43	0.1711484	1.369187556
Mississippi		6	0	15	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	13	0.5970024	4.776019114
Montana		3	7	8	0.7166968	0.716696822
Nebraska		5	13	5	0.8563918	2.569175458
Nevada	6		-5.3	37	0.3321857	1.328742847
New Hampshire	4		-5.3	37	0.3321857	0.664371423
New Jersey	14		-15.3	45	0.1051869	1.262243239
New Mexico	5		-10.7	41	0.1905264	0.571579316
New York	29		-26	49	0.016648	0.449495714
North Carolina	15	0	1.2	14	0.5391285	7.008669929
North Dakota		3	14	4	0.8741259	0.874125851
Ohio	18		-3.8	35	0.3778669	6.04587051
Oklahoma		7	35	2	0.9979168	4.989584086
Oregon	7		-6	39	0.3116455	1.558227718
Pennsylvania	20		-7.8	40	0.2615582	4.708048431
Rhode Island	4		0	15	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	15	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	8	0.7166968	6.450271399
Texas		38	7	8	0.7166968	25.8010856
Utah		6	40	1	0.999471	3.997883836
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0055772	0.005577232
Virginia	13		-2.2	33	0.4285357	4.713892188
Washington	12		-11.5	42	0.1732371	1.732371077
West Virginia		5	0	15	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-4.4	36	0.3593462	2.874769301
Wyoming		3	6	12	0.6883545	0.688354456
			0
Total	315	220	12.2152		0.4725756	0.413984448
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	6	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	2	0.8772245				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	6	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11	12	0.1629086				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	6	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	5	0.5106894				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	5	3	0.6724269	Gain			-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	35	1	0.9991151				1
Utah		Herbert	0	6	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	6	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	2.7	4	0.5952911	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	6	0.5				-1
			0
			11.1951		0.568138
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	7.4	3	0.7666608			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	32	0.0425918			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	24	0.3727414			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-2.8	23	0.391497			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-13	29	0.1004956			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.980569			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.2	9	0.5078478			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	10	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-12	27	0.1189268			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	6	7.5	0.7224665	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	21	0.4413505			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9157588	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.7	7	0.6780709			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35.5	33	0.0002398			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-12.3	28	0.1131629			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-5.5	25	0.294253			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5	6	0.6885768			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-10.5	26	0.1508435			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-15.2	30	0.0674398			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.3	21	0.4882292			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-16	31	0.057764			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	6.6	4	0.7418963	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5391784			1
			0
			10.1663		0.4448655
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8824969
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212843
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126432
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	83	0.4215511
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212843
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	-10	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3153721
Arizona 9	Barber		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3357359
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	0	-1	-10	-10	-10	-6.2	108	0.1903701
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	72	0.5894779
California 9	McNerney	Gill	0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	92	0.3153721
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.714135
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1477378
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	47	0.8246117
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9625717
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053919
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.5225484
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	30	0.8879764
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	39	0.8586918
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053919
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	107	0.1981471
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5450248
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	61	0.7044457
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253543
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6221103
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.7	104	0.2101661
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	5	10	10	5.8	52	0.793887
Florida 9	Grayson	Buchanan	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3565938
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	38	0.864929
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8824969
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	36	0.8768302
Florida 16	Fitzgerald		0	5	10	5	10	6	51	0.8018529
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6221103
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9170484
Florida 22		Hasner	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	100	0.285865
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	54	0.76018
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	110	0.1611764
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	101	0.2577392
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3254889
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	83	0.4215511
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6538935
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	90	0.3254889
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	56	0.7330474
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8824969
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	115	0.1290253
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	112	0.135071
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6221103
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	61	0.7044457
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-5	-5	-15	-3.7	98	0.300455
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-12	-3	-10	-10	-15	-8.8	117	0.1067292
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9400436
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	109	0.1827834
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787157
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2226028
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212843
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	0	5	5	2.6	66	0.6434062
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	36	0.8768302
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	25	0.903313
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	50	0.8096299
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	117	0.1067292
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8456396
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	27	0.8983822
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126432
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.5225484
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	115	0.1290253
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8388236
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	10	5.4	53	0.7773972
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9292616
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0669901
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126432
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0599564
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8932708
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787157
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3357359
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0873568
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	40	0.8555011
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	75	0.5784489
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5450248
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	15	6.6	47	0.8246117
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	87	0.3461065
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	99	0.2955543
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	102	0.23982
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	30	0.8879764
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	0	5	2.4	67	0.6328093
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253543
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	72	0.5894779
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	85	0.4105221
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1016178
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9212843
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	76	0.5562137
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	6	-2	-10	-10	-10	-5.8	105	0.206113
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9080657
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	0	11	0	5	5	4.2	58	0.7236706
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	49	0.8172166
North Carolina 11	Rogers		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	30	0.8879764
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9212843
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	24	0.9057114
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	59	0.714135
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8318142
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-3	4	0	0	5	1.5	74	0.5839716
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	10	6.8	45	0.8318142
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787157
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016178
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126432
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	112	0.135071
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8456396
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8456396
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	64	0.6538935
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-8	6	0	0	-5	-0.6	82	0.4661999
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253543
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	22	0.9080657
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	25	0.903313
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	112	0.135071
South Carolina 7			0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9253543
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9400436
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0873568
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053919
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9330099
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9126432
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6221103
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0873568
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016178
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-15	13	0	0	-5	0.1	81	0.5056399
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	5	10	5	54	0.76018
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0919343
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3053919
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016178
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1016178
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	28	0.8932708
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.0787157
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9366026
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.206113
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0829516
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	63	0.6642641
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	10	4.4	56	0.7330474