2012 Election Polls and Models (7/13/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 231; Democrats 204;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	15	3	0.8907734	6.235413952
Alaska		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	6.8	11	0.7115421	6.403878969
Arkansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
California	55		-17.2	47	0.0791006	4.192331473
Colorado	9		-3	34	0.4027907	2.819534676
Connecticut	7		-12	43	0.1624296	0.812148077
DC	3		0	15	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	-0.8	30	0.4738343	12.79352632
Georgia		16	10	6	0.7940158	11.11622071
Hawaii	4		0	15	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	15	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	15	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	7	0.7698616	6.9287541
Iowa	6		-2.5	32	0.4187436	1.674974527
Kansas		6	0	15	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	15	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	15	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-19.2	48	0.0576012	0.518410794
Maine	4		-15.8	46	0.0974384	0.194876809
Maryland	10		0	15	0.5	4
Michigan	16		-1.8	31	0.4412984	6.17817713
Minnesota	10		-11.6	42	0.1706236	1.364988505
Mississippi		6	0	15	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	13	0.5972093	4.777674656
Montana		3	7	8	0.717119	0.717118993
Nebraska		5	13	4	0.8569158	2.570747406
Nevada	6		-5.3	37	0.3318428	1.327371262
New Hampshire	4		-5.7	38	0.3200183	0.640036584
New Jersey	14		-15	45	0.1092266	1.31071894
New Mexico	5		-12.3	44	0.1564551	0.469365272
New York	29		-25.2	49	0.0193438	0.522281885
North Carolina	15	0	1.3	14	0.5424692	7.052100196
North Dakota		3	13	4	0.8569158	0.856915802
Ohio	18		-2.6	33	0.4155414	6.648662907
Oklahoma		7	35	2	0.9979575	4.989787448
Oregon	7		-6	39	0.3112675	1.556337676
Pennsylvania	20		-8	40	0.2558003	4.604404603
Rhode Island	4		0	15	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	15	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	15	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	8	0.717119	6.454070935
Texas		38	7	8	0.717119	25.81628374
Utah		6	40	1	0.9994842	3.997936611
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0054898	0.005489809
Virginia	13		-3	34	0.4027907	4.430697348
Washington	12		-11.5	41	0.1727127	1.727126988
West Virginia		5	0	15	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-3	34	0.4027907	3.222325344
Wyoming		3	6	12	0.6887325	0.688732465
			0
Total	315	220	12.1887		0.4712875	0.414067639
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9925129				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11	12	0.0197618				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	4	0.5223873				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	5	2	0.8253043	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	5	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	5	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	2.7	3	0.6933315	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	5	0.5				-1
			0
			5.34319		0.5461081
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	7.4	3	0.7668843			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-17.5	31	0.0424354			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	22	0.3726181			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	9	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6	24	0.2773351			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0244619			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9806667			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.2	8	0.5078557			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	9	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-12	28	0.1186916			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	0	9	0.5			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	9	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	6	7.5	0.7226649	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	8	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	20	0.4412921			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9159722	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.7	5	0.6782371			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-34	33	0.0004074			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11	27	0.1393842			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	23	0.3288531			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	3	6	0.6161513			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-10.5	26	0.1506011			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-15.2	29	0.0672443			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	9	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	9	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	9	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	9	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	9	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.1	20	0.496072			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-16	30	0.0575816			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	9	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-8	25	0.2154355	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	7	0.5392176			1
			0
			10.1561		0.4230322
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8833882
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.922074
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	0	8	10	15	10	8.6	29	0.8888583
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4212555
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.922074
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	-10	-5	-5	-3.4	93	0.3147201
Arizona 9	Barber		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3351456
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	0	-1	-10	-10	-10	-6.2	108	0.1894621
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	80	0.4773656
California 9	McNerney	Gill	0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	93	0.3147201
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7148687
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1468178
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	10	10	6.6	47	0.8255298
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9631236
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3047112
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	77	0.5226344
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	29	0.8888583
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	39	0.8596087
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3047112
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	107	0.1972467
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	76	0.545196
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7051537
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9261278
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6225616
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.7	105	0.20928
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8327351
Florida 9	Grayson	Buchanan	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3560706
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	15	15	5	7.8	38	0.8658414
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8833882
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	36	0.8777297
Florida 16	Fitzgerald		0	5	10	5	10	6	49	0.8027533
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6225616
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9178537
Florida 22		Hasner	0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3351456
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	53	0.7610179
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	110	0.1602543
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	100	0.256938
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.324867
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4212555
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6544509
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.324867
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	55	0.7338278
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	33	0.8833882
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	116	0.1281187
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	113	0.1341586
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6225616
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7051537
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	-10	-5	-15	-4.7	101	0.2523842
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	112	0.1403913
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9407473
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2217348
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.077926
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2217348
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.922074
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6952888
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	36	0.8777297
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	24	0.9041606
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	5	15	6.2	48	0.8105379
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	118	0.1058577
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8465614
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	26	0.8992422
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9134634
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4101863
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	116	0.1281187
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	44	0.8397457
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	2	5	10	5	4.4	55	0.7338278
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9300184
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0662506
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9134634
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0592527
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	27	0.8941423
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.077926
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3351456
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0865366
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	15	5	5	10	10	7.5	40	0.8564197
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	74	0.5787445
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	0	-1	0	0	-5	-1.2	81	0.4323873
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	51	0.7866149
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	87	0.3455491
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	99	0.2948463
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	102	0.2389821
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	29	0.8888583
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	7	0	5	5	3.4	63	0.6852799
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9261278
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	72	0.5898137
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4101863
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	119	0.1007578
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.922074
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	75	0.5564269
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	109	0.1818695
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	21	0.9089
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	0	11	0	5	5	4.2	57	0.7244284
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	5	5.4	52	0.7782652
North Carolina 11	Rogers		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	29	0.8888583
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.922074
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	23	0.9065525
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7148687
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8327351
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-3	4	0	0	5	1.5	73	0.5842875
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	50	0.7947783
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.077926
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1007578
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9134634
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	113	0.1341586
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8465614
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	41	0.8465614
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6544509
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	0	6	0	0	-5	0.2	78	0.5113218
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9261278
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	21	0.9089
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	24	0.9041606
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	113	0.1341586
South Carolina 7			0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9261278
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9407473
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0865366
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	95	0.3047112
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9337494
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9134634
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6225616
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	125	0.0865366
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1007578
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	-15	13	0	0	-5	0.1	79	0.5056614
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	0	5	5	10	5	5	53	0.7610179
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	124	0.0911
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3047112
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1007578
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	119	0.1007578
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	27	0.8941423
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	129	0.077926
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9373244
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	106	0.2052217
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	128	0.0821463
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	65	0.6648544
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	63	0.6852799