Friday, May 25, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (5/25/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 54% of the vote.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 246; Democrats 189;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

12

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

4.2

8

0.6723666

6.051299293

Arkansas

6

0

12

0.5

2

California

55

0

12

0.5

26.5

Colorado

9

-13

47

0.0835024

0.584516828

Connecticut

7

0

12

0.5

2.5

DC

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Florida

0

29

1.4

11

0.5591518

15.09709951

Georgia

16

0

12

0.5

7

Hawaii

4

0

12

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

12

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

12

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

3

0.8306393

7.475753565

Iowa

6

-4

37

0.3353463

1.341385274

Kansas

6

0

12

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

12

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

12

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-21

48

0.012798

0.115181891

Maine

4

-8

43

0.1975527

0.395105409

Maryland

10

0

12

0.5

4

Michigan

16

0

12

0.5

7

Minnesota

10

-10

45

0.1438923

1.151138711

Mississippi

6

0

12

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

9

0.6250981

5.000785152

Montana

3

7

4

0.7715907

0.771590737

Nebraska

5

13

2

0.9164976

2.749492788

Nevada

6

-7.4

42

0.2157535

0.863013906

New Hampshire

4

-6.4

40

0.2481521

0.496304299

New Jersey

14

-9

44

0.1693607

2.03232858

New Mexico

5

-12.3

46

0.0955244

0.286573288

New York

29

-23.7

49

0.0058795

0.158746285

North Carolina

15

0

2.7

10

0.612947

7.96831161

North Dakota

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

-4.6

39

0.3124289

4.998862514

Oklahoma

7

35

1

0.9999006

4.999502887

Oregon

7

-4

37

0.3353463

1.676731593

Pennsylvania

20

-7.3

41

0.2188787

3.939817335

Rhode Island

4

0

12

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

12

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

12

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

7

4

0.7715907

6.944316637

Texas

38

7

4

0.7715907

27.77726655

Utah

6

0

12

0.5

2

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.0004916

0.000491616

Virginia

13

-3.2

36

0.3668687

4.035556184

Washington

12

0

12

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

12

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-1.6

35

0.432474

3.459791914

Wyoming

3

6

7

0.7381969

0.738196886

0

Total

315

220

9.40739

0.4588764

0.458871635

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

4

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.9734949

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

4

0.5

-1

Louisiana

Jindal

0

4

0.5

1

Mississippi

Barbour

0

4

0.5

1

Missouri

Nixon

-18

14

0.003692

-1

Montana

Schweitzer

0

4

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

-2

13

0.3829785

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

7.3

2

0.861368

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

4

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

4

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

4

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

3

0.8257884

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

0

4

0.5

-1

0

6.71891

0.5390944

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

10.8

3

0.8561051

1

California

Feinstein

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

24

0.3726661

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-8.4

27

0.2041854

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.0245061

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

21

1

0.9806287

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.6

9

0.5235457

1

Maine

Pingree

Summers

-3

23

0.3838927

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-15

29

0.069923

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

4

7.5

0.6530977

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2.5

6

0.5971824

Gain

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

2

0.9158891

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

4.4

5

0.6675169

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-35

33

0.0002857

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11

28

0.139478

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-4.5

25

0.3289156

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

10

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-6.7

26

0.2548057

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-16

31

0.0576526

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.4

22

0.4842978

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

29

0.069923

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

7.6

4

0.7727774

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5392023

1

0

10.1601

0.4514084

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8876097

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9257901

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

27

0.8930323

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4198337

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9257901

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4198337

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

90

0.332311

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-5

-4.2

99

0.2719397

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

75

0.5914287

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

94

0.3115908

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7183863

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

110

0.1424446

California 21

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

62

0.6985549

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9656868

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-5

-4.6

102

0.2531012

California 26

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

80

0.5230482

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

86

0.3643585

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

38

0.8639639

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3014451

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.1929487

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

79

0.5460195

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

59

0.7085493

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9297644

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

66

0.6781183

Connecticut 5

Murphy

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

110

0.1424446

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8371206

Florida 9

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

88

0.3535568

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

59

0.7085493

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8876097

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

33

0.8819935

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

36

0.8761816

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6247309

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

24

0.8982636

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-5

-5

-3

90

0.332311

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

5

5

52

0.7650273

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1558659

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

102

0.2531012

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

93

0.3218817

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

86

0.3643585

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

67

0.6571282

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

99

0.2719397

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

50

0.7824144

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

30

0.8876097

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1238184

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1298277

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6247309

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

59

0.7085493

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-10

-5

-15

-4.2

99

0.2719397

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

113

0.1360361

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9440431

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.4

104

0.2175856

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0742099

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-10

-10

-10

-7.4

110

0.1424446

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9257901

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

54

0.7468988

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

33

0.8819935

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8509456

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

33

0.8819935

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1298277

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8509456

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

36

0.8761816

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9335729

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

80

0.5230482

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-10

-15

-7

108

0.1558659

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

43

0.8441341

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

10

10

5.2

51

0.7738153

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

17

0.912836

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0627805

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

14

0.9173295

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0559569

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

24

0.8982636

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0742099

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

90

0.332311

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0826705

New York 11

Grimm

0

5

5

10

5

5

52

0.7650273

New York 18

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

77

0.5801663

New York 19

Gibson

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

73

0.6026161

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

49

0.7908218

New York 21

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

89

0.3428718

New York 24

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

98

0.2914507

New York 25

Slaughter

0

5

-5

-5

-5

-2

85

0.3862803

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

27

0.8930323

New York 27

Hochul

0

7

0

5

5

3.4

64

0.6884092

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

20

0.9081626

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

75

0.5914287

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4085713

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1238184

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9257901

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

78

0.5574525

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

107

0.1775124

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

17

0.912836

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

5

5

4.2

56

0.7280603

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

48

0.8224876

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

27

0.8930323

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

15

15

10

9

0.9257901

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

23

0.9033061

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7183863

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8371206

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

73

0.6026161

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

10

6.8

45

0.8371206

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

130

0.0742099

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

122

0.0966939

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

14

0.9173295

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1298277

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8509456

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8509456

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

67

0.6571282

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

69

0.6247309

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9297644

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

17

0.912836

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

20

0.9081626

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1298277

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

20

0.9081626

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9440431

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0826705

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

95

0.3014451

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9372195

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

14

0.9173295

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

69

0.6247309

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

126

0.0826705

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

122

0.0966939

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

62

0.6985549

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

10

10

7

43

0.8441341

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

121

0.1123903

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3014451

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

122

0.0966939

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-10

-15

-8

118

0.1238184

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

24

0.8982636

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

122

0.0966939

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9407082

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

105

0.2009652

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

129

0.0783536

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

66

0.667689

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

5

10

4.4

55

0.7375661

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