2012 Election Polls and Models (5/25/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 54% of the vote.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 246; Democrats 189;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	12	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	4.2	8	0.6723666	6.051299293
Arkansas		6	0	12	0.5	2
California	55		0	12	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		-13	47	0.0835024	0.584516828
Connecticut	7		0	12	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	12	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	1.4	11	0.5591518	15.09709951
Georgia		16	0	12	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	12	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	12	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	12	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	3	0.8306393	7.475753565
Iowa	6		-4	37	0.3353463	1.341385274
Kansas		6	0	12	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	12	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	12	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-21	48	0.012798	0.115181891
Maine	4		-8	43	0.1975527	0.395105409
Maryland	10		0	12	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	12	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		-10	45	0.1438923	1.151138711
Mississippi		6	0	12	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	9	0.6250981	5.000785152
Montana		3	7	4	0.7715907	0.771590737
Nebraska		5	13	2	0.9164976	2.749492788
Nevada	6		-7.4	42	0.2157535	0.863013906
New Hampshire	4		-6.4	40	0.2481521	0.496304299
New Jersey	14		-9	44	0.1693607	2.03232858
New Mexico	5		-12.3	46	0.0955244	0.286573288
New York	29		-23.7	49	0.0058795	0.158746285
North Carolina	15	0	2.7	10	0.612947	7.96831161
North Dakota		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		-4.6	39	0.3124289	4.998862514
Oklahoma		7	35	1	0.9999006	4.999502887
Oregon	7		-4	37	0.3353463	1.676731593
Pennsylvania	20		-7.3	41	0.2188787	3.939817335
Rhode Island	4		0	12	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	12	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	4	0.7715907	6.944316637
Texas		38	7	4	0.7715907	27.77726655
Utah		6	0	12	0.5	2
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0004916	0.000491616
Virginia	13		-3.2	36	0.3668687	4.035556184
Washington	12		0	12	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	12	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-1.6	35	0.432474	3.459791914
Wyoming		3	6	7	0.7381969	0.738196886
			0
Total	315	220	9.40739		0.4588764	0.458871635
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	4	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9734949				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	4	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	4	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	4	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.003692				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	4	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-2	13	0.3829785				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7.3	2	0.861368	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	4	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	4	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	4	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	3	0.8257884	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	4	0.5				-1
			0
			6.71891		0.5390944
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	10.8	3	0.8561051			1
California	Feinstein		0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	24	0.3726661			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-8.4	27	0.2041854			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0245061			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9806287			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.6	9	0.5235457			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	23	0.3838927	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	29	0.069923			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	4	7.5	0.6530977	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	6	0.5971824	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9158891	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.4	5	0.6675169			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.0002857			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11	28	0.139478			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	25	0.3289156			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	10	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-6.7	26	0.2548057			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-16	31	0.0576526			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.4	22	0.4842978			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	29	0.069923			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	7.6	4	0.7727774	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5392023			1
			0
			10.1601		0.4514084
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8876097
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	10	10	15	8.6	27	0.8930323
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4198337
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4198337
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	90	0.332311
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-5	-4.2	99	0.2719397
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	75	0.5914287
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	94	0.3115908
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7183863
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	110	0.1424446
California 21			0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6985549
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9656868
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2531012
California 26			0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	80	0.5230482
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	86	0.3643585
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8639639
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3014451
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.1929487
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	79	0.5460195
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.7085493
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9297644
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	66	0.6781183
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	110	0.1424446
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8371206
Florida 9			0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	88	0.3535568
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.7085493
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8876097
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	33	0.8819935
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	36	0.8761816
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	24	0.8982636
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	90	0.332311
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	52	0.7650273
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1558659
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2531012
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	93	0.3218817
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	86	0.3643585
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	67	0.6571282
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	99	0.2719397
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	50	0.7824144
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8876097
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1238184
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.7085493
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-10	-5	-15	-4.2	99	0.2719397
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	113	0.1360361
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9440431
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.4	104	0.2175856
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0742099
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-10	-7.4	110	0.1424446
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	54	0.7468988
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	33	0.8819935
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	33	0.8819935
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	36	0.8761816
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9335729
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	80	0.5230482
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-10	-15	-7	108	0.1558659
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	43	0.8441341
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	10	10	5.2	51	0.7738153
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	17	0.912836
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0627805
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	14	0.9173295
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0559569
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	24	0.8982636
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0742099
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	90	0.332311
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0826705
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	10	5	5	52	0.7650273
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	77	0.5801663
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	73	0.6026161
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	49	0.7908218
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	89	0.3428718
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	98	0.2914507
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-5	-2	85	0.3862803
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	27	0.8930323
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	0	5	5	3.4	64	0.6884092
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.9081626
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	75	0.5914287
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4085713
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1238184
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	78	0.5574525
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	107	0.1775124
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	17	0.912836
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	5	5	4.2	56	0.7280603
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	48	0.8224876
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	27	0.8930323
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	23	0.9033061
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7183863
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8371206
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	73	0.6026161
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	10	6.8	45	0.8371206
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0742099
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	14	0.9173295
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	67	0.6571282
Pennsylvania 12	Critz		0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9297644
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	17	0.912836
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.9081626
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.9081626
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9440431
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0826705
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	95	0.3014451
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9372195
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	14	0.9173295
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0826705
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	62	0.6985549
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	10	7	43	0.8441341
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	121	0.1123903
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3014451
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1238184
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	24	0.8982636
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9407082
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.2009652
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	129	0.0783536
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	66	0.667689
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	10	4.4	55	0.7375661