Friday, May 11, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (5/11/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 344; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 54% of the vote.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 244; Democrats 191;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 344; Republican 191

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

7

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

7

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

4.2

5

0.7673936

6.906542225

Arkansas

6

0

7

0.5

2

California

55

0

7

0.5

26.5

Colorado

9

-13

48

0.0118975

0.083282767

Connecticut

7

0

7

0.5

2.5

DC

3

0

7

0.5

0.5

Florida

29

-0.4

38

0.4722753

12.75143425

Georgia

16

0

7

0.5

7

Hawaii

4

0

7

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

7

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

7

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

1

0.9411977

8.470779296

Iowa

6

0

7

0.5

2

Kansas

6

0

7

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

7

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

7

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-12

46

0.0184647

0.166182456

Maine

4

0

7

0.5

1

Maryland

10

0

7

0.5

4

Michigan

16

0

7

0.5

7

Minnesota

10

0

7

0.5

4

Mississippi

6

0

7

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

6

0.699038

5.592304359

Montana

3

7

2

0.8882265

0.888226477

Nebraska

5

0

7

0.5

1.5

Nevada

6

-7.4

44

0.0990991

0.396396548

New Hampshire

4

-3.5

41

0.271403

0.542806089

New Jersey

14

-9

45

0.0588023

0.705627606

New Mexico

5

-15

49

0.0045513

0.013653795

New York

29

-24

50

1.503E-05

0.000405676

North Carolina

15

0

-2.4

39

0.3382263

4.396942232

North Dakota

3

0

7

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

-4.2

42

0.2326064

3.721702712

Oklahoma

7

0

7

0.5

2.5

Oregon

7

0

7

0.5

2.5

Pennsylvania

20

-7

43

0.1117735

2.01192341

Rhode Island

4

0

7

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

7

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

7

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

0

7

0.5

4.5

Texas

38

7

2

0.8882265

31.97615318

Utah

6

0

7

0.5

2

Vermont

3

0

7

0.5

0.5

Virginia

13

-3.2

40

0.2889648

3.178612482

Washington

12

0

7

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

7

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-12.4

47

0.0155381

0.124305063

Wyoming

3

6

4

0.8515888

0.851588754

0

Total

344

191

5.75114

0.4491858

0.436273263

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

4

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.965538

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

4

0.5

-1

Louisiana

Jindal

0

4

0.5

1

Mississippi

Barbour

0

4

0.5

1

Missouri

Nixon

-18

14

0.0058928

-1

Montana

Schweitzer

0

4

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Lynch

0

4

0.5

-1

North Carolina

Etheridge

McCrory

12

2

0.9534241

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

4

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

4

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

4

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

3

0.8109697

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

0

4

0.5

-1

0

7.14711

0.5525589

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

10.3

3

0.8496689

1

California

Feinstein

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

25

0.3700932

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-8.4

27

0.1993097

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.0222295

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Lugar

21

1

0.9825804

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

1

8

0.5400211

1

Maine

Pingree

Summers

-3

24

0.3815317

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-15

30

0.0658666

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

4

7.5

0.6561386

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2.5

6

0.5991769

Gain

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Bruning

16.5

2

0.9513446

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

4.4

5

0.6708068

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-35

33

0.0002182

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11.3

29

0.1280827

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-4.5

26

0.3255658

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

10

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-8.5

28

0.1965143

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

0

10

0.5

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.5

23

0.4799642

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

30

0.0658666

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

5

4

0.6923189

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.5400211

1

0

9.95155

0.4611309

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

28

0.88865

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9266995

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

10

10

5

6.6

46

0.8309899

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4194776

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9266995

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4194776

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

89

0.3316024

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-5

-4.2

99

0.2710336

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

75

0.5918331

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

94

0.310809

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.7192642

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.141363

California 21

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

62

0.6993707

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9663054

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-5

-4.6

102

0.2521448

California 26

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4081669

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

86

0.363772

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

36

0.8650404

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3006293

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.191881

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

78

0.5462258

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

5

10

4.8

55

0.7570324

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9306535

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

65

0.6788644

Connecticut 5

Murphy

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.141363

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

43

0.8382074

Florida 9

0

-3

0

-10

-10

-4.6

102

0.2521448

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

5

5

10

4.8

55

0.7570324

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

28

0.88865

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

31

0.883045

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

34

0.8772429

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

70

0.6252738

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

23

0.8992775

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-5

-5

-3

89

0.3316024

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

10

6

50

0.808119

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.154779

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

102

0.2521448

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

92

0.3211356

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

86

0.363772

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

68

0.6577977

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

99

0.2710336

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

52

0.7834468

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

28

0.88865

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

119

0.1227571

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

115

0.1287581

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

70

0.6252738

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

61

0.7093971

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-10

-5

-10

-3.2

92

0.3211356

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

114

0.1349596

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9448456

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-5

-5

-4.4

101

0.2615016

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0733005

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-10

-10

-10

-7.4

111

0.141363

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9266995

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

57

0.7478552

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

31

0.883045

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

37

0.8520308

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

31

0.883045

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

115

0.1287581

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

37

0.8520308

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

34

0.8772429

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9344411

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.5231519

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-10

-15

-7

108

0.154779

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

40

0.845221

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

10

10

5.2

53

0.7748318

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

16

0.9138018

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0619337

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

13

0.9182773

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0551544

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

23

0.8992775

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0733005

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

89

0.3316024

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0817227

New York 11

Grimm

0

5

5

10

5

5

54

0.7660259

New York 18

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

76

0.5805224

New York 19

Gibson

0

-1

0

5

5

1.8

73

0.6030678

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

51

0.791868

New York 21

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

88

0.3422023

New York 24

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

98

0.2906029

New York 25

Slaughter

0

5

-5

-5

-5

-2

85

0.3857824

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

26

0.89406

New York 27

Hochul

0

7

15

5

5

6.4

47

0.8235688

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

19

0.9091455

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

0

5

0

10

3

66

0.6683976

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

79

0.5231519

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.154779

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

9

0.9266995

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

77

0.5577094

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

107

0.1764312

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

16

0.9138018

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

0

5

3.2

64

0.6788644

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

47

0.8235688

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

26

0.89406

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

10

5

7

40

0.845221

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

22

0.9043051

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

59

0.7192642

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

43

0.8382074

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

73

0.6030678

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

10

6.8

43

0.8382074

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0733005

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

119

0.1227571

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

13

0.9182773

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

115

0.1287581

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

37

0.8520308

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

10

6.2

49

0.8159448

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

68

0.6577977

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

0

6

0

0

-5

0.2

81

0.5115808

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9306535

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

16

0.9138018

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

19

0.9091455

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

115

0.1287581

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

19

0.9091455

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9448456

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0817227

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

95

0.3006293

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9380663

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

13

0.9182773

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

70

0.6252738

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0817227

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

123

0.0956949

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

62

0.6993707

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

10

10

7

40

0.845221

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

122

0.11135

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

95

0.3006293

Washington 6

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0733005

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-10

-15

-8

119

0.1227571

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

23

0.8992775

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

123

0.0956949

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9415331

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

105

0.1999072

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0774246

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

66

0.6683976

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

5

10

4.4

58

0.7384984

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