Obama’s Lowlights (5/31/12)

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel – “We see no reason to remove Walker from office. We recommend him in the June 5 recall election.”

Bain Capital - Newark Mayor Cory Booker, a surrogate for President Obama's re-election effort, slammed a recent Obama campaign ad for its attack on Mitt Romney's tenure at private equity firm Bain Capital.

G8 - Leaders of the world’s wealthiest nations agreed to more government spending in Europe as way to revive the continent’s struggling economy, shifting away from the idea that the surest way to recovery was through strict fiscal austerity.

Occupy Movement - The Cook County State's Attorney's office charged Sebastian Senakiewicz, 24, of Chicago, with falsely making a terrorist threat. Mark Neiweem, 28, of Chicago, is charged with attempted possession of explosives or incendiary devices. Two more activists have been charged with crimes tied to the NATO summit, one who wanted to blow up a Chicago bridge.

Religion - Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan of New York, president of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB), in a statement applauded 43 dioceses, hospitals, schools and church agencies for filing 12 lawsuits around the nation saying the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services mandate violates religious freedom. In a new web ad team Obama has released portrays the future and dreams of young American girls as unattainable unless they have mandated birth control coverage. In other news, Bill Maher referred to Mormonism as a cult. What’s worse, more and more news outlets are beginning to question Mormonism – the NY Times and MSM are leading the way.

Planned Parenthood – In a tweet, the organization wished everyone a “Happy masturbation month! We’ve got lots of information on masturbation.” Wonderful!

Afghanistan – The United States’ military will withdraw from Afghanistan by 2014.

Taxpayer Money - President Obama gave a press conference at the NATO Summit in his hometown of Chicago and made it a point to let taxpayers know they were paying for his hotel room, (and the rooms of hundreds of secret service agents too) instead of staying at home in Chicago because it, "stimulates the economy." His house was only 15 minutes away....

ObamaCare – Health and Human Services has hired a PR firm to promote ObamaCare at a cost of 20 million to the taxpayers.

Airline Security - The Senate Appropriations Committee moved forward with legislation to increase airline passenger security fees, beating back a GOP attempt to keep them at current levels.

Lobbyists - The Washington Post reports that K-Street lobbyist culture is alive and well at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue -- an illustration of just one more broken 2008 campaign promise from President Obama.

Gay Marriage - The Coalition of African American Pastors announced that it does not agree with the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People’s decision to endorse the legalization of same-sex marriage.

Public Colleges – According to a Washington Post survey, public university President’s compensation is rapidly rising and they earn much more than private university leaders.

Civility - South Carolina AFL-CIO President Donna Dewitt was seen beating a piñata with a photo attachment of Governor Nikki Haley.

Primaries – In Kentucky and Arkansas the President received only 58% of the vote against “uncommitted” and some unknown local candidate (John Wolfe) respectively.

The Separation of Church and State Paradigm

Separation of church and state is not in the Constitution, but these words echoed by Thomas Jefferson have passed the test of time. In essence, the government should not enact any law or policy that favors one religion over another and vice versa. This lack of intervention style of governance is called laissez faire. In this instance, laissez faire for the most part is a good policy because it prevents one religion from receiving preferential treatment over other religious denominations. And if laissez faire is a good premise for government policy to follow, it is a shame that this standard is not applied to other aspects between the societal and government relationship. If this were there case there would be no need for lobbyists because there would be no government ties to special interests.

Over the two plus centuries of America’s existence there has been a major paradigm shift in how the Constitution has been interpreted. For instance, today, the first amendment, freedom of speech, also means freedom of expression. The Constitution’s “necessary clause”, the “commerce clause”, and even the “contracts clause” interpretation have all expanded over the past two hundred years. This has enabled the federal government to expand and grow at an alarming rate. Today, we have fewer freedoms because the federal government’s thirst for taxpayer money to pay for their ever increasing expansion is forcing more and more people into poverty.

All government laws and policies are for the most part unfair and inconsistently enforced. Take for example the new Obamacare reform of the healthcare industry. The government has issued 111 waivers to union groups and corporations who are represented by lobbyists. Meanwhile; the other 99% of corporation and union groups must comply with the law. This unfair law could have been avoided, if and only if, the government followed a laissez faire approach of governance and did not interfere in the healthcare industry.

Why does separation of church and state pass the test of time, but other aspects of Constitutional law and government intervention fail miserably over time? Today, the government gives tens of billions of dollars to thousands of different groups, but ignores other similar entities. For example, the government gives money to National Public Radio and to left leaning special interest groups such as ACORN, but neglects to yield the same treatment to similar entities. This is not fair, nor is it consistent. The stimulus, for instance, gave money to select companies, charities, and non-profit groups while ignoring others. The Toxic Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailed out some banks and left others to fail. It seems that companies, organizations, and groups that have lobbyist working for them in Washington DC reap the benefits and those who do not play the game go extinct. Although the quid pro quo process between lobbyists and politicians may not been seen as corrupt or illegal, but giving one company a sweet heart deal in return for campaign contributions is sleazy. All of this hypocrisy and contradictory policy can be avoided if the government practiced laissez fair and did not feel compelled to generate a massive paradigm shift in the government’s societal role.  

The bottom line is that the only way the government can avoid being unfair and inconsistent with its policies is to practice a form of laissez faire. The government has done this successfully when it comes to separation of church and state. But there has been a dramatic paradigm shift over the past two hundred years where the government has expanded and grown so much they inconsistently interfere into societal aspects such as healthcare, green companies, charities, and so on. I will follow the philosophy that the federal government should use laissez faire for everything, not just between religions, but for all domestic and foreign policy. Yes, sometimes the federal government must intervene in the event of a crisis, but there should be only a few exceptions to the rule.    

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

Political Hypothesis

Many political subjects, problems, and issues are based on imperfect mathematical models or hypothesis (that politicians do not understand). Thus, it is hard to understand why both liberal and conservative followers claim to be 100% correct on issues. Here are a few examples:

Taxes – Conservatives believe that lower taxes results in more consumer spending and creates a better environment for industries to compete and grow. Liberals believe in higher taxes to spread the wealth from the rich to the poor. Thus, the argument is does higher taxes on the wealthy hurt or help the economy? This is a complex problem that even most economist cannot accurately answer even if they create mathematical models (remember models are by no means perfect at predicting the future). It is indeed plausible that during certain years the liberal tax philosophy works better than the conservative tax model (only during good times). I have spent many hours crunching economic numbers and my results indicate the conservative tax approach works best over 90% of the time.

Climate Change – Democrats insist that climate change is manmade, while Republicans say it is not. Once again, there are very few liberals or conservatives in this country that can argue this subject with complete clarity without completely understanding the models used to calculate and draw conclusions on the subject. And what’s worse is that the only reasonable solution Democrats have to this problem is cap and trade, which will turn the U.S. economy upside down. There are other reasonable solutions, but politicians fail to look at them because they are tied to lobbyists and only care about themselves and making money.

Economic Policy – Progressives believe in a Keynesian model where government spending stimulates the economy. On the other hand, conservatives believe in supply side or trickledown economics where the consumer stimulates the economy. Keynesian approaches used during the FDR, Carter, and Obama administrations were arguably utter failures. But some economists still argue that government stimulus during these presidencies did combat potentially higher unemployment rates and obtained some economic growth. In fact; Obama is generating fictitious statistics such as “saved jobs” to defend his hypothesis that government stimulus spending is the best way to reverse an economic recession.

Entitlement Programs – Democrats follow the hypothesis that social programs and government handouts make America a better nation because it shows compassion. On the other hand, Republicans follow the thought process that government handouts do very little to place any urgency or incentive on people to better themselves. In some respects the Democrats are correct because there are always hard working Americans who are going through a tough time and require assistance. On the other hand, Republicans are correct because there is a large portion of the population that takes advantage of social programs and they provide nothing positive towards society over their lifetimes. It should be easy to find a middle ground to reform these programs, but it is impossible if everyone is hard headed.

If only politicians and Americans could understand that their philosophies are not necessarily 100% correct, we could compromise. For instance, on climate change we could all agree that carbon emissions are a pollutant and decide on a solution that does not affect our economy. On entitlements we can agree that people can use assistance from time to time but place a lifetime cap on Medicaid and Food Stamps. On economic policy we can agree to a two prong approach that consists of some government spending and some tax cuts. On taxes we can agree to cut all write offs.

In a recent study (over the past 30 years) of the most popular economic and political pundits - far less than half of their predictions were correct. And it is important to note, in this study, these so called experts merely had to predict the outcome out of two possibilities such as would Quebec succeed from Canada, Yes or No. In other words, a monkey or a two year old could prognosticate better than these experts since by the law averages they should get 50% correct. Okay, let me have it, I know this will be an unpopular post.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

Obama’s Lowlights (5/28/12)

Greece - Greece may be forced to leave the euro-zone if the country refuses to implement spending cuts to get its budget deficit under control. In other news, Greeks withdrew almost $900 million from banks in a single day out of fears that their currency will be rapidly devalued if Greece leaves the euro and returns to the drachma. The country is in a continued political vacuum following an inconclusive election earlier this month.

Iran - Iran and the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency began their second day of talks over suspicions that Tehran might have tested atomic weapons technology. The UN has been unable to gain access to Iranian facilities thought to be used for its nuclear program.

Bigotry – Obama called Americans bigots on the view when explaining why his reelection bid is close "When your name is Barack Obama, it [election]'s always tight".

Obama Budget – After the House rejected his budget 414-0, the Senate followed suit – 99-0.

Wisconsin - A quarterly report released today by the Department of Workforce Development (DWD) shows Wisconsin created 23,321 jobs in 2011. Wisconsin employers have now put more than 33,521 people back to work so far under Governor Walker’s leadership.

Debt Ceiling – Democrat House (Clyburn) and Senate (Boxer) leaders stated this past week they do not see any reason to have a debt ceiling limit at all.

Crime - Puzzling break-ins over the last month at the offices of at least three House members and several committees have U.S. Capitol Police gumshoes working to find a pattern and the culprits, with missing items ranging from cash and expensive computer equipment to autographed baseballs and alcohol.

Maryland - In Maryland, more than 300,000 residents earning more than $100,000 a year will pay higher income taxes to fund record spending. Compare the state’s new 8.95 percent rate with neighboring Virginia’s 5.75 percent top rate.

Post Office - At a news briefing, Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe said the agency's mail processing network had simply become too big, given declining first-class mail volume and mounting debt. It will now consolidate nearly 250 plants as originally proposed, including 48 this summer, but will stretch out the remainder over a longer time frame in 2013 and 2014.

Elizabeth Warren - Two of the possibly plagiarized recipes by Elizabeth Warren, said in the Pow Wow Chow cookbook to have been passed down through generations of Oklahoma Native American members of the Cherokee tribe, are described in a New York Times News Service story as originating at Le Pavilion, a fabulously expensive French restaurant in Manhattan.

Boston - City Hall bureaucrats, “executive assistants” and other pencil-pushers enjoy free commutes from as far away as Falmouth and Nahant in taxpayer-funded city cars — including many who get sleek sedans as nothing more than a lucrative job perk, a Herald review found.

Campaigns – RNCC out raised the DNCC in April and Romney raised nearly as much money as Obama did in April.

California - Davis High School has been fined $15,000 after they were caught selling soda pop during lunch hour, which is a violation of federal law.

2012 Election Polls and Models (5/25/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 54% of the vote.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 246; Democrats 189;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	12	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	4.2	8	0.6723666	6.051299293
Arkansas		6	0	12	0.5	2
California	55		0	12	0.5	26.5
Colorado	9		-13	47	0.0835024	0.584516828
Connecticut	7		0	12	0.5	2.5
DC	3		0	12	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	1.4	11	0.5591518	15.09709951
Georgia		16	0	12	0.5	7
Hawaii	4		0	12	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	12	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	12	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	3	0.8306393	7.475753565
Iowa	6		-4	37	0.3353463	1.341385274
Kansas		6	0	12	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	12	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	12	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-21	48	0.012798	0.115181891
Maine	4		-8	43	0.1975527	0.395105409
Maryland	10		0	12	0.5	4
Michigan	16		0	12	0.5	7
Minnesota	10		-10	45	0.1438923	1.151138711
Mississippi		6	0	12	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	9	0.6250981	5.000785152
Montana		3	7	4	0.7715907	0.771590737
Nebraska		5	13	2	0.9164976	2.749492788
Nevada	6		-7.4	42	0.2157535	0.863013906
New Hampshire	4		-6.4	40	0.2481521	0.496304299
New Jersey	14		-9	44	0.1693607	2.03232858
New Mexico	5		-12.3	46	0.0955244	0.286573288
New York	29		-23.7	49	0.0058795	0.158746285
North Carolina	15	0	2.7	10	0.612947	7.96831161
North Dakota		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Ohio	18		-4.6	39	0.3124289	4.998862514
Oklahoma		7	35	1	0.9999006	4.999502887
Oregon	7		-4	37	0.3353463	1.676731593
Pennsylvania	20		-7.3	41	0.2188787	3.939817335
Rhode Island	4		0	12	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	12	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	12	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	4	0.7715907	6.944316637
Texas		38	7	4	0.7715907	27.77726655
Utah		6	0	12	0.5	2
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0004916	0.000491616
Virginia	13		-3.2	36	0.3668687	4.035556184
Washington	12		0	12	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	12	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-1.6	35	0.432474	3.459791914
Wyoming		3	6	7	0.7381969	0.738196886
			0
Total	315	220	9.40739		0.4588764	0.458871635
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	4	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9734949				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	4	0.5				-1
Louisiana		Jindal	0	4	0.5				1
Mississippi		Barbour	0	4	0.5				1
Missouri	Nixon		-18	14	0.003692				-1
Montana	Schweitzer		0	4	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-2	13	0.3829785				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7.3	2	0.861368	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	4	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	4	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	4	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	3	0.8257884	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin		0	4	0.5				-1
			0
			6.71891		0.5390944
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	10.8	3	0.8561051			1
California	Feinstein		0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	24	0.3726661			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-8.4	27	0.2041854			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0245061			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9806287			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.6	9	0.5235457			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	23	0.3838927	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-15	29	0.069923			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi		Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	4	7.5	0.6530977	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin		0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	6	0.5971824	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9158891	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.4	5	0.6675169			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-35	33	0.0002857			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11	28	0.139478			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	25	0.3289156			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	0	10	0.5			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-6.7	26	0.2548057			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-16	31	0.0576526			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.4	22	0.4842978			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	29	0.069923			-1
West Virginia	Manchin		0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	7.6	4	0.7727774	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5392023			1
			0
			10.1601		0.4514084
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8876097
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Arkansas 4	Ross		0	8	10	10	15	8.6	27	0.8930323
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4198337
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4198337
Arizona 9			0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	90	0.332311
California 3	Garamendi		0	-1	-5	-10	-5	-4.2	99	0.2719397
California 7		Lungren	0	3	0	0	5	1.6	75	0.5914287
California 9	McNerney		0	-2	-5	-5	-5	-3.4	94	0.3115908
California 10		Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7183863
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	110	0.1424446
California 21			0	3	5	5	5	3.6	62	0.6985549
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9656868
California 24	Capps		0	-3	-10	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2531012
California 26			0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	80	0.5230482
California 31		Miller	0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	86	0.3643585
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8639639
California 41			0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3014451
California 47			0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.1929487
California 52		Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	79	0.5460195
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.7085493
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9297644
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	66	0.6781183
Connecticut 5	Murphy		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	110	0.1424446
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8371206
Florida 9			0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	88	0.3535568
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.7085493
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8876097
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	33	0.8819935
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	36	0.8761816
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	10	15	8.8	24	0.8982636
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	90	0.332311
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	52	0.7650273
Illinois 8		Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1558659
Illinois 10		Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	102	0.2531012
Illinois 11		Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	93	0.3218817
Illinois 12	Costello		0	-2	0	-5	-5	-2.4	86	0.3643585
Illinois 13		Johnson	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	67	0.6571282
Illinois 17		Schilling	0	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	99	0.2719397
Indiana 2	Donnelly		0	7	5	5	10	5.4	50	0.7824144
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8876097
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1238184
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.7085493
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-10	-5	-15	-4.2	99	0.2719397
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	113	0.1360361
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9440431
Maryland 6		Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.4	104	0.2175856
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0742099
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-10	-10	-10	-7.4	110	0.1424446
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	54	0.7468988
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	33	0.8819935
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	33	0.8819935
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	36	0.8761816
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9335729
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	80	0.5230482
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-10	-15	-7	108	0.1558659
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	43	0.8441341
New Jersey 3		Runyan	0	1	5	10	10	5.2	51	0.7738153
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	10	15	15	9.4	17	0.912836
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0627805
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	14	0.9173295
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0559569
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	24	0.8982636
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0742099
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	90	0.332311
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0826705
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	10	5	5	52	0.7650273
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	77	0.5801663
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	73	0.6026161
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	49	0.7908218
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	89	0.3428718
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	98	0.2914507
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-5	-2	85	0.3862803
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	27	0.8930323
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	0	5	5	3.4	64	0.6884092
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.9081626
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	75	0.5914287
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4085713
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1238184
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	78	0.5574525
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	107	0.1775124
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	17	0.912836
North Carolina 7	McIntyre		0	11	0	5	5	4.2	56	0.7280603
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	10	6.4	48	0.8224876
North Carolina 11	Shuler		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	27	0.8930323
North Carolina 13	Miller		0	10	10	15	15	10	9	0.9257901
North Dakota 1		Berg	0	10	10	10	15	9	23	0.9033061
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7183863
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	45	0.8371206
Ohio 16		Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	73	0.6026161
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	10	6.8	45	0.8371206
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0742099
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	14	0.9173295
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.8509456
Pennsylvania 8		Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	67	0.6571282
Pennsylvania 12	Critz		0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	7	0.9297644
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	17	0.912836
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.9081626
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1298277
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	20	0.9081626
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9440431
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0826705
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	95	0.3014451
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9372195
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	14	0.9173295
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6247309
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0826705
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
Utah 4	Matheson		0	13	0	0	5	3.6	62	0.6985549
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	10	10	10	7	43	0.8441341
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	121	0.1123903
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3014451
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1238184
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	24	0.8982636
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	122	0.0966939
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9407082
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.2009652
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	129	0.0783536
Wisconsin 7		Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	66	0.667689
Wisconsin 8		Ribble	0	2	5	5	10	4.4	55	0.7375661