2012 Election Polls and Models (Actual)

Time to see how the model held up.

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote Projection: Obama 277; Romney 261 (R +88), Obama at 51.5% of winning the election.

Actual: Obama 323; Romney 206 (R +33)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Actual: Republicans 30; Democrats 18 (Including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

Actual: Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 196; Projection: Republicans 240; Democrats 198;

Actual: Democrats 201; Republicans 234

Popular Vote Projection: 48.9% Romney – 48.8% Obama – 2.3% other candidates

Actual: Romney 48%; Obama 51%

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 303; Republican 235

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 238; Democrats 200

Races Highlighted below where the incorrectly picked races and results. The model picked one Presidential state wrong (Florida), one governor race (Montana), 2 Senate Races wrong (Montana and Indiana), and 14 House races wrong. What was disappointing about the House projections is that 9 of those races had near a 2 to 1 probability of going the other way. It may be time to tweak the House model.

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	19	10	0.8106639	5.674647377
Alaska		3	25	6	0.8766392	0.876639245
Arizona		11	7.5	23	0.6358939	5.723045483
Arkansas		6	27	4	0.8945359	3.578143647
California	55		-14	42	0.258274	13.68852371
Colorado	9	0	-1.5	27	0.4722954	3.306068041
Connecticut	7		-10.8	38	0.3083943	1.541971475
Delaware	3		-20	44	0.1770465	0.177046493
DC	3		-75	51	0.0002554	0.000255381
Florida	0	29	1.5	25	0.5277	14.2480233
Georgia		16	12.3	17	0.7156299	10.01881868
Hawaii	4		-28	49	0.0972552	0.19451036
Idaho		4	38	3	0.9608546	1.921709279
Illinois	20		-15	43	0.2435246	4.383443596
Indiana		11	9.5	20	0.670094	6.030846004
Iowa	6		-2.4	29	0.4557283	1.822913069
Kansas		6	20	8	0.8229535	3.29181403
Kentucky		8	15	16	0.7564754	4.538852135
Louisiana		8	18	11	0.7978628	4.787176513
Massachusetts	11		-20	44	0.1770465	1.593418433
Maine	4		-11.5	39	0.2970719	0.594143865
Maryland	10		-20.7	46	0.1687509	1.350006802
Michigan	16		-3.8	32	0.4301198	6.021677608
Minnesota	10		-5.2	35	0.4048021	3.238416835
Mississippi		6	20	8	0.8229535	3.29181403
Missouri		10	11.6	19	0.7045299	5.636239281
Montana		3	9	21	0.6616629	0.661662902
Nebraska		5	16	14	0.7707574	2.312272273
Nevada	6		-2.8	30	0.448388	1.793551984
New Hampshire	4	0	-2	28	0.4630837	0.926167363
New Jersey	14		-11.8	40	0.2922784	3.507340582
New Mexico	5		-9.3	37	0.3332684	0.999805137
New York	29		-26.4	48	0.1106239	2.98684515
North Carolina	0	15	3	24	0.5552757	7.218583888
North Dakota		3	17.7	12	0.7939237	0.793923676
Ohio	18		-3	31	0.4447243	7.115589061
Oklahoma		7	27	4	0.8945359	4.472679559
Oregon	7		-6	36	0.3905047	1.952523531
Pennsylvania	20		-3.8	32	0.4301198	7.742156925
Rhode Island	4		-23	47	0.1432838	0.286567698
South Carolina		9	12	18	0.7108972	4.976280374
South Dakota		3	8.5	22	0.65315	0.653149961
Tennessee		11	25	6	0.8766392	7.889753205
Texas		38	17	13	0.7845573	28.24406378
Utah		6	52	1	0.9920099	3.968039526
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0432316	0.04323159
Virginia	13	0	-0.3	26	0.4944548	5.439002847
Washington	12		-13.6	41	0.2643008	2.643008306
West Virginia		5	16	14	0.7707574	2.312272273
Wisconsin	10		-4.2	34	0.422852	3.382815999
Wyoming		3	40	2	0.9680845	0.968084534
			0
Total	303	235	21.5824		0.5333475	0.484642613	0.43841526	0.486
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	6	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	11	4	0.6798829				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.3	9	0.3308274				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	1.5	5	0.52541	Gain	1		-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-3.6	8	0.4392157				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	15.7	3	0.7476351	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	28	2	0.8829124				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	53	1	0.9878351				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0742848				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-1	7	0.4830547				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1861283				-1
			0
			23.5359		0.5306532		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	4	7	0.5793408			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-20.6	26	0.1512545			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-5	17	0.4011935			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	-25	27	0.1054133			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6.9	20	0.3649128			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-17	23	0.1974177			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	9	0.51996			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-3.5	15	0.4304685	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	12	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13.2	22	0.2544074			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-31	30	0.0603782			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	20	4	0.8415955			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-4.5	18	0.4108989			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-28.5	28	0.0768653			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	0.4	10	0.50799	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	5	0.8025823	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.5	4.8	0.5695315			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-41.4	33	0.0191259			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-17.4	24	0.1919039			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-10.7	21	0.2961332			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5.7	6	0.6122911			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-5.3	18	0.3953989			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-5.4	19	0.3934725			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-26	28	0.0965697			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	38	2	0.9714124			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	22	3	0.8645822			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	41	1	0.9799213			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	-40	32	0.0226384			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-1.7	13	0.4660957			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-19	25	0.170806			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	31	0.0254678			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-2.2	14	0.4561595			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	9	0.5199595			1
			0
			19.9793		0.4017013		1
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability				Incumbent
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9579113				1
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687				1
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9646398	Gain	1		-1
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	1	3	0	-5	-5	-1.3	84	0.4309196	Gain	-1		1
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687				1
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	104	0.2105341				-1
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-2.5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.25	92	0.331751	Gain	-1		-1
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-15	-10	-8.7	115	0.1220733				-1
California 7	Bera	Lungren	5	3	0	-5	5	1.1	75	0.55854				1
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-5	-4.3	97	0.2824263				-1
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	0	-5	10	2.45	73	0.6285388				1
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1041245				-1
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	4	3	10	10	10	7	48	0.8256471	Gain	1		1
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9541776				1
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	1	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.5	85	0.4204245				-1
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	89	0.3638951	Gain	-1		-1
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	36	0.8751951				1
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	3	3	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.65108				1
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2961565	Gain	-1		1
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1743529	Gain	-1		-1
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	1.5	-1	0	-5	5	-0.05	78	0.4973297	Gain	-1		1
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	11	4	5	5	5	4.9	55	0.7440789				1
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139508				1
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	5	5	2.5	73	0.6310666				1
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-5	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3	91	0.3439836				-1
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	-1	4	5	10	10	5.7	53	0.7772889				1
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-13	-3	0	-15	-15	-7.9	111	0.1451218	Gain	-1		-1
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	3	4	-5	-5	-5	-1.9	86	0.3996101	Gain	-1		-1
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	6	7	5	5	15	7	48	0.8256471				1
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	9	1	15	15	15	10.1	13	0.9118292				1
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	17	5	10	10	10	8.7	35	0.8779267				1
Florida 18	Murphy	West	4	1	0	5	5	2.6	71	0.6361				1
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	19	0.9052304				1
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	-6	-5	-10	-5	-5	-5.6	101	0.2267231	Gain	-1		1
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	-4	10	0	5	5	3.6	61	0.68508	Gain	1		-1
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-12	-5	-10	-5	-10	-7.2	109	0.1675538	Gain	-1		1
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	5	-8	-5	-5	5	-2.1	88	0.389305	Gain	-1		1
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	-1	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.3	97	0.2824263	Gain	-1		1
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-3	-2	0	5	-5	-0.7	80	0.4626697				-1
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	-2	-1	0	-5	5	-0.4	79	0.47865	Gain	-1		1
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	3	-6	0	-5	-5	-2.9	90	0.3489236	Gain	-1		1
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	10	10	7.4	45	0.8390721	Gain	1		-1
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	54	0.7651317				1
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	112	0.1420905				-1
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-5	-15	-6.8	106	0.1813247				-1
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6658163	Gain	1		-1
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	57	0.7130311				1
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	0	-5	-5	-0.7	80	0.46267				-1
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.0677617				-1
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	5	0.9295692				1
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-1	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.5	105	0.1921047	Gain	-1		1
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313				-1
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	7.5	-7	5	5	10	3.4	63	0.67309	Gain	1		-1
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687				1
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-6	3	0	-5	-5	-2	87	0.39445	Gain	-1		1
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	9	6	10	5	15	8.1	40	0.8608977				1
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	27	0.8909546				1
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	8	1	10	10	10	7	48	0.8256471				1
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.119384				-1
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	8	1	10	10	15	8	42	0.8579095				1
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	31	0.8858687				1
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	5.5	8	5	10	15	8.15	39	0.8623757				1
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	-5	5	-0.8	82	0.4573558	Gain	-1		1
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	112	0.1420905				-1
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	7	7	10	10	10	8.1	40	0.8608977				1
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	51	0.8169054				1
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9180792				1
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0779435				-1
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9006334				1
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0704308				-1
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	33	0.880616				1
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313				-1
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-6	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3149248				-1
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0993666				-1
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	14	5	5	10	10	7.4	45	0.8390721				1
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	5	2	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.65108				1
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	9	-1	0	5	5	2.7	70	0.6411199				1
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9006334				1
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-8	1	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	101	0.2267231				-1
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-3	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.1	95	0.2915458	Gain	-1		1
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-11	-5	-10	-5	-10	-7.1	108	0.1709317				1
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	5	3	15	10	15	9.1	30	0.8884323				1
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	3	7	0	5	5	3.7	60	0.6898149	Gain	1		-1
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	9	6	15	15	15	11.1	4	0.9313574				1
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	2	0	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.66582				1
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-6	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	96	0.2869689	Gain	-1		1
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-14	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.4	134	0.0634877				-1
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687				1
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	9	0	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6510764				1
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	9	-2	0	-5	5	0.5	77	0.5266836				-1
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	5	0.9295692				1
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	11	11	0	-5	-5	1.3	74	0.56908	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	10	10	8.6	36	0.8751951	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	36	0.8751951	Gain	1		-1
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	14	0.9096687	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	7.5	10	10	10	15	9.75	20	0.9040961				1
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	1	5	5	5	5	4.1	58	0.7084542				1
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	15	10	7.8	44	0.8518036				1
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	-5	5	0.6	76	0.5320098				1
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	12	14	10	5	10	9	31	0.8858687	Gain	1		-1
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313				-1
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141313				-1
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9006334				1
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	19.5	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.85	103	0.2167695				-1
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	21	0.9006334				1
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	27	0.8909546				1
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	2	-1	5	10	5	4	59	0.7038435				1
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-4	6	0	-5	-5	-1.2	83	0.43619				-1
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139508				1
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	26	0.8958755				1
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139508				1
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.1481964				-1
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	27	0.8909546				1
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	5	10	10	10	15	9.5	25	0.8982747				1
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0993666				-1
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	2	-13	-5	-5	-5	-5.4	99	0.2348683				-1
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9220565				1
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	3	8	5	10	15	7.9	43	0.8548782				1
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	5	5	3.5	62	0.67791				1
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0993666				1
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141313				-1
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	4	13	0	5	-5	3	66	0.65602	Gain	1		-1
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	13	5	10	10	5	7.3	47	0.8357808				-1
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1041245				-1
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	1	-3	-5	-10	-10	-5.5	100	0.2307756				-1
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0799135				-1
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141313				-1
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	33	0.880616				1
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313				-1
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9258855				1
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	114	0.1248049				-1
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0947696				-1
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	6	0	5	5	10	4.6	56	0.7309901				1
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	10	10	10	6.4	52	0.8042166				1