2012 Election Polls and Models (Final Projections)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote Projection: Obama 277; Republican 261 (R +88), Obama at 51.5% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 196; Projection: Republicans 240; Democrats 198;

Popular Vote Projection: 48.9% Romney – 48.8% Obama – 2.3% other candidates (See Yesterday’s Post)

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 303; Republican 235 (Romney is behind narrowly in NH, VA, and CO in the polls, but I think he will win those states based on early voting, independent vote, and or Republican population)

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 238; Democrats 200

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	19	10	0.8106627	5.674638695
Alaska		3	25	6	0.876638	0.876638016
Arizona		11	7.5	23	0.6358933	5.723039371
Arkansas		6	27	4	0.8945347	3.578138898
California	55		-14	42	0.2582751	13.68858153
Colorado	9	0	-0.6	27	0.4889107	3.422375163
Connecticut	7		-10.8	38	0.3083952	1.541976057
Delaware	3		-20	44	0.1770477	0.177047745
DC	3		-75	51	0.0002554	0.000255398
Florida	0	29	1.8	25	0.5332335	14.39730561
Georgia		16	12.3	17	0.7156289	10.0188046
Hawaii	4		-28	49	0.0972563	0.194512682
Idaho		4	38	3	0.9608539	1.921707727
Illinois	20		-15	43	0.2435258	4.383463992
Indiana		11	9.5	20	0.6700932	6.03083854
Iowa	6		-3	31	0.4447246	1.778898408
Kansas		6	20	8	0.8229523	3.291809022
Kentucky		8	15	16	0.7564742	4.538845336
Louisiana		8	18	11	0.7978615	4.787169178
Massachusetts	11		-20	44	0.1770477	1.593429701
Maine	4		-11.5	39	0.2970729	0.594145784
Maryland	10		-20.7	46	0.1687521	1.350016857
Michigan	16		-3.8	32	0.4301202	6.021682646
Minnesota	10		-5.2	35	0.4048026	3.238420721
Mississippi		6	20	8	0.8229523	3.291809022
Missouri		10	11.6	19	0.7045289	5.636231556
Montana		3	9	21	0.6616621	0.661662108
Nebraska		5	16	14	0.7707563	2.312268766
Nevada	6		-2.9	30	0.4465559	1.786223449
New Hampshire	4	0	-2	28	0.4630839	0.926167746
New Jersey	14		-11.8	40	0.2922794	3.50735231
New Mexico	5		-9.3	37	0.3332692	0.999807582
New York	29		-26.4	48	0.1106251	2.986877593
North Carolina	0	15	3	24	0.5552754	7.218580173
North Dakota		3	17.7	12	0.7939225	0.79392246
Ohio	18		-2.8	29	0.4483883	7.17421221
Oklahoma		7	27	4	0.8945347	4.472673623
Oregon	7		-6	36	0.3905053	1.952526307
Pennsylvania	20		-3.9	33	0.4283009	7.709416547
Rhode Island	4		-23	47	0.1432851	0.286570205
South Carolina		9	12	18	0.7108962	4.976273453
South Dakota		3	8.5	22	0.6531492	0.653149204
Tennessee		11	25	6	0.876638	7.889742142
Texas		38	17	13	0.7845561	28.24402062
Utah		6	52	1	0.9920096	3.968038428
Vermont	3		-37	50	0.0432324	0.043232409
Virginia	13	0	-0.3	26	0.4944548	5.439003165
Washington	12		-13.6	41	0.2643019	2.64301903
West Virginia		5	16	14	0.7707563	2.312268766
Wisconsin	10		-4.2	34	0.4228524	3.382819169
Wyoming		3	40	2	0.9680838	0.968083844
			0
Total	303	235	21.5825		0.533566	0.485194698	0.440106373	0.488
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell	Cragg	0	6	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	11	4	0.6798829				1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-10.3	9	0.3308274				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	1.5	5	0.5254084	Gain	1		-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-3.6	8	0.4392157				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	15.7	3	0.7476351	Gain	1		-1
North Dakota	Taylor	Dalrymple	28	2	0.8829124				1
Utah	Cooke	Herbert	53	1	0.9878351				1
Vermont	Shumlin	Brock	-34	11	0.0742848				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	-1	7	0.4830547				-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	-21	10	0.1861283				-1
			0
			23.5359		0.5306532		2
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	4	7	0.5793408			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	-20.6	26	0.1512545			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	McMahon	-5	17	0.4011935			-1
Delaware	Carper	Wade	-25	27	0.1054133			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6.9	20	0.3649128			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-17	23	0.1974177			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	1	9	0.5199595			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	-3.5	15	0.4304685	Gain	-1	1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	12	0.5	Gain	0	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-13.2	22	0.2544074			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	-31	30	0.0603782			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	20	4	0.8415955			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Akin	-4.5	18	0.4108989			-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	-28.5	28	0.0768653			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	0.4	10	0.5079866	Gain	1	-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	17	5	0.8025823	Gain	1	-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	3.5	4.8	0.5695315			1
New York	Gillibrand	Long	-41.4	33	0.0191259			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-17.4	24	0.1919039			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-10.7	21	0.2961332			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	5.7	6	0.6122911			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-5.3	18	0.3953989			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-5.4	19	0.3934725			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	Hinkley	-26	28	0.0965697			-1
Tennessee	Clayton	Corker	38	2	0.9714124			1
Texas	Sadler	Cruz	22	3	0.8645822			1
Utah	Howell	Hatch	41	1	0.9799213			1
Vermont	Sanders	MacGovern	-40	32	0.0226384			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-1.7	13	0.4660957			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-19	25	0.170806			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	-39	31	0.0254678			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	-2.2	14	0.4561595			-1
Wyoming	Chesnut	Barrasso	1	9	0.5199595			1
			0
			19.9793		0.4017013		1
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1	Ellington	Crawford	25	7	15	15	15	12.9	2	0.9579113
Arkansas 2	Rule	Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687
Arkansas 4	Jeffress	Cotton	29	8	15	15	15	13.5	1	0.9646398
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick	Paton	1	3	0	-5	-5	-1.3	84	0.4309196
Arizona 5	Morgan	Salmon	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-6.1	3	-10	-10	-10	-6.01	104	0.2105341
Arizona 9	Sinema	Parker	-2.5	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.25	92	0.331751
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	-15	-1	-10	-15	-10	-8.7	115	0.1220733
California 7	Bera	Lungren	5	3	0	-5	5	1.1	75	0.5585362
California 9	McNerney	Gill	-9	-2	-5	-5	-5	-4.3	97	0.2824263
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	4.5	5	0	-5	10	2.45	73	0.6285388
California 16	Costa	Whelan	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1041245
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	4	3	10	10	10	7	48	0.8256471
California 23	Phillips	McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	3	0.9541776
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	1	-3	-5	-5	5	-1.5	85	0.4204245
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	89	0.3638951
California 31	Dutton	Miller	0	-2	15	15	15	8.6	36	0.8751951
California 36	Ruiz	Bono Mack	3	3	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6510764
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	-4	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4	94	0.2961565
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	107	0.1743529
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	1.5	-1	0	-5	5	-0.05	78	0.4973297
Colorado 3	Pace	Tipton	11	4	5	5	5	4.9	55	0.7440789
Colorado 4	Shaffer	Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139508
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	3	1	0	5	5	2.5	73	0.6310666
Connecticut 5	Esty	Roraback	-5	2.5	-5	-5	-5	-3	91	0.3439836
Florida 2	Lawson	Southerland	-1	4	5	10	10	5.7	53	0.7772889
Florida 9	Grayson	Long	-13	-3	0	-15	-15	-7.9	111	0.1451218
Florida 26	Garcia	Rivera	3	4	-5	-5	-5	-1.9	86	0.3996101
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	6	7	5	5	15	7	48	0.8256471
Florida 13	Ehrlich	Young	9	1	15	15	15	10.1	13	0.9118292
Florida 16	Fitzgerald	Buchanan	17	5	10	10	10	8.7	35	0.8779267
Florida 18	Murphy	West	4	1	0	5	5	2.6	71	0.6361049
Florida 7	Kendall	Mica	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	19	0.9052304
Florida 22	Frankel	Hasner	-6	-5	-10	-5	-5	-5.6	101	0.2267231
Georgia 12	Barrow	Anderson	-4	10	0	5	5	3.6	61	0.6850752
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	-12	-5	-10	-5	-10	-7.2	109	0.1675538
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	5	-8	-5	-5	5	-2.1	88	0.389305
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	-1	-6	-5	-5	-5	-4.3	97	0.2824263
Illinois 12	Enyart	Plummer	-3	-2	0	5	-5	-0.7	80	0.4626697
Illinois 13	Gill	Davis	-2	-1	0	-5	5	-0.4	79	0.4786474
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	3	-6	0	-5	-5	-2.9	90	0.3489236
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	10	10	10	7.4	45	0.8390721
Indiana 8	Crooks	Bucshon	0	7	5	5	10	5.4	54	0.7651317
Iowa 1	Braley	Lange	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	112	0.1420905
Iowa 2	Loebsack	Archer	0	-4	-10	-5	-15	-6.8	106	0.1813247
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6658163
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	4	4	5	5	5	4.2	57	0.7130311
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	-5	9	0	-5	-5	-0.7	80	0.4626697
Maine 2	Michaud	Raye	-15.5	-3	-15	-15	-15	-11.2	133	0.0677617
Maryland 1	Rosen	Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	5	0.9295692
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	-1	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.5	105	0.1921047
Massachusetts 9	Keating	Sheldon	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	7.5	-7	5	5	10	3.35	63	0.6730932
Missouri 2	Koenen	Wagner	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687
Michigan 1	McDowell	Benishek	-6	3	0	-5	-5	-2	87	0.3944483
Michigan 3	Pestka	Amash	9	6	10	5	15	8.1	40	0.8608977
Michigan 7	Haskell	Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	27	0.8909546
Michigan 11	Taj	Bentivolio	8	1	10	10	10	7	48	0.8256471
Minnesota 1	Walz	Quist	0	1	-15	-15	-15	-8.8	116	0.119384
Minnesota 2	Obermueller	Kline	8	1	10	10	15	8	42	0.8579095
Minnesota 3	Barnes	Paulsen	0	0	15	15	15	9	31	0.8858687
Minnesota 6	Graves	Bachman	5.5	8	5	10	15	8.15	39	0.8623757
Minnesota 8	Nolan	Cravaack	-2	-3	0	-5	5	-0.8	82	0.4573558
Minnesota 7	Peterson	Byberg	0	5	-15	-15	-15	-8	112	0.1420905
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	7	7	10	10	10	8.1	40	0.8608977
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	13.5	2	5	10	10	6.75	51	0.8169054
New Jersey 5	Gussen	Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	9	0.9180792
New Jersey 6	Pallone	Little	0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	131	0.0779435
New Jersey 7	Chivukula	Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9006334
New Jersey 8	Sires	Karczewski	0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	132	0.0704308
New York 2	Falcone	King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	33	0.880616
New York 3	Israel	Labate	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313
New York 1	Bishop	Altschuler	-6	0	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	93	0.3149248
New York 4	McCarthy	Becker	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0993666
New York 11	Murphy	Grimm	14	5	5	10	10	7.4	45	0.8390721
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	5	2	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6510764
New York 19	Schreiban	Gibson	9	-1	0	5	5	2.7	70	0.6411199
New York 22	Lamb	Hanna	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9006334
New York 21	Owens	Doheny	-8	1	-10	-5	-10	-5.6	101	0.2267231
New York 24	Maffei	Buerkle	-3	-4	-5	-5	-5	-4.1	95	0.2915458
New York 25	Slaughter	Brooks	-11	-5	-10	-5	-10	-7.1	108	0.1709317
New York 23	Shinagawa	Reed	5	3	15	10	15	9.1	30	0.8884323
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	3	7	0	5	5	3.7	60	0.6898149
Nebraska 2	Ewing	Terry	9	6	15	15	15	11.1	4	0.9313574
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	2	0	5	5	5	3.2	64	0.6658163
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	-6	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4.2	96	0.2869689
New Mexico 1	Grisham	Arnold-Jones	-14	-5	-15	-15	-15	-11.4	134	0.0634877
Nevada 2	Koepnick	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	14	0.9096687
Nevada 3	Oceguera	Heck	9	0	0	5	5	2.9	67	0.6510764
Nevada 4	Horsford	Tarkkanian	9	-2	0	-5	5	0.5	77	0.5266836
North Carolina 2	Wilkins	Ellmers	16	2	15	15	15	11	5	0.9295692
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	11	11	0	-5	-5	1.3	74	0.5690804
North Carolina 8	Kissell	Hudson	2	12	10	10	10	8.6	36	0.8751951
North Carolina 11	Rogers	Meadows	0	13	10	10	10	8.6	36	0.8751951
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	14	0.9096687
North Dakota 1	Gullleson	Cramer	7.5	10	10	10	15	9.75	20	0.9040961
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	1	5	5	5	5	4.1	58	0.7084542
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	15	10	7.8	44	0.8518036
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	-2	4	0	-5	5	0.6	76	0.5320098
Oklahoma 2	Wallace	Mullin	12	14	10	5	10	9	31	0.8858687
Oregon 1	Bonamici	Morgan	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313
Oregon 5	Schrader	Thompson	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141313
Pennsylvania 3	Eaton	Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	21	0.9006334
Pennsylvania 4	Perkinson	Perry	19.5	6	-15	-15	-15	-5.85	103	0.2167695
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Gerlach	24	1	10	10	15	9.6	21	0.9006334
Pennsylvania 7	Badey	Meehan	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	27	0.8909546
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	2	-1	5	10	5	4	59	0.7038435
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	-4	6	0	-5	-5	-1.2	83	0.436186
Pennsylvania 11	Stilp	Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139508
Pennsylvania 15	Daugherty	Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	26	0.8958755
Pennsylvania 18	Maggi	Murphy	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	10	0.9139508
Pennsylvania 17	Cartwright	Cummings	0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	110	0.1481964
South Carolina 7	Tinubu	Rice	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	27	0.8909546
South Dakota 1	Varilek	Noem	5	10	10	10	15	9.5	25	0.8982747
Tennessee 5	Cooper	Staats	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0993666
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline	Doherty	2	-13	-5	-5	-5	-5.4	99	0.2348683
Texas 10	Cadien	McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	8	0.9220565
Texas 14	Lampson	Weber	3	8	5	10	15	7.9	43	0.8548782
Texas 23	Gallego	Canseco	2.5	6	0	5	5	3.45	62	0.6779083
Texas 34	Vela	Bradshaw	0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	122	0.0993666
Texas 35	Doggett	Narvaiz	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141313
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	4	13	0	5	-5	3	66	0.6560164
Virginia 2	Hirschbiel	Rigell	13	5	10	10	5	7.3	47	0.8357808
Virginia 11	Connolly	Perkins	0	-2	-15	-15	-15	-9.4	120	0.1041245
Washington 1	Delbene	Kostar	1	-3	-5	-10	-10	-5.5	100	0.2307756
Washington 6	Kilmer	Driscoll	-15	-5	-10	-15	-15	-10.5	130	0.0799135
Washington 2	Larsen	Matthews	0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	117	0.1141313
Washington 3	Haugen	Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	33	0.880616
Washington 10	Heck	Muri	0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	126	0.0903313
West Virginia 1	Thorn	McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	7	0.9258855
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Snuffer	-28	6	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	114	0.1248049
Wisconsin 3	Kind	Boland	0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	125	0.0947696
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	6	0	5	5	10	4.6	56	0.7309901
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	10	10	10	6.4	52	0.8042166