Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (Final Projections)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote Projection: Obama 277; Republican 261 (R +88), Obama at 51.5% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 196; Projection: Republicans 240; Democrats 198;

Popular Vote Projection: 48.9% Romney – 48.8% Obama – 2.3% other candidates (See Yesterday’s Post)

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 303; Republican 235 (Romney is behind narrowly in NH, VA, and CO in the polls, but I think he will win those states based on early voting, independent vote, and or Republican population)

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 238; Democrats 200