Monday, November 19, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (Actual)

Time to see how the model held up.

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote Projection: Obama 277; Romney 261 (R +88), Obama at 51.5% of winning the election.

Actual: Obama 323; Romney 206 (R +33)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Actual: Republicans 30; Democrats 18 (Including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

Actual: Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 196; Projection: Republicans 240; Democrats 198;

Actual: Democrats 201; Republicans 234

Popular Vote Projection: 48.9% Romney – 48.8% Obama – 2.3% other candidates

Actual: Romney 48%; Obama 51%

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 303; Republican 235

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 238; Democrats 200

Races Highlighted below where the incorrectly picked races and results. The model picked one Presidential state wrong (Florida), one governor race (Montana), 2 Senate Races wrong (Montana and Indiana), and 14 House races wrong. What was disappointing about the House projections is that 9 of those races had near a 2 to 1 probability of going the other way. It may be time to tweak the House model.

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

19

10

0.8106639

5.674647377

Alaska

3

25

6

0.8766392

0.876639245

Arizona

11

7.5

23

0.6358939

5.723045483

Arkansas

6

27

4

0.8945359

3.578143647

California

55

-14

42

0.258274

13.68852371

Colorado

9

0

-1.5

27

0.4722954

3.306068041

Connecticut

7

-10.8

38

0.3083943

1.541971475

Delaware

3

-20

44

0.1770465

0.177046493

DC

3

-75

51

0.0002554

0.000255381

Florida

0

29

1.5

25

0.5277

14.2480233

Georgia

16

12.3

17

0.7156299

10.01881868

Hawaii

4

-28

49

0.0972552

0.19451036

Idaho

4

38

3

0.9608546

1.921709279

Illinois

20

-15

43

0.2435246

4.383443596

Indiana

11

9.5

20

0.670094

6.030846004

Iowa

6

-2.4

29

0.4557283

1.822913069

Kansas

6

20

8

0.8229535

3.29181403

Kentucky

8

15

16

0.7564754

4.538852135

Louisiana

8

18

11

0.7978628

4.787176513

Massachusetts

11

-20

44

0.1770465

1.593418433

Maine

4

-11.5

39

0.2970719

0.594143865

Maryland

10

-20.7

46

0.1687509

1.350006802

Michigan

16

-3.8

32

0.4301198

6.021677608

Minnesota

10

-5.2

35

0.4048021

3.238416835

Mississippi

6

20

8

0.8229535

3.29181403

Missouri

10

11.6

19

0.7045299

5.636239281

Montana

3

9

21

0.6616629

0.661662902

Nebraska

5

16

14

0.7707574

2.312272273

Nevada

6

-2.8

30

0.448388

1.793551984

New Hampshire

4

0

-2

28

0.4630837

0.926167363

New Jersey

14

-11.8

40

0.2922784

3.507340582

New Mexico

5

-9.3

37

0.3332684

0.999805137

New York

29

-26.4

48

0.1106239

2.98684515

North Carolina

0

15

3

24

0.5552757

7.218583888

North Dakota

3

17.7

12

0.7939237

0.793923676

Ohio

18

-3

31

0.4447243

7.115589061

Oklahoma

7

27

4

0.8945359

4.472679559

Oregon

7

-6

36

0.3905047

1.952523531

Pennsylvania

20

-3.8

32

0.4301198

7.742156925

Rhode Island

4

-23

47

0.1432838

0.286567698

South Carolina

9

12

18

0.7108972

4.976280374

South Dakota

3

8.5

22

0.65315

0.653149961

Tennessee

11

25

6

0.8766392

7.889753205

Texas

38

17

13

0.7845573

28.24406378

Utah

6

52

1

0.9920099

3.968039526

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0432316

0.04323159

Virginia

13

0

-0.3

26

0.4944548

5.439002847

Washington

12

-13.6

41

0.2643008

2.643008306

West Virginia

5

16

14

0.7707574

2.312272273

Wisconsin

10

-4.2

34

0.422852

3.382815999

Wyoming

3

40

2

0.9680845

0.968084534

0

Total

303

235

21.5824

0.5333475

0.484642613

0.43841526

0.486

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

Cragg

0

6

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

11

4

0.6798829

1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.3

9

0.3308274

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

1.5

5

0.52541

Gain

1

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Lamontagne

-3.6

8

0.4392157

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

15.7

3

0.7476351

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

28

2

0.8829124

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

53

1

0.9878351

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

11

0.0742848

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-1

7

0.4830547

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

-21

10

0.1861283

-1

0

23.5359

0.5306532

2

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

4

7

0.5793408

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-20.6

26

0.1512545

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-5

17

0.4011935

-1

Delaware

Carper

Wade

-25

27

0.1054133

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6.9

20

0.3649128

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-17

23

0.1974177

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

9

0.51996

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-3.5

15

0.4304685

Gain

-1

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

12

0.5

Gain

0

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-13.2

22

0.2544074

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-31

30

0.0603782

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

20

4

0.8415955

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-4.5

18

0.4108989

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

-28.5

28

0.0768653

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

0.4

10

0.50799

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

17

5

0.8025823

Gain

1

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

3.5

4.8

0.5695315

1

New York

Gillibrand

Long

-41.4

33

0.0191259

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-17.4

24

0.1919039

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-10.7

21

0.2961332

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5.7

6

0.6122911

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-5.3

18

0.3953989

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-5.4

19

0.3934725

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

Hinkley

-26

28

0.0965697

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

38

2

0.9714124

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

22

3

0.8645822

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

41

1

0.9799213

1

Vermont

Sanders

MacGovern

-40

32

0.0226384

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-1.7

13

0.4660957

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-19

25

0.170806

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

-39

31

0.0254678

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

-2.2

14

0.4561595

-1

Wyoming

Chesnut

Barrasso

1

9

0.5199595

1

0

19.9793

0.4017013

1

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

25

7

15

15

15

12.9

2

0.9579113

1

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

1

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

29

8

15

15

15

13.5

1

0.9646398

Gain

1

-1

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

1

3

0

-5

-5

-1.3

84

0.4309196

Gain

-1

1

Arizona 5

Morgan

Salmon

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

1

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-6.1

3

-10

-10

-10

-6.01

104

0.2105341

-1

Arizona 9

Sinema

Parker

-2.5

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.25

92

0.331751

Gain

-1

-1

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-15

-10

-8.7

115

0.1220733

-1

California 7

Bera

Lungren

5

3

0

-5

5

1.1

75

0.55854

1

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-5

-4.3

97

0.2824263

-1

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

4.5

5

0

-5

10

2.45

73

0.6285388

1

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1041245

-1

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

4

3

10

10

10

7

48

0.8256471

Gain

1

1

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

3

0.9541776

1

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

1

-3

-5

-5

5

-1.5

85

0.4204245

-1

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

89

0.3638951

Gain

-1

-1

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

36

0.8751951

1

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

3

3

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.65108

1

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

94

0.2961565

Gain

-1

1

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

107

0.1743529

Gain

-1

-1

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

1.5

-1

0

-5

5

-0.05

78

0.4973297

Gain

-1

1

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

11

4

5

5

5

4.9

55

0.7440789

1

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9139508

1

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

3

1

0

5

5

2.5

73

0.6310666

1

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-5

2.5

-5

-5

-5

-3

91

0.3439836

-1

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

-1

4

5

10

10

5.7

53

0.7772889

1

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

-13

-3

0

-15

-15

-7.9

111

0.1451218

Gain

-1

-1

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

3

4

-5

-5

-5

-1.9

86

0.3996101

Gain

-1

-1

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

6

7

5

5

15

7

48

0.8256471

1

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

9

1

15

15

15

10.1

13

0.9118292

1

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

17

5

10

10

10

8.7

35

0.8779267

1

Florida 18

Murphy

West

4

1

0

5

5

2.6

71

0.6361

1

Florida 7

Kendall

Mica

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

19

0.9052304

1

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

-6

-5

-10

-5

-5

-5.6

101

0.2267231

Gain

-1

1

Georgia 12

Barrow

Anderson

-4

10

0

5

5

3.6

61

0.68508

Gain

1

-1

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

-12

-5

-10

-5

-10

-7.2

109

0.1675538

Gain

-1

1

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

5

-8

-5

-5

5

-2.1

88

0.389305

Gain

-1

1

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

-1

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.3

97

0.2824263

Gain

-1

1

Illinois 12

Enyart

Plummer

-3

-2

0

5

-5

-0.7

80

0.4626697

-1

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

-2

-1

0

-5

5

-0.4

79

0.47865

Gain

-1

1

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

3

-6

0

-5

-5

-2.9

90

0.3489236

Gain

-1

1

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

10

10

10

7.4

45

0.8390721

Gain

1

-1

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

54

0.7651317

1

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

112

0.1420905

-1

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-10

-5

-15

-6.8

106

0.1813247

-1

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.6658163

Gain

1

-1

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

4

4

5

5

5

4.2

57

0.7130311

1

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

0

-5

-5

-0.7

80

0.46267

-1

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-15.5

-3

-15

-15

-15

-11.2

133

0.0677617

-1

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

5

0.9295692

1

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-1

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.5

105

0.1921047

Gain

-1

1

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

-1

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

7.5

-7

5

5

10

3.4

63

0.67309

Gain

1

-1

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

1

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

-6

3

0

-5

-5

-2

87

0.39445

Gain

-1

1

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

9

6

10

5

15

8.1

40

0.8608977

1

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

27

0.8909546

1

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

8

1

10

10

10

7

48

0.8256471

1

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

116

0.119384

-1

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

8

1

10

10

15

8

42

0.8579095

1

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

31

0.8858687

1

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

5.5

8

5

10

15

8.15

39

0.8623757

1

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

-2

-3

0

-5

5

-0.8

82

0.4573558

Gain

-1

1

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

112

0.1420905

-1

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

7

7

10

10

10

8.1

40

0.8608977

1

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

13.5

2

5

10

10

6.75

51

0.8169054

1

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

9

0.9180792

1

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

131

0.0779435

-1

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

1

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

132

0.0704308

-1

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

33

0.880616

1

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

-1

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

-6

0

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

93

0.3149248

-1

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0993666

-1

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

14

5

5

10

10

7.4

45

0.8390721

1

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

5

2

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.65108

1

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

9

-1

0

5

5

2.7

70

0.6411199

1

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

1

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-8

1

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

101

0.2267231

-1

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

-3

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.1

95

0.2915458

Gain

-1

1

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

-11

-5

-10

-5

-10

-7.1

108

0.1709317

1

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

5

3

15

10

15

9.1

30

0.8884323

1

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

3

7

0

5

5

3.7

60

0.6898149

Gain

1

-1

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

9

6

15

15

15

11.1

4

0.9313574

1

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

2

0

5

5

5

3.2

64

0.66582

1

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

-6

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

96

0.2869689

Gain

-1

1

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

-14

-5

-15

-15

-15

-11.4

134

0.0634877

-1

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

1

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

9

0

0

5

5

2.9

67

0.6510764

1

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

9

-2

0

-5

5

0.5

77

0.5266836

-1

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

5

0.9295692

1

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

11

11

0

-5

-5

1.3

74

0.56908

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

2

12

10

10

10

8.6

36

0.8751951

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

36

0.8751951

Gain

1

-1

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

14

0.9096687

Gain

1

-1

North Dakota 1

Gullleson

Cramer

7.5

10

10

10

15

9.75

20

0.9040961

1

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

1

5

5

5

5

4.1

58

0.7084542

1

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

15

10

7.8

44

0.8518036

1

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

-5

5

0.6

76

0.5320098

1

Oklahoma 2

Wallace

Mullin

12

14

10

5

10

9

31

0.8858687

Gain

1

-1

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

-1

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1141313

-1

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

1

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

19.5

6

-15

-15

-15

-5.85

103

0.2167695

-1

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

24

1

10

10

15

9.6

21

0.9006334

1

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

27

0.8909546

1

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

2

-1

5

10

5

4

59

0.7038435

1

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-4

6

0

-5

-5

-1.2

83

0.43619

-1

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9139508

1

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

26

0.8958755

1

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

10

0.9139508

1

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

110

0.1481964

-1

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

27

0.8909546

1

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

5

10

10

10

15

9.5

25

0.8982747

1

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0993666

-1

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

2

-13

-5

-5

-5

-5.4

99

0.2348683

-1

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

8

0.9220565

1

Texas 14

Lampson

Weber

3

8

5

10

15

7.9

43

0.8548782

1

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

2.5

6

0

5

5

3.5

62

0.67791

1

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

122

0.0993666

1

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1141313

-1

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

4

13

0

5

-5

3

66

0.65602

Gain

1

-1

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

13

5

10

10

5

7.3

47

0.8357808

-1

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

120

0.1041245

-1

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

1

-3

-5

-10

-10

-5.5

100

0.2307756

-1

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

-15

-5

-10

-15

-15

-10.5

130

0.0799135

-1

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

117

0.1141313

-1

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

33

0.880616

1

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

126

0.0903313

-1

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

7

0.9258855

1

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

114

0.1248049

-1

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

125

0.0947696

-1

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

6

0

5

5

10

4.6

56

0.7309901

1

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

10

10

10

6.4

52

0.8042166

1

2 comments:

  1. I think you did pretty well considering that human nature is a non-constant that can never quite be statistically measured (in other words, who could possibly have known that the American people would be THIS stupid?).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, CW, but it is hard modeling things when they do not look good (yes, because people are being stupid). I am proud of the fact that this model correctly predicted Obama would win by 3%. There is no way he would win all those battleground states and just squeak by. This disproved the national polls that said the race was within a point.

      Delete