Friday, April 13, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (4/13/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 233; Democrats 202;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Arkansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

California

55

0

2

0.5

26.5

Colorado

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Connecticut

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

DC

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Florida

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

Georgia

16

0

2

0.5

7

Hawaii

4

0

2

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

2

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

2

0.5

9

Indiana

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Iowa

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

2

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

2

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Maine

4

0

2

0.5

1

Maryland

10

0

2

0.5

4

Michigan

16

0

2

0.5

7

Minnesota

10

0

2

0.5

4

Mississippi

6

0

2

0.5

2

Missouri

10

0

2

0.5

4

Montana

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Nebraska

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Nevada

6

0

2

0.5

2

New Hampshire

4

0

2

0.5

1

New Jersey

14

0

2

0.5

6

New Mexico

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

New York

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

North Carolina

15

0

2

0.5

6.5

North Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

0

2

0.5

8

Oklahoma

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Oregon

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Pennsylvania

20

0

2

0.5

9

Rhode Island

4

0

2

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Texas

38

0

2

0.5

18

Utah

6

0

2

0.5

2

Vermont

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Virginia

13

0

2

0.5

5.5

Washington

12

0

2

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

0

2

0.5

4

Wyoming

3

6

1

1

1

0

Total

329

206

0.84853

0.51

0.501149425

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

4

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

1

0.9775018

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

4

0.5

-1

Louisiana

Jindal

0

4

0.5

1

Mississippi

Barbour

0

4

0.5

1

Missouri

Nixon

-18

14

0.002754

-1

Montana

Schweitzer

0

4

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Lynch

0

4

0.5

-1

North Carolina

Bowles

McCrory

4

3

0.7313257

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

4

0.5

1

Utah

Herbert

0

4

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

4

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

2

0.8343511

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

0

4

0.5

-1

0

6.4848

0.5389952

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

11

3

0.8787513

1

California

Feinstein

0

10

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

25

0.3629329

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-3.5

26

0.3549909

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

32

0.016792

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Lugar

21

1

0.9871688

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

1

7

0.5423086

1

Maine

Pingree

Summers

-3

24

0.3749563

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-15

30

0.0554934

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

10

0.5

-1

Mississippi

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

1

7.5

0.5423086

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2

5

0.5841427

Gain

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Bruning

16.5

2

0.9602119

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

3

5

0.6250437

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-30

33

0.0007174

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-13.5

29

0.0757296

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-5

27

0.2976201

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

10

0.5

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-7.8

28

0.2036195

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

0

10

0.5

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.2

23

0.491523

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

30

0.0554934

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

5

4

0.7023799

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

7

0.5423086

1

0

9.41163

0.4592271

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

22

0.8886969

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

8

0.9267404

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

10

5

5

5.6

53

0.7919153

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-10

-2.4

87

0.3637455

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

5

8

27

0.8772908

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

81

0.4768435

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

85

0.3857599

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-15

-6.2

107

0.1840066

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

75

0.5918514

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-15

-5.4

97

0.2165066

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

62

0.7193039

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

112

0.1413142

California 21

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

66

0.6994076

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9663332

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-15

-6.6

108

0.1689612

California 26

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.4081486

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

87

0.3637455

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

35

0.8650889

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-15

-5.6

99

0.2080847

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-15

-7

110

0.15473

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

77

0.5462351

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

10

15

6.8

43

0.8382564

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

6

0.9306935

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

69

0.6788981

Connecticut 5

Murphy

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

112

0.1413142

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

33

0.8712902

Florida 9

0

-3

-5

-10

-15

-6.6

108

0.1689612

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

5

5

15

5.8

50

0.8001406

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

22

0.8886969

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

25

0.8830924

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

10

15

8

27

0.8772908

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

15

4.2

61

0.7290073

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

21

0.8993232

Florida 22

0

-5

0

-5

-15

-5

95

0.233929

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

10

6

48

0.8081672

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-5

-6

104

0.1918328

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-10

-5.6

99

0.2080847

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

90

0.3211019

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4194615

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

72

0.6578279

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

93

0.2709927

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

55

0.7834934

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

5

6.4

45

0.8236176

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

120

0.1227092

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

116

0.1287098

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

80

0.5115832

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

65

0.7094354

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

0

9

-5

-10

-5

-2.2

86

0.3747017

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

114

0.1349111

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9448817

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-5

0

-5

-2.4

87

0.3637455

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

131

0.0732596

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-10

-10

-15

-8.4

124

0.1113031

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

5

8

27

0.8772908

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

5

15

5.6

53

0.7919153

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9091897

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8520797

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

25

0.8830924

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

116

0.1287098

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8520797

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

10

15

8

27

0.8772908

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

5

0.9344801

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

78

0.5231565

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-10

-10

-15

-6

104

0.1918328

Montana 1

Rehberg

0

7

10

5

5

5.4

55

0.7834934

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

59

0.7748777

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

14

0.9138453

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0618956

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

11

0.91832

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0551183

New York 2

King

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

43

0.8382564

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

127

0.0956499

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-5

-5

-15

-5

95

0.233929

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

114

0.1349111

New York 11

Grimm

0

5

5

5

15

6

48

0.8081672

New York 18

Hayworth

0

2

0

10

15

5.4

55

0.7834934

New York 19

Gibson

0

-1

0

10

15

4.8

60

0.7570766

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

35

0.8650889

New York 21

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-15

-4.8

94

0.2429234

New York 24

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-15

-5.8

102

0.1998594

New York 25

Slaughter

0

5

-5

-5

-15

-4

92

0.2806961

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

35

0.8650889

New York 27

Hochul

0

7

5

5

15

6.4

45

0.8236176

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9091897

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

0

10

5

5

4

62

0.7193039

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

78

0.5231565

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

120

0.1227092

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

8

0.9267404

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

76

0.557721

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-5

-5.4

97

0.2165066

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

14

0.9138453

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

0

5

3.2

68

0.6788981

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

45

0.8236176

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

10

5

7.6

35

0.8650889

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

10

10

8

27

0.8772908

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

20

0.9043501

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

62

0.7193039

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

5

5.8

50

0.8001406

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

0

5

1.8

74

0.6030882

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

50

0.8001406

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

131

0.0732596

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

110

0.15473

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

11

0.91832

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

116

0.1287098

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8520797

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8520797

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

72

0.6578279

Pennsylvania 12

Altmire

0

6

-5

-5

-5

-1.8

84

0.3969118

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9091897

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

10

15

15

8.4

22

0.8886969

Pennsylvania 16

Pitts

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

6

0.9306935

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

116

0.1287098

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.9091897

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9448817

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

129

0.08168

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-15

-5.6

99

0.2080847

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

4

0.9381044

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

11

0.91832

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

10

3.2

68

0.6788981

Texas 34

0

-3

-10

-15

-15

-8.6

126

0.1058937

Texas 35

0

0

-15

0

-15

-6

104

0.1918328

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

66

0.6994076

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

10

15

8

27

0.8772908

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

124

0.1113031

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

91

0.3005924

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

127

0.0956499

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-10

-15

-8

120

0.1227092

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

10

15

7.8

33

0.8712902

Washington 10

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

120

0.1227092

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

10

15

9.8

10

0.9226172

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

102

0.1998594

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

130

0.0773828

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

71

0.6684297

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

5

15

5.4

55

0.7834934

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