Thursday, July 3, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (7/4/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

7.2

12

0.7011611

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

19.5

5

0.9235415

1

Rep Gain

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-4.5

29

0.3707607

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

2.7

16

0.5784397

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

18

6

0.9064751

1

Rep Gain

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-9

31

0.2547301

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

-9

31

0.2547301

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

-24

35

0.0392766

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-33

36

0.0077854

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-9.5

33

0.2431119

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

1

18

0.5292154

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

23

4

0.9540872

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

10

9

0.7682135

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-2.2

27

0.4359464

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

3.9

15

0.6125076

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

14

7

0.8475935

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

10

9

0.7682135

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-6

30

0.3300462

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-4

28

0.3846883

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

6

14

0.6699538

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7

13

0.6960535

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

27

2

0.976094

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

1

18

0.5292154

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

1

18

0.5292154

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

9.5

11

0.7568881

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-21.5

34

0.0575246

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

1

18

0.5292154

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

27

2

0.976094

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

1

0.9860585

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

12.6

8

0.8221396

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconis

Walker

2

17

0.5582742

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Mead

1

18

0.5292154

1

Rep Hold

1

0

13.643

0.5664373

8

0

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

2

0.9991471

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

-6

31

0.3532864

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

-1

26

0.4749852

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Purdue

1.5

14

0.5374914

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Hanabusa

-4

29

0.4009166

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

55

1

0.9997207

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-5.6

30

0.3626571

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-11.5

34

0.2352844

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

12

9

0.7742528

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

1.5

28

0.5374914

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

25

2

0.9416289

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Taylor

Roberts

10

10

0.734814

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

17

6

0.8569339

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-1.6

26

0.4600173

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

3

13

0.5746524

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-17

36

0.1430661

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Langford

1

16

0.5250148

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Inhofe

1

16

0.5250148

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

18

5

0.8706331

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

20

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

3

0.9416289

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

11

10

0.7549601

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

1

16

0.5250148

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

1

16

0.5250148

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-16

35

0.1577131

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-10

32

0.265186

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

10

11

0.734814

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-10

32

0.265186

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

15

7

0.8266879

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14.5

8

0.8185322

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-3

28

0.4253476

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

-0.8

25

0.4799835

-1

Dem Hold

-1

0

15.9378

0.5697944

2

4

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

25

0.7779448

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

2

0.951907

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

39

0.4867286

Arizona 2

Barber

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

42

0.4734719

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

59

0.2636346

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

74

0.0862557

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.3696704

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0629414

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

18

0.8845055

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0589306

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

34

0.6673271

California 25

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

15

0.8969496

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

43

0.4470609

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

59

0.2636346

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

63

0.2528805

California 36

Ruiz

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-10

-2.8

53

0.3206733

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

7

-2

0

0

5

1.3

37

0.5856122

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

49

0.4208827

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

68

0.1030504

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

26

0.7576382

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4470609

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

10

0.9137443

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

5

0.9370586

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

49

0.4079162

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0448573

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

39

0.4867286

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.1030504

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2746173

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

75

0.0762547

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

54

0.3088581

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

33

0.6911419

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-10

-10

-6.4

67

0.1435003

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

5

10

10

6.2

21

0.8488355

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

71

0.09161

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4339356

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.90839

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

39

0.4867286

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-5

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.9

64

0.2074847

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-4

-5

-10

-10

-5.8

65

0.1672958

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.714179

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

27

0.7471195

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9284025

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

29

0.7253827

Michigan 11

Bentivolio

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

13

0.9027933

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.0972067

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

17

0.890855

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.2972376

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-5

-10

-3.8

59

0.2636346

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

9

0.918861

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

38

0.5132714

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

19

0.8710292

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3326729

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3326729

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

66

0.1590962

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

35

0.6177031

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

46

0.4339356

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

71

0.09161

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

22

0.8242371

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

15

0.8969496

Nebraska 2

Sullivan

Terry

0

4

15

5

15

7.8

13

0.9027933

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4470609

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

57

0.2746173

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.90839

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

2

0.951907

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

0

5

10

5

4

27

0.7471195

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

59

0.2636346

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

2

0.951907

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9582007

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

8

0.9237453

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

19

0.8710292

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

71

0.09161

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

13

2

5

5

5

4.7

24

0.7828654

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

32

0.7027624

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

56

0.285821

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

10

9.2

5

0.9370586

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.714179

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0715975

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

23

0.8065049

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

5

-5

1.6

36

0.6049501

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 233; Democrats 205

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 49; Democrats 51 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

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