Thursday, July 24, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (7/25/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

7.2

11

0.697458

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

19.5

5

0.9193164

1

Rep Gain

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-1.5

26

0.457105

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

2.7

15

0.5768783

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-15.5

33

0.1328095

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-7.7

30

0.2901272

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

-9

31

0.2590169

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

-25

35

0.0362872

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-35

36

0.0059737

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-9.5

32

0.2475281

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

1

17

0.5286274

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

23

4

0.9507182

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

10

9

0.7636827

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-3.6

27

0.3979906

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

1.7

16

0.5485876

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

14

6

0.8426668

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

11.8

8

0.8016347

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-6

29

0.3332635

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-4

28

0.3869491

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

3.3

14

0.5936738

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7

12

0.6924262

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

27

2

0.9737577

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

1

17

0.5286274

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

5

13

0.6402397

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

9.5

10

0.7524719

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-21.5

34

0.0612787

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

1

17

0.5286274

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

27

2

0.9737577

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

1

0.9844033

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

12.6

7

0.8172489

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

0.7

21

0.5200479

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Mead

1

17

0.5286274

1

Rep Hold

1

0

13.9237

0.5449815

6

-1

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

2

0.9983532

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

-6

31

0.3621675

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

2.8

16

0.5653627

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

-4

28

0.4070601

-1

Dem Gain

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Hanabusa

-4

28

0.4070601

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

55

1

0.9993871

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-5.8

30

0.3665836

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-11.5

34

0.2495352

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13

11

0.7776024

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

1.5

31

0.5351284

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

25

3

0.9291464

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Taylor

Roberts

10

13

0.7216618

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

17

8

0.8411596

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-1

25

0.4765643

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

1

18

0.5234357

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-17

35

0.1588404

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Langford

1

18

0.5234357

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

31

3

0.9657827

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

13

11

0.7776024

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

21

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

4

0.9291464

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

11

13

0.7410429

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

22

6

0.9020166

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

19

7

0.8679584

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-20

36

0.1198832

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-10

32

0.2783382

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

10

14

0.7216618

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-10.5

33

0.2685598

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

15

9

0.8110246

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14.5

10

0.8029731

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-2.6

27

0.4392685

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

0.7

20

0.5164098

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

17.013

0.5977425

4

5

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

25

0.7783828

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

2

0.9522262

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

39

0.4867031

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

47

0.4207325

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

58

0.2632374

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

74

0.0858436

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.3694288

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0625781

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

18

0.8849535

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0585781

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

34

0.6676294

California 25

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

15

0.8973853

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

43

0.4469596

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

58

0.2632374

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

62

0.2524713

California 36

Ruiz

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-10

-2.8

53

0.3203526

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

7

-2

0

0

5

1.3

37

0.5857743

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

48

0.4207325

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

68

0.1026147

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

26

0.7580581

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4469596

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

10

0.9141564

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

5

0.9374219

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

49

0.4077423

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0445495

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

39

0.4867031

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.1026147

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

3

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.3

56

0.2911409

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

75

0.0758609

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

54

0.30852

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

33

0.69148

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-10

-10

-6.4

67

0.1430372

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

5

10

10

6.2

21

0.8493001

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

71

0.0911894

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

45

0.4338096

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9088106

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

39

0.4867031

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-5

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.9

65

0.2070362

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

5

-4

-5

-10

-5

-4.3

63

0.2367679

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.7145488

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

27

0.7475287

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9287865

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

5

3.6

29

0.7257668

Michigan 11

Trott

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

13

0.9032217

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.0967783

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

17

0.8912972

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

55

0.296883

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-5

-10

-3.8

58

0.2632374

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

9

0.9192642

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

38

0.5132969

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

19

0.8714865

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3323706

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

51

0.3323706

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

66

0.1586312

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

35

0.6179228

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

45

0.4338096

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

71

0.0911894

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

22

0.8247

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

15

0.8973853

Nebraska 2

Sullivan

Terry

0

4

15

5

15

7.8

13

0.9032217

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

4

1

0

0

-5

-0.4

42

0.4734209

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Lambert

-8

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

64

0.2316553

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

11

0.9088106

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

2

0.9522262

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

0

5

10

5

4

27

0.7475287

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

58

0.2632374

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

2

0.9522262

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9584971

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

8

0.9241391

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

19

0.8714865

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

71

0.0911894

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

13

2

5

5

5

4.7

24

0.7833072

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

32

0.703117

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

57

0.2854512

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

10

9.2

5

0.9374219

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

30

0.7145488

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0712135

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

23

0.8069613

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

5

-5

1.6

36

0.6051473

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

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