2014 Election Polls and Models (7/31/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability	Gain	Incumbent
Arkansas	Ross	Hutchinson	5	18	0.6247696	1	Rep Gain	-1
California	Brown	Kashkari	19.5	6	0.8925723	1	Rep Gain	-1
Connecticut	Malloy	Foley	7	15	0.6719285	1	Rep Gain	-1
Colorado	Hickenlooper	Beauprez	-1.2	25	0.4695792	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Hawaii	Abercrombie	Aiona	0	24	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Illinois	Quinn	Rauner	3	20	0.5756663	1	Rep Gain	-1
Maryland	Brown	Hogan	-14	31	0.1866016	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Massacusetts	Coakley	Baker	-10	29	0.2623675	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Minnesota	Dayton	Seifert	-13	30	0.2041517	-1	Dem Hold	-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Havenstein	-20	33	0.1016639	-1	Dem Hold	-1
New York	Cuomo	Astorino	-31	36	0.0243164	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Oregon	Kitzhaber	Richardson	-9.5	28	0.2728352	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Rhode Island	Taveras	Block	-25	34	0.0558995	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Vermont	Shumlin	Milne	-25	34	0.0558995	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Arizona	DuVal	Jones	11	11	0.7579333	1	Rep Hold	1
Alabama	Griffith	Bentley	25	3	0.9441005	1	Rep Hold	1
Alaska	Mallott	Parnell	10	12	0.7376325	1	Rep Hold	1
Florida	Crist	Scott	-2	26	0.449386	-1	Dem Gain	1
Georgia	Carter	Deal	0.4	23	0.510149	1	Rep Hold	1
Idaho	Balukoff	Otter	18	7	0.8738777	1	Rep Hold	1
Iowa	Hatch	Branstad	11.5	10	0.7677549	1	Rep Hold	1
Kansas	Davis	Brownback	2	21	0.550614	1	Rep Hold	1
Maine	Michaud	LePage	-4	27	0.3995834	-1	Dem Gain	1
Michigan	Schauer	Snyder	3.2	19	0.5806437	1	Rep Hold	1
Nebraska	Hassebrook	Ricketts	7.5	14	0.683336	1	Rep Hold	1
Nevada	Goodman	Sandoval	25	3	0.9441005	1	Rep Hold	1
New Mexico	King	Martinez	7	15	0.6719285	1	Rep Hold	1
Oklahoma	Dorman	Fallin	7	15	0.6719285	1	Rep Hold	1
Ohio	Fitzgerald	Kasich	8.2	13	0.6990159	1	Rep Hold	1
Pennsylvania	Wolf	Corbett	-18	32	0.1261223	-1	Dem Gain	1
South Carolina	Sheheen	Haley	13	9	0.7958483	1	Rep Hold	1
South Dakota	Wismer	Daugarrd	33	1	0.982092	1	Rep Hold	1
Tennessee	McKamey	Haslam	25	3	0.9441005	1	Rep Hold	1
Texas	Davis	Abbott	13.7	8	0.8082341	1	Rep Hold	1
Wisconsin	Burke	Walker	0.7	22	0.5177568	1	Rep Hold	1
Wyoming	Gosar	Mead	28	2	0.962542	1	Rep Hold	1
			0
			15.7217		0.5614903	10	1	8
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability	Gain	Incumbent
Alabama	Unopposed	Sessions	50	1	0.9965561	1	Rep Hold	1
Alaska	Begich	Treadwell	-2	26	0.4569626	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Arkansas	Pryor	Cotton	3.6	17	0.5771312	1	Rep Gain	-1
Delaware	Coons		0	22	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Georgia	Nunn	Perdue	3.2	18	0.5686515	1	Rep Hold	1
Hawaii	Hanabusa	Cavasso	-30	36	0.0524733	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Illinois	Durbin	Oberweis	-8	28	0.3327417	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Massachusetts	Markey	Herr	-26	35	0.0799877	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Maine	Bellows	Collins	45	2	0.9924921	1	Rep Hold	1
Michigan	Peters	Land	-4.6	27	0.4018335	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Minnesota	Franken	McFadden	-12.5	32	0.2496617	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Mississippi	Childers	Cochran	13.5	14	0.7671824	1	Rep Hold	1
Kentucky	Grimes	McConnell	2.5	36	0.5537379	1	Rep Hold	1
Idaho	Mitchell	Risch	28	2	0.934891	1	Rep Hold	1
Kansas	Taylor	Roberts	11	14	0.7239072	1	Rep Hold	1
Nebraska	Domina	Sasse	20	7	0.8601265	1	Rep Hold	1
Colorado	Udall	Gardner	-1.5	23	0.4676945	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Louisiana	Landrieu	Cassidy	1	20	0.5215501	1	Rep Gain	-1
New Jersey	Booker	Bell	-12	31	0.2583203	-1	Dem Hold	-1
New Mexico	Udall	Weh	-17	34	0.179112	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Oklahoma	Johnson	Langford	23	6	0.8930699	1	Rep Hold	1
Oklahoma	Silverstein	Inhofe	27	4	0.9277447	1	Rep Hold	1
Montana	Walsh	Daines	14	12	0.7753616	1	Rep Gain	-1
Rhode Island	Reed		0	22	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Tennessee	Adams	Alexander	17	8	0.820888	1	Rep Hold	1
Texas	Alameel	Cornyn	14	12	0.7753616	1	Rep Hold	1
South Carolina	Dickerson	Scott	16	9	0.8064011	1	Rep Hold	1
South Carolina	Hutto	Graham	16	9	0.8064011	1	Rep Hold	1
Virginia	Warner	Gillespie	-16	33	0.1935989	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Oregon	Merkley	Wehby	-11	30	0.2760928	-1	Dem Hold	-1
West Virginia	Tennant	Capito	9.3	16	0.6923817	1	Rep Gain	-1
New Hampshire	Shaheen	Brown	-10.4	29	0.287037	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Wyoming	Hardy	Enzi	27	4	0.9277447	1	Rep Hold	1
South Dakota	Weiland	Rounds	14.5	11	0.7833754	1	Rep Gain	-1
North Carolina	Hagan	Tillis	-1.8	25	0.4612521	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Iowa	Braley	Ernst	0.8	21	0.5172431	1	Rep Gain	-1
			0
			18.5033		0.5805181	6	6	-6
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 2	Hays	Hill	0	8	5	5	5	4.6	26	0.7754594
Arkansas 4			0	15	10	10	15	10	2	0.9500706
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick		0	4	0	0	-5	-0.2	39	0.4868729
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-8	3	0	0	-5	-1.2	46	0.421732
Arizona 9	Sinema		0	1	-5	-5	-10	-3.8	56	0.2658856
California 3	Garamendi	Logue	0	-1	-10	-15	-15	-8.2	74	0.0886137
California 7	Bera	Ose	0	0	0	-5	-5	-2	49	0.3710372
California 9	McNerney	Amador	0	-6	-10	-15	-15	-9.2	77	0.0650262
California 10	Eggman	Denham	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	18	0.8819493
California 16	Costa		0	-7	-10	-15	-15	-9.4	78	0.060955
California 21	Renteria	Valadao	0	-2	5	5	5	2.6	34	0.6656162
California 25			0	3	10	15	10	7.6	15	0.8944614
California 24	Capps		0	-4	-10	-5	15	-0.8	42	0.4476333
California 26	Brownley	Gorell	0	-4	-5	-5	-10	-4.8	62	0.2148052
California 31	Aguilar	Chabot	0	-5	-5	-5	-10	-5	64	0.2053196
California 36	Ruiz	Nestande	0	1	0	-5	-10	-2.8	51	0.3224887
California 52	Peters	DiMaio	7	-2	0	0	5	1.3	37	0.5846953
Colorado 6	Romanoff	Coffman	0	-1	0	0	-5	-1.2	47	0.421732
Connecticut 5	Esty		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	68	0.1055386
Florida 2	Graham	Southerland	0	6	5	5	5	4.2	27	0.7552569
Florida 26	Garcia		0	1	0	0	-5	-0.8	42	0.4476333
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	6	5	15	15	8.2	10	0.9113863
Florida 13		Jolly	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	5	0.9349738
Florida 18	Murphy		0	3	0	-5	-10	-2.4	50	0.3464476
Hawaii 2			0	-21	-10	-5	-15	-10.2	79	0.0466297
Georgia 12	Barrow	Allen	0	14	-5	-5	-10	-1.2	46	0.421732
Illinois 8	Duckworth		0	-8	-10	-5	-15	-7.6	68	0.1055386
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	3	-8	0	-5	-5	-3.3	52	0.2935554
Illinois 11	Foster		0	-8	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	75	0.0785104
Illinois 12	Enyart	Bost	0	0	-5	-5	-10	-4	59	0.2551999
Illinois 13	Callis	Davis	0	0	5	5	5	3	33	0.6892274
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-7	-5	-10	-10	-6.4	67	0.1461374
Indiana 2	Bock	Walorski	0	6	5	10	10	6.2	21	0.8461912
Iowa 1	Murphy	Blum	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	71	0.0940148
Iowa 3	Appel		0	0	0	0	-5	-1	44	0.4346476
Iowa 4	Mowrer	King	0	5	10	10	15	8	11	0.9059852
Kentucky 6		Barr	0	9	10	-5	-15	-0.2	39	0.4868729
Maine 2	Cain	Poliquin	-5	-2	-5	-5	-10	-4.9	63	0.210031
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	5	-4	-5	-10	-5	-4.3	61	0.2396026
Michigan 8			0	2	5	5	5	3.4	30	0.712084
Michigan 1	Cannon	Benishek	0	5	5	5	5	4	28	0.7448001
Michigan 3		Amash	0	4	10	15	15	8.8	7	0.9262018
Michigan 7	Byrnes	Walberg	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	29	0.7232065
Michigan 11		Trott	0	4	10	10	15	7.8	13	0.900345
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-10	-15	-15	-7.8	70	0.099655
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	2	10	10	15	7.4	17	0.8883307
Minnesota 8	Nolan		0	-1	-5	-5	-10	-4.2	60	0.2447431
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	6	-10	-5	-10	-3.8	56	0.2658856
Montana 1	Lewis	Zinke	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	9	0.9165529
New Jersey 3	Belgard	McArthur	0	1	0	5	-5	0.2	38	0.5131271
New Jersey 2	Hughes	LoBiondo	0	-1	10	10	15	6.8	19	0.8684227
New York 1	Bishop	Zeldin	0	2	-5	-5	-10	-3.6	54	0.2767935
New York 11	Recchia	Grimm	0	2	-5	-5	-10	-3.6	54	0.2767935
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	4	0	-5	-10	-15	-5.6	66	0.1783943
New York 19	Eldridge	Gibson	0	-1	5	0	5	1.8	35	0.6164601
New York 21	Woolf	Stefanik	0	0	0	0	-5	-1	44	0.4346476
New York 24	Maffei	Katko	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	71	0.0940148
New York 23	Robertson	Reed	0	3	15	5	5	5.6	22	0.8216057
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	8	0	15	15	7.6	15	0.8944614
Nebraska 2	Sullivan	Terry	0	4	15	5	15	7.8	13	0.900345
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	4	1	0	0	-5	-0.4	41	0.47376
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Lambert	-8	-3	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	65	0.1871115
New Mexico 2	Lara	Pearce	0	5	10	10	15	8	11	0.9059852
Nevada 2	Spees	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	2	0.9500706
Nevada 3	Bilbay	Heck	0	0	5	10	10	5	24	0.7946804
Nevada 4	Horsford	Hardy	0	-4	0	-10	-5	-3.8	56	0.2658856
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	10	10	15	15	10	2	0.9500706
North Carolina 7	Barfield	Rouzer	0	12	10	15	15	10.4	1	0.9564927
Ohio 6		Johnson	0	8	10	10	15	8.6	8	0.9214896
Ohio 14	Wager	Joyce	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	19	0.8684227
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-15	-15	-8	71	0.0940148
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Costello	13	2	5	5	5	4.7	25	0.7803581
Pennsylvania 8	Strouse	Fitzpatrick	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	32	0.7007547
Texas 23	Gallego	Hurd	0	3	-5	-5	-10	-3.4	53	0.287916
Utah 4	Owens	Love	0	16	10	10	10	9.2	5	0.9349738
Virginia 10	Foust	Comstock	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	30	0.712084
Washington 1	Delbene		0	-4	-10	-15	-15	-8.8	76	0.0737982
West Virginia 2	Mooney	Casey	0	11	5	5	5	5.2	23	0.8039126
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Jenkins	-12	14	0	5	-5	1.6	36	0.603835

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 55; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 230; Democrats 208

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

Obama: The Worst 6 Month Stretch in Presidential History (Part I)

Year 5 to 5.5 of the Obama presidency has to be one of the worst 6 month stretches in American presidential history. Even if an educated person delved into the good economic news, they will find some very discouraging trends. First, the GDP in the first quarter was -3%. Secondly, a great portion of the new jobs added to the economy are part-time positions and lower paying jobs. History will eventually prove ObamaCare is the culprit that can be blamed for turning more jobs into part-time positions in U.S. history. Thirdly, the job growth coincides with the GOP Congressional move to finally end “extended” unemployment benefits. And finally, the U.S. labor force participation remains at pre-1980 levels.

Foreign policy is a mess. Obama agreed to let Assad and Putin to exterminate Syria citizens so long as they do not do it using chemical weapons. Iraq is now a heaven for the terrorist group ISIS and is in worse shape than when Saddam Hussain ran the country. The U.S. has left Afghanistan with the Taliban in control of most of the country. And if that is not bad enough Israel and Palestine are back at war. Other foreign policy moves by the White House were just as puzzling such as the administration trading the top 5 Taliban generals held in Guantanamo along with funding for a lone traitor soldier who cost the lives of several U.S. service men – Bowe Bergdahl. U.S – German relations are at an all-time low since it was uncovered that the NSA was spying on Prime Minister Merkel’s communications. Now Germany is asking the U.S. for the dismissal of the CIA station chief. And in another inept maneuver a White House staffer gave away the identification of the Afghanistan CIA station chief.

The Southern U.S. has been turned into both a humanitarian and national security crisis. More than 50,000 unaccompanied minors have illegally crossed into the U.S. telling us a few simple things. First, and most importantly, the border is not secure. Secondly, border agents dealing with children only leaves our border more vulnerable to drug lords and terrorists. And finally, this is a crisis created by an executive order issued by Obama stating that minors of illegal aliens could earn U.S. citizenship through amnesty. To complicate matters, the President refuses to lead and visit the Southern border. Obama says he is not about “photo ops”. In fact, that is all Obama is about: campaigning and consequently photo ops.

The IRS scandal is getting worse. An agent was fired for campaigning for Obama and the targeting of conservative charitable groups is becoming more blatantly obvious that this was indeed political with ties to Senators and possibly the White House. What did we learn: Subpoenaed emails from the former head of the non-profit department at the IRS, Lois Lerner, were lost. One 2013 email from Lerner warns staffers to be careful what they write in emails because Congress can read them. Lerner then asks the head of the IRS IT Department what types of correspondence is not saved and cannot be viewed by Congress. This can only suggest that Lerner, who pleaded the fifth at a Congressional hearing, does indeed have a lot to hide and there is a cover up within the IRS. Nobody would worry about email content if they were not also interested in learning how to cover up email content. Remember, Obama said that there was not a “smidgen” of corruption at the IRS.

We also learned a lot more about the Benghazi scandal. First, the president was not in the situation room when the attack occurred on the U.S. embassy in Libya and secondly, the talking point cover up went directly to Press Secretary (Jay Carney) at the White House.

2014 Election Polls and Models (7/25/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability	Gain	Incumbent
Arkansas	Ross	Hutchinson	7.2	11	0.697458	1	Rep Gain	-1
California	Brown	Kashkari	19.5	5	0.9193164	1	Rep Gain	-1
Connecticut	Malloy	Foley	0	22	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Colorado	Hickenlooper	Beauprez	-1.5	26	0.457105	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Hawaii	Abercrombie	Aiona	0	22	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Illinois	Quinn	Rauner	2.7	15	0.5768783	1	Rep Gain	-1
Maryland	Brown	Hogan	-15.5	33	0.1328095	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Massacusetts	Coakley	Baker	-7.7	30	0.2901272	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Minnesota	Dayton		-9	31	0.2590169	-1	Dem Hold	-1
New Hampshire	Hassan		-25	35	0.0362872	-1	Dem Hold	-1
New York	Cuomo	Astorino	-35	36	0.0059737	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Oregon	Kitzhaber	Richardson	-9.5	32	0.2475281	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Rhode Island	Chafee		0	22	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	22	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Arizona			1	17	0.5286274	1	Rep Hold	1
Alabama	Griffith	Bentley	23	4	0.9507182	1	Rep Hold	1
Alaska	Mallott	Parnell	10	9	0.7636827	1	Rep Hold	1
Florida	Crist	Scott	-3.6	27	0.3979906	-1	Dem Gain	1
Georgia	Carter	Deal	1.7	16	0.5485876	1	Rep Hold	1
Idaho	Balukoff	Otter	14	6	0.8426668	1	Rep Hold	1
Iowa	Hatch	Branstad	11.8	8	0.8016347	1	Rep Hold	1
Kansas	Davis	Brownback	-6	29	0.3332635	-1	Dem Gain	1
Maine	Michaud	LePage	-4	28	0.3869491	-1	Dem Gain	1
Michigan	Schauer	Snyder	3.3	14	0.5936738	1	Rep Hold	1
Nebraska	Hassebrook	Ricketts	7	12	0.6924262	1	Rep Hold	1
Nevada	Goodman	Sandoval	27	2	0.9737577	1	Rep Hold	1
New Mexico	King	Martinez	1	17	0.5286274	1	Rep Hold	1
Oklahoma	Dorman	Fallin	5	13	0.6402397	1	Rep Hold	1
Ohio	Fitzgerald	Kasich	9.5	10	0.7524719	1	Rep Hold	1
Pennsylvania	Wolf	Corbett	-21.5	34	0.0612787	-1	Dem Gain	1
South Carolina	Sheheen	Haley	1	17	0.5286274	1	Rep Hold	1
South Dakota	Wismer	Daugarrd	27	2	0.9737577	1	Rep Hold	1
Tennessee		Haslam	30	1	0.9844033	1	Rep Hold	1
Texas	Davis	Abbott	12.6	7	0.8172489	1	Rep Hold	1
Wisconsin	Burke	Walker	0.7	21	0.5200479	1	Rep Hold	1
Wyoming		Mead	1	17	0.5286274	1	Rep Hold	1
			0
			13.9237		0.5449815	6	-1	8
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability	Gain	Incumbent
Alabama	Unopposed	Sessions	50	2	0.9983532	1	Rep Hold	1
Alaska	Begich	Sullivan	-6	31	0.3621675	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Arkansas	Pryor	Cotton	2.8	16	0.5653627	1	Rep Gain	-1
Delaware	Coons		0	21	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Georgia	Nunn	Perdue	-4	28	0.4070601	-1	Dem Gain	1
Hawaii	Schatz	Hanabusa	-4	28	0.4070601	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Illinois	Durbin	Oberweis	0	21	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Massachusetts	Markey		0	21	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Maine	Bellows	Collins	55	1	0.9993871	1	Rep Hold	1
Michigan	Peters	Land	-5.8	30	0.3665836	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Minnesota	Franken	McFadden	-11.5	34	0.2495352	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Mississippi	Childers	Cochran	13	11	0.7776024	1	Rep Hold	1
Kentucky	Grimes	McConnell	1.5	31	0.5351284	1	Rep Hold	1
Idaho	Mitchell	Risch	25	3	0.9291464	1	Rep Hold	1
Kansas	Taylor	Roberts	10	13	0.7216618	1	Rep Hold	1
Nebraska	Domina	Sasse	17	8	0.8411596	1	Rep Hold	1
Colorado	Udall	Gardner	-1	25	0.4765643	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Louisiana	Landrieu	Cassidy	1	18	0.5234357	1	Rep Gain	-1
New Jersey	Booker	Bell	-17	35	0.1588404	-1	Dem Hold	-1
New Mexico	Udall	Weh	0	21	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Oklahoma		Langford	1	18	0.5234357	1	Rep Hold	1
Oklahoma	Silverstein	Inhofe	31	3	0.9657827	1	Rep Hold	1
Montana	Walsh	Daines	13	11	0.7776024	1	Rep Gain	-1
Rhode Island	Reed		0	21	0.5	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Tennessee		Alexander	25	4	0.9291464	1	Rep Hold	1
Texas	Alameel	Cornyn	11	13	0.7410429	1	Rep Hold	1
South Carolina	Dickerson	Scott	22	6	0.9020166	1	Rep Hold	1
South Carolina	Hutto	Graham	19	7	0.8679584	1	Rep Hold	1
Virginia	Warner	Gillespie	-20	36	0.1198832	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Oregon	Merkley	Wehby	-10	32	0.2783382	-1	Dem Hold	-1
West Virginia	Tennant	Capito	10	14	0.7216618	1	Rep Gain	-1
New Hampshire	Shaheen	Brown	-10.5	33	0.2685598	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Wyoming		Enzi	15	9	0.8110246	1	Rep Hold	1
South Dakota	Weiland	Rounds	14.5	10	0.8029731	1	Rep Gain	-1
North Carolina	Hagan	Tillis	-2.6	27	0.4392685	-1	Dem Hold	-1
Iowa	Braley	Ernst	0.7	20	0.5164098	1	Rep Gain	-1
			0
			17.013		0.5977425	4	5	-6
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 2	Hays	Hill	0	8	5	5	5	4.6	25	0.7783828
Arkansas 4			0	15	10	10	15	10	2	0.9522262
Arizona 1	Kirkpatrick		0	4	0	0	-5	-0.2	39	0.4867031
Arizona 2	Barber	McSally	-8	3	0	0	-5	-1.2	47	0.4207325
Arizona 9	Sinema		0	1	-5	-5	-10	-3.8	58	0.2632374
California 3	Garamendi	Logue	0	-1	-10	-15	-15	-8.2	74	0.0858436
California 7	Bera	Ose	0	0	0	-5	-5	-2	50	0.3694288
California 9	McNerney	Amador	0	-6	-10	-15	-15	-9.2	77	0.0625781
California 10	Eggman	Denham	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	18	0.8849535
California 16	Costa		0	-7	-10	-15	-15	-9.4	78	0.0585781
California 21	Renteria	Valadao	0	-2	5	5	5	2.6	34	0.6676294
California 25			0	3	10	15	10	7.6	15	0.8973853
California 24	Capps		0	-4	-10	-5	15	-0.8	43	0.4469596
California 26	Brownley	Gorell	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	58	0.2632374
California 31	Aguilar	Chabot	0	-5	-5	-5	-5	-4	62	0.2524713
California 36	Ruiz	Ruiz	0	1	0	-5	-10	-2.8	53	0.3203526
California 52	Peters	DiMaio	7	-2	0	0	5	1.3	37	0.5857743
Colorado 6	Romanoff	Coffman	0	-1	0	0	-5	-1.2	48	0.4207325
Connecticut 5	Esty		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	68	0.1026147
Florida 2	Graham	Southerland	0	6	5	5	5	4.2	26	0.7580581
Florida 26	Garcia		0	1	0	0	-5	-0.8	43	0.4469596
Florida 10	Demings	Webster	0	6	5	15	15	8.2	10	0.9141564
Florida 13		Jolly	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	5	0.9374219
Florida 18	Murphy		0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	49	0.4077423
Hawaii 2			0	-21	-10	-5	-15	-10.2	79	0.0445495
Georgia 12	Barrow	Allen	0	14	-5	-5	-5	-0.2	39	0.4867031
Illinois 8	Duckworth		0	-8	-10	-5	-15	-7.6	68	0.1026147
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	3	-8	0	-5	-5	-3.3	56	0.2911409
Illinois 11	Foster		0	-8	-10	-10	-15	-8.6	75	0.0758609
Illinois 12	Enyart	Bost	0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	54	0.30852
Illinois 13	Callis	Davis	0	0	5	5	5	3	33	0.69148
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-7	-5	-10	-10	-6.4	67	0.1430372
Indiana 2	Bock	Walorski	0	6	5	10	10	6.2	21	0.8493001
Iowa 1	Murphy	Blum	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	71	0.0911894
Iowa 3	Appel		0	0	0	0	-5	-1	45	0.4338096
Iowa 4	Mowrer	King	0	5	10	10	15	8	11	0.9088106
Kentucky 6		Barr	0	9	10	-5	-15	-0.2	39	0.4867031
Maine 2	Cain	Poliquin	-5	-2	-5	-5	-10	-4.9	65	0.2070362
Massachusetts 6	Tierney	Tisei	5	-4	-5	-10	-5	-4.3	63	0.2367679
Michigan 8			0	2	5	5	5	3.4	30	0.7145488
Michigan 1	Cannon	Benishek	0	5	5	5	5	4	27	0.7475287
Michigan 3		Amash	0	4	10	15	15	8.8	7	0.9287865
Michigan 7	Byrnes	Walberg	0	3	5	5	5	3.6	29	0.7257668
Michigan 11		Trott	0	4	10	10	15	7.8	13	0.9032217
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-10	-15	-15	-7.8	70	0.0967783
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	2	10	10	15	7.4	17	0.8912972
Minnesota 8	Nolan		0	-1	-5	-5	-5	-3.2	55	0.296883
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	6	-10	-5	-10	-3.8	58	0.2632374
Montana 1	Lewis	Zinke	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	9	0.9192642
New Jersey 3	Belgard	McArthur	0	1	0	5	-5	0.2	38	0.5132969
New Jersey 2	Hughes	LoBiondo	0	-1	10	10	15	6.8	19	0.8714865
New York 1	Bishop	Zeldin	0	2	-5	-5	-5	-2.6	51	0.3323706
New York 11	Recchia	Grimm	0	2	-5	-5	-5	-2.6	51	0.3323706
New York 18	Maloney	Hayworth	0	0	-5	-10	-15	-6	66	0.1586312
New York 19	Eldridge	Gibson	0	-1	5	0	5	1.8	35	0.6179228
New York 21	Woolf	Stefanik	0	0	0	0	-5	-1	45	0.4338096
New York 24	Maffei	Katko	0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	71	0.0911894
New York 23	Robertson	Reed	0	3	15	5	5	5.6	22	0.8247
New York 27	Hochul	Collins	0	8	0	15	15	7.6	15	0.8973853
Nebraska 2	Sullivan	Terry	0	4	15	5	15	7.8	13	0.9032217
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	4	1	0	0	-5	-0.4	42	0.4734209
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Lambert	-8	-3	-5	-5	-5	-4.4	64	0.2316553
New Mexico 2	Lara	Pearce	0	5	10	10	15	8	11	0.9088106
Nevada 2	Spees	Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	2	0.9522262
Nevada 3	Bilbay	Heck	0	0	5	10	5	4	27	0.7475287
Nevada 4	Horsford	Hardy	0	-4	0	-10	-5	-3.8	58	0.2632374
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	10	10	15	15	10	2	0.9522262
North Carolina 7	Barfield	Rouzer	0	12	10	15	15	10.4	1	0.9584971
Ohio 6		Johnson	0	8	10	10	15	8.6	8	0.9241391
Ohio 14	Wager	Joyce	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	19	0.8714865
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-10	-15	-15	-8	71	0.0911894
Pennsylvania 6	Trivedi	Costello	13	2	5	5	5	4.7	24	0.7833072
Pennsylvania 8	Strouse	Fitzpatrick	0	1	5	5	5	3.2	32	0.703117
Texas 23	Gallego	Hurd	0	3	-5	-5	-10	-3.4	57	0.2854512
Utah 4	Owens	Love	0	16	10	10	10	9.2	5	0.9374219
Virginia 10	Foust	Comstock	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	30	0.7145488
Washington 1	Delbene		0	-4	-10	-15	-15	-8.8	76	0.0712135
West Virginia 2	Mooney	Casey	0	11	5	5	5	5.2	23	0.8069613
West Virginia 3	Rahall	Jenkins	-12	14	0	5	-5	1.6	36	0.6051473

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 234; Democrats 204

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 234; Democrats 204