2012 Election Polls and Models (6/29/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 60.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 196;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	13	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	13	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	4.7	10	0.6743485	6.069136304
Arkansas		6	0	13	0.5	2
California	55		-16.8	47	0.0531022	2.81441925
Colorado	9		-3	34	0.3864895	2.705426451
Connecticut	7		-12	43	0.1242661	0.621330537
DC	3		0	13	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	-1.8	31	0.431291	11.64485755
Georgia		16	10	4	0.8318751	11.64625139
Hawaii	4		0	13	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	13	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	13	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	5	0.8066017	7.259415399
Iowa	6		-2.5	32	0.4050099	1.620039763
Kansas		6	0	13	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	13	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	13	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-20	48	0.0272273	0.245045487
Maine	4		-15.8	46	0.0643397	0.128679346
Maryland	10		0	13	0.5	4
Michigan	16		-3.5	36	0.3682241	5.155137468
Minnesota	10		-11.6	42	0.1323272	1.058617209
Mississippi		6	0	13	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	11	0.6135105	4.908084056
Montana		3	7	6	0.7495649	0.749564866
Nebraska		5	13	2	0.8943652	2.683095604
Nevada	6		-5.3	37	0.3051488	1.220595041
New Hampshire	4		-6	38	0.2819829	0.563965856
New Jersey	14		-15	45	0.0745945	0.895133496
New Mexico	5		-12.3	44	0.1184502	0.355350539
New York	29		-25.2	49	0.0076915	0.20766963
North Carolina	15	0	2	12	0.5762543	7.491306465
North Dakota		3	13	2	0.8943652	0.894365201
Ohio	18		-2.6	33	0.4012873	6.420597338
Oklahoma		7	35	1	0.9996181	4.998090603
Oregon	7		-6	38	0.2819829	1.40991464
Pennsylvania	20		-8	40	0.2208632	3.975537421
Rhode Island	4		0	13	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	13	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	13	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	6	0.7495649	6.74608379
Texas		38	7	6	0.7495649	26.98433516
Utah		6	0	13	0.5	2
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0014367	0.001436709
Virginia	13		-1.4	30	0.4464545	4.910999475
Washington	12		-11.5	41	0.1343975	1.343975078
West Virginia		5	0	13	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-3	34	0.3864895	3.091915944
Wyoming		3	6	9	0.7180171	0.718017072
			0
Total	315	220	10.3993		0.4482141	0.394341127
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	5	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9908099				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	5	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11	12	0.0230149				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	5	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Cilley	Lamontagne	0.3	4	0.5216967				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7	2	0.8978902	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	5	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	5	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	5	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	2.7	3	0.6878308	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	5	0.5				-1
			0
			5.51345		0.5517702
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	6.4	4	0.7394609			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	0	10	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	24	0.3703719			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	10	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6	26	0.2737272			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0224674			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.9823773			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.2	9	0.5079993			1
Maine	Dill	Summers	0	10	0.5	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-12	29	0.1144575			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar	Bills	0	10	0.5			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	10	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	6	7.5	0.7262728	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	9	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	-1.5	22	0.4402266			-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9197936	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.7	6	0.6812642			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-34	33	0.0003261			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11	28	0.1350364			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	25	0.3259284			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	3	7	0.6182125			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-10.8	27	0.1394392			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-15.2	30	0.0637543			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	10	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	10	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	10	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	10	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	10	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.1	22	0.4960001			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-16	31	0.0543338			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	10	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	9.3	3	0.8244474	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	8	0.5399323			1
			0
			9.97375		0.453813
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8860188
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9243945
Arkansas 4		Cotton	0	8	10	10	10	7.6	38	0.8623202
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	82	0.4203738
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9243945
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	-10	-5	-5	-3.4	94	0.3127782
Arizona 9	Barber		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3333868
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	0	-1	-10	-10	-10	-6.2	107	0.186769
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	81	0.477109
California 9	McNerney	Gill	0	-2	-5	-5	-10	-4.4	99	0.2638511
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7170523
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	111	0.1440957
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	5	5	4.6	52	0.7454446
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9647307
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	100	0.2545554
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	79	0.522891
California 31		Miller	0	-2	15	15	-5	4.6	52	0.7454446
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	38	0.8623202
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	100	0.2545554
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	106	0.1945749
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	78	0.5457066
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7072613
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	8	0.9283993
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	70	0.6239072
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.7	113	0.134546
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	44	0.8354632
Florida 9			0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	86	0.3545112
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7072613
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8860188
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	33	0.8803861
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	36	0.8745598
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6239072
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9202213
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3333868
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	51	0.7635084
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	109	0.1575238
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	100	0.2545554
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	92	0.3230146
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	82	0.4203738
Illinois 13	Gill		0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	67	0.6561119
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	92	0.3230146
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	55	0.7361489
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8860188
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1254402
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1314616
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6239072
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	60	0.7072613
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-10	-5	-15	-4.2	98	0.2733168
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	112	0.1376798
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9428083
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2191567
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0756055
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	103	0.2191567
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9243945
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	52	0.7454446
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	33	0.8803861
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	23	0.9066569
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	15	10	15	8.2	33	0.8803861
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.1314616
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8492899
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	36	0.8745598
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9322392
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4091847
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-10	-15	-7	109	0.1575238
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	43	0.8424762
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	1	5	10	5	4.2	56	0.7266832
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9322392
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0640818
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9158762
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0571917
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	26	0.8967117
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0756055
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	88	0.3333868
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0841238
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	10	10	6	46	0.8054251
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	76	0.5796262
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	73	0.6019309
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	49	0.7892292
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	87	0.3438881
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	97	0.2927387
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-10	-3	88	0.3333868
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	28	0.89146
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	0	5	5	3.4	64	0.6872218
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	8	0.9283993
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	75	0.5908153
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	84	0.4091847
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	121	0.0982235
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9243945
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	77	0.5570629
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	108	0.17916
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	20	0.9113558
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	0	11	0	5	5	4.2	56	0.7266832
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	5	5.4	50	0.7808433
North Carolina 11	Rogers		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	28	0.89146
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9243945
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	22	0.9090289
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	58	0.7170523
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	44	0.8354632
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	73	0.6019309
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.7974239
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0756055
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	121	0.0982235
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9158762
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1314616
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8492899
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	40	0.8492899
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	67	0.6561119
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	0	6	0	0	-5	0.2	80	0.5114502
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	8	0.9283993
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	20	0.9113558
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	23	0.9066569
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.1314616
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	23	0.9066569
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9428083
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0841238
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	95	0.3026841
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9359182
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9158762
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	69	0.6239072
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0841238
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	121	0.0982235
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	0	13	0	0	5	3.6	63	0.6973159
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	5	10	10	6	46	0.8054251
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	120	0.1139812
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	95	0.3026841
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	121	0.0982235
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1254402
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	26	0.8967117
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	121	0.0982235
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9394399
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	105	0.2025761
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	129	0.0797787
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	66	0.6666132
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	64	0.6872218