2012 Election Polls and Models (6/19/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 191 (R +19), Obama at 61% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 196;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 191

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

		Presidential Race
State	Democrat Electoral Vote	Republican Electoral Vote	Poll	Rank	Probability	Weighted Probability
Alabama		9	0	14	0.5	3.5
Alaska		3	0	14	0.5	0.5
Arizona		11	4	10	0.6531408	5.878267148
Arkansas		6	0	14	0.5	2
California	55		-16.8	47	0.0490619	2.600279214
Colorado	9		-1.8	32	0.4296693	3.007684799
Connecticut	7		-12	44	0.1187136	0.593568132
DC	3		0	14	0.5	0.5
Florida	0	29	0.2	13	0.5078549	13.71208349
Georgia		16	10	4	0.8375737	11.72603177
Hawaii	4		0	14	0.5	1
Idaho		4	0	14	0.5	1
Illinois	20		0	14	0.5	9
Indiana		11	9	5	0.8122132	7.309918423
Iowa	6		-1.8	32	0.4296693	1.718677028
Kansas		6	0	14	0.5	2
Kentucky		8	0	14	0.5	3
Louisiana		8	0	14	0.5	3
Massachusetts	11		-20	48	0.0244725	0.220252894
Maine	4		-8	41	0.2154572	0.430914402
Maryland	10		0	14	0.5	4
Michigan	16		-5.4	39	0.2974846	4.16478472
Minnesota	10		-11.6	43	0.1267145	1.013715613
Mississippi		6	0	14	0.5	2
Missouri		10	3	12	0.6161407	4.929125845
Montana		3	7	6	0.7546432	0.754643236
Nebraska		5	13	2	0.899709	2.699127062
Nevada	6		-5.3	38	0.3009036	1.203614346
New Hampshire	4		-6.4	40	0.2643138	0.528627652
New Jersey	14		-15	46	0.0698643	0.838371878
New Mexico	5		-12.3	45	0.1129519	0.338855832
New York	29		-25.2	49	0.0065502	0.176855598
North Carolina	15	0	3.3	11	0.6273703	8.155813865
North Dakota		3	13	2	0.899709	0.899709021
Ohio	18		-1.8	32	0.4296693	6.874708111
Oklahoma		7	35	1	0.9997154	4.99857695
Oregon	7		-4	37	0.3468592	1.734296029
Pennsylvania	20		-8	41	0.2154572	3.878229614
Rhode Island	4		0	14	0.5	1
South Carolina		9	0	14	0.5	3.5
South Dakota		3	0	14	0.5	0.5
Tennessee		11	7	6	0.7546432	6.791789126
Texas		38	7	6	0.7546432	27.1671565
Utah		6	0	14	0.5	2
Vermont	3		-31	50	0.0011364	0.001136391
Virginia	13		-3	35	0.3838593	4.222451962
Washington	12		0	14	0.5	5
West Virginia		5	0	14	0.5	1.5
Wisconsin	10		-3.4	36	0.3689099	2.951279319
Wyoming		3	6	9	0.7226463	0.722646283
			0
Total	315	220	10.1571		0.4606344	0.407455614
Governor Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Delaware	Markell		0	4	0.5				-1
Indiana	Gregg	Pence	13	1	0.9877036				1
Kentucky	Beshear		0	4	0.5				-1
Missouri	Nixon	Spence	-11	12	0.02859				-1
Montana	Bullock	Hill	0	4	0.5				-1
New Hampshire	Hassan	Lamontagne	-2	11	0.3647443				-1
North Carolina	Dalton	McCrory	7	2	0.8869221	Gain			-1
North Dakota		Dalrymple	0	4	0.5				1
Utah		Herbert	0	4	0.5				1
Vermont	Shumlin		0	4	0.5				-1
Washington	McKena	Inslee	6.3	3	0.8619867	Gain			-1
West Virginia	Tomblin	Maloney	0	4	0.5				-1
			0
			5.78359		0.5524956
Senate Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	Rank	Probability			Incumbent
Arizona	Carmona	Flake	10.8	3	0.8569843			1
California	Feinstein	Emken	0	11	0.5			-1
Connecticut	Murphy	Shays	-3.3	24	0.3722169			-1
Delaware	Carper		0	11	0.5			-1
Florida	Nelson	Mack	-6.8	26	0.2508772			-1
Hawaii	Hirono	Lingle	-20	32	0.0240954			-1
Indiana	Donnelly	Mourdock	21	1	0.980982			1
Massachusetts	Warren	Brown	0.3	10	0.511821			1
Maine	Pingree	Summers	-3	23	0.3834805	Gain	Independent King Leads	1
Michigan	Stabenow	Hoekstra	-14	29	0.0833359			-1
Minnesota	Klobuchar		0	11	0.5			-1
Mississippi	Gore	Wicker	0	11	0.5			1
Missouri	McCaskill	Steelman	6	7.5	0.7233106	Gain		-1
Maryland	Cardin	Bongino	0	10	0.5			-1
Montana	Tester	Rehberg	2.5	7	0.5975305	Gain		-1
Nebraska	Kerrey	Ficsher	14	2	0.9166641	Gain		-1
Nevada	Berkley	Heller	4.7	6	0.6787783			1
New York	Gillibrand	Turner	-34	33	0.0003916			-1
New Jersey	Menendez	Kyrillos	-11	28	0.1386013			-1
New Mexico	Heinrich	Wilson	-4.5	25	0.3283303			-1
North Dakota	Heitkamp	Berg	3	7	0.6165195			-1
Ohio	Brown	Mandel	-8.3	27	0.2061343			-1
Pennsylvania	Casey	Smith	-15.7	31	0.0604616			-1
Rhode Island	Whitehouse		0	11	0.5			-1
Tennessee		Corker	0	11	0.5			1
Texas		Hutchison	0	11	0.5			1
Utah		Hatch	0	11	0.5			1
Vermont	Sanders		0	11	0.5			-1
Virginia	Kaine	Allen	-0.5	22	0.4803034			-1
Washington	Cantwell	Baumgartner	-15	30	0.0692019			-1
West Virginia	Manchin	Raese	0	11	0.5			-1
Wisconsin	Baldwin	Thompson	8.7	4	0.804946	Gain		-1
Wyoming		Barrasso	1	9	0.5393452			1
			0
			10.1231		0.4583125
House Races
State	Democrat	Republican	Poll	PVI	Cook	Sabato	Election Projection	AVE	Rank	Probability
Arkansas 1		Crawford	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8850301
Arkansas 2		Griffin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9235242
Arkansas 4		Cotton	0	8	10	10	10	7.6	37	0.8613002
Arizona 1		Gosar	0	3	0	-5	-5	-1.4	81	0.4207068
Arizona 5		Schweikert	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9235242
Arizona 2	Giffords		0	3	-10	-5	-5	-3.4	93	0.3135111
Arizona 9	Barber		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	87	0.3340508
California 3	Garamendi	Vann	0	-1	-10	-10	-10	-6.2	106	0.1877835
California 7	Bera	Lungren	0	3	0	0	-5	-0.4	80	0.4772059
California 9	McNerney	Gill	0	-2	-5	-5	-10	-4.4	98	0.2647267
California 10	Hernandez	Denham	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7162283
California 16	Costa		0	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.4	110	0.1451199
California 21	Hernandez	Valadao	0	3	10	5	5	4.6	52	0.7445459
California 23		McCarthy	0	18	15	15	15	12.6	1	0.9641305
California 24	Capps	Maldonado	0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	99	0.2554541
California 26	Brownley	Strickland	0	-3	0	0	5	0.4	78	0.5227941
California 31		Miller	0	-2	-15	-15	-5	-7.4	110	0.1451199
California 36		Bono Mack	0	3	10	10	15	7.6	37	0.8613002
California 41	Takano	Tavaglione	0	-3	-5	-5	-10	-4.6	99	0.2554541
California 47	Lowenthal	DeLong	0	-5	-10	-5	-10	-6	105	0.1955815
California 52	Peters	Bilbray	0	-1	0	0	5	0.8	77	0.5455137
Colorado 3		Tipton	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.706466
Colorado 4		Gardner	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	8	0.9275476
Colorado 6	Miklosi	Coffman	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	69	0.6233991
Connecticut 5	Murphy	McMahon	-3	-2	-10	-10	-15	-7.7	113	0.1355634
Florida 2		Southerland	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	44	0.8344361
Florida 9			0	-3	0	-5	-5	-2.6	85	0.3550999
Florida 26		Rivera	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.706466
Florida 10		Webster	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8850301
Florida 13		Young	0	1	10	15	15	8.2	33	0.8793875
Florida 16		Buchanan	0	5	10	10	15	8	35	0.8735527
Florida 18		West	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6233991
Florida 7		Adams	0	4	15	15	15	9.8	16	0.9193331
Florida 22			0	-5	0	-5	-5	-3	87	0.3340508
Georgia 12	Barrow		0	10	5	5	5	5	51	0.7625693
Illinois 8	Duckworth	Walsh	0	-5	-10	-10	-10	-7	108	0.1585516
Illinois 10	Schneider	Dold	0	-8	-5	-5	-5	-4.6	99	0.2554541
Illinois 11	Foster	Biggert	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.3237138
Illinois 12	Harriman	Plummer	0	-2	0	0	-5	-1.4	81	0.4207068
Illinois 13	Gill		0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6554848
Illinois 17	Bustos	Schilling	0	-6	0	-5	-5	-3.2	91	0.3237138
Indiana 2	Mullen	Walorski	0	7	5	5	5	4.4	54	0.7352733
Indiana 8		Bucshon	0	7	10	10	15	8.4	30	0.8850301
Iowa 1	Braley		0	-5	-10	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1264473
Iowa 2	Loebsack		0	-4	-10	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.132476
Iowa 3	Boswell	Latham	0	1	0	5	5	2.2	68	0.6233991
Iowa 4	Vilsack	King	0	4	5	5	5	3.8	59	0.706466
Kentucky 6	Chandler	Barr	0	9	-10	-5	-15	-4.2	97	0.2741675
Maine 2	Michaud		0	-3	-10	-10	-15	-7.6	112	0.1386998
Maryland 1		Harris	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9420365
Maryland 6	Delany	Bartlett	0	-2	-10	-5	-10	-5.4	102	0.2201286
Massachusetts 10	Keating		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0764758
Massachusetts 6	Tierney		0	-7	-5	-5	-10	-5.4	102	0.2201286
Missouri 2		Akin	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9235242
Michigan 1		Benishek	0	3	5	5	10	4.6	52	0.7445459
Michigan 3		Amash	0	6	10	10	15	8.2	33	0.8793875
Michigan 7		Walberg	0	1	15	15	15	9.2	23	0.9057196
Michigan 11		McCotter	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.848263
Minnesota 1	Walz		0	1	-15	-10	-15	-7.8	114	0.132476
Minnesota 2		Kline	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.848263
Minnesota 3		Paulsen	0	0	15	10	15	8	35	0.8735527
Minnesota 6		Bachman	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9314068
Minnesota 8		Cravaack	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.409563
Minnesota 7	Peterson		0	5	-15	-10	-15	-7	108	0.1585516
Montana 1	Gillan	Daines	6	7	10	5	10	7	43	0.8414484
New Jersey 3	Adler	Runyan	0	1	5	10	5	4.2	55	0.7258325
New Jersey 5		Garrett	0	7	15	15	15	10.4	6	0.9314068
New Jersey 6	Pallone		0	-8	-15	-15	-15	-10.6	133	0.0648945
New Jersey 7		Lance	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9149708
New Jersey 8	Pascrell		0	-10	-15	-15	-15	-11	134	0.0579635
New York 2		King	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	26	0.8957465
New York 3	Israel		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0764758
New York 1	Bishop		0	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	87	0.3340508
New York 4	McCarthy		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0850292
New York 11		Grimm	0	5	5	10	10	6	46	0.8044185
New York 18		Hayworth	0	2	0	0	5	1.4	75	0.5792932
New York 19		Gibson	0	-1	0	5	5	1.8	72	0.6015083
New York 22		Hanna	0	3	10	5	10	5.6	49	0.7882439
New York 21	Owens		0	1	-5	-5	-5	-2.8	86	0.3445152
New York 24		Buerkle	0	-4	-5	-5	-5	-3.8	96	0.293534
New York 25	Slaughter		0	5	-5	-5	-10	-3	87	0.3340508
New York 23		Reed	0	3	10	15	15	8.6	28	0.8904824
New York 27	Hochul		0	7	0	5	5	3.4	63	0.6864889
Nebraska 2		Terry	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	8	0.9275476
New Hampshire 1	Shea-Porter	Guinta	-4	0	5	0	5	1.6	74	0.590437
New Hampshire 2	Kuster	Bass	0	-3	0	0	-5	-1.6	83	0.409563
New Mexico 1	Heinrich		0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	121	0.0991753
Nevada 2		Amodei	0	5	15	15	15	10	11	0.9235242
Nevada 3		Heck	0	0	0	0	5	1	76	0.5568227
Nevada 4			0	-2	-10	-10	-10	-6.4	107	0.1801805
North Carolina 2		Ellmers	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	20	0.910434
North Carolina 7	McIntyre	Rouzer	0	11	0	5	5	4.2	55	0.7258325
North Carolina 8	Kissell		0	12	5	5	5	5.4	50	0.7798714
North Carolina 11	Rogers		0	13	10	10	10	8.6	28	0.8904824
North Carolina 13	Malone	Holding	0	10	10	15	15	10	11	0.9235242
North Dakota 1	Heitkamp	Berg	3	10	10	10	15	9.3	22	0.9080992
Ohio 6	Wilson	Johnson	0	5	5	5	5	4	57	0.7162283
Ohio 7	Healey-Abrams	Gibbs	0	4	10	10	10	6.8	44	0.8344361
Ohio 16	Sutton	Renacci	0	4	0	0	5	1.8	72	0.6015083
Oklahoma 2	Boren		0	14	5	5	5	5.8	48	0.796427
Oregon 1	Wu		0	-5	-15	-15	-15	-10	130	0.0764758
Oregon 5	Schrader		0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	121	0.0991753
Pennsylvania 3		Kelly	0	3	15	15	15	9.6	17	0.9149708
Pennsylvania 4	Altmire		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.132476
Pennsylvania 6		Gerlach	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.848263
Pennsylvania 7		Meehan	0	1	10	10	15	7.2	39	0.848263
Pennsylvania 8	Boockvar	Fitzpatrick	0	-1	5	5	5	2.8	66	0.6554848
Pennsylvania 12	Critz	Rothfus	0	6	0	0	-5	0.2	79	0.5114017
Pennsylvania 11		Barletta	0	6	15	15	15	10.2	8	0.9275476
Pennsylvania 15		Dent	0	2	15	15	15	9.4	20	0.910434
Pennsylvania 18		Murphy	0	6	10	15	15	9.2	23	0.9057196
Pennsylvania 17	Holden		0	6	-15	-15	-15	-7.8	114	0.132476
South Carolina 7			0	6	10	15	15	9.2	23	0.9057196
South Dakota 1		Noem	0	10	15	15	15	11	2	0.9420365
Tennessee 5	Cooper		0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0850292
Rhode Island 1	Cicilline		0	-13	0	0	-5	-3.6	94	0.3034491
Texas 10		McCaul	0	8	15	15	15	10.6	5	0.9351055
Texas 14		Paul	0	8	10	15	15	9.6	17	0.9149708
Texas 23		Canseco	0	6	0	0	5	2.2	68	0.6233991
Texas 34			0	-3	-15	-15	-15	-9.6	126	0.0850292
Texas 35			0	0	-15	-15	-15	-9	121	0.0991753
Utah 4	Matheson	Love	0	13	0	0	5	3.6	62	0.6965509
Virginia 2		Rigell	0	5	5	10	10	6	46	0.8044185
Virginia 11	Connolly		0	-2	-15	-10	-15	-8.4	120	0.1149699
Washington 1	Inslee		0	-3	-5	-5	-5	-3.6	94	0.3034491
Washington 6			0	-5	-10	-15	-15	-9	121	0.0991753
Washington 2	Larsen		0	0	-15	-10	-15	-8	118	0.1264473
Washington 3		Buetler	0	-1	15	15	15	8.8	26	0.8957465
Washington 10			0	-5	-15	-10	-15	-9	121	0.0991753
West Virginia 1		McKinley	0	9	15	15	15	10.8	4	0.9386474
West Virginia 3	Rahall		0	6	-10	-10	-15	-5.8	104	0.203573
Wisconsin 3	Kind		0	-4	-15	-15	-15	-9.8	129	0.0806669
Wisconsin 7	Kreitlow	Duffy	0	0	5	5	5	3	65	0.6659492
Wisconsin 8	Wall	Ribble	0	2	5	5	5	3.4	63	0.6864889