Tuesday, August 19, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (8/18/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

5.3

20

0.6324581

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

19.5

6

0.8934247

1

Rep Gain

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

7

16

0.6725281

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-1.2

26

0.469466

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

7

16

0.6725281

1

Rep Gain

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

7

16

0.6725281

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-14

31

0.1857119

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-11.5

29

0.2314132

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-13

30

0.203279

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-20

33

0.100824

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-31

36

0.0238996

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-10.5

28

0.2513151

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Taveras

Block

-25

34

0.0552345

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-25

34

0.0552345

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Jones

11

12

0.7587474

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

25

3

0.9447655

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

12

10

0.7781983

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

0.8

23

0.5203671

1

Rep Hold

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

1.3

22

0.5330729

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

18

7

0.8747599

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

11.5

11

0.7685868

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-2

27

0.4491983

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1

25

0.4745474

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

3.5

21

0.5884083

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7.5

15

0.683969

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

24

5

0.937269

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

7

16

0.6725281

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

10

13

0.7384048

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

8.2

14

0.6996927

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-15

32

0.1691189

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

13

8

0.796721

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

33

1

0.9824341

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

25

3

0.9447655

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

12.8

9

0.7930921

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

0.3

24

0.5076405

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

28

2

0.9630812

1

Rep Hold

1

0

15.6633

0.5733359

12

2

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9961126

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Treadwell

-2.5

25

0.4470631

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

3

18

0.563442

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

23

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

4

17

0.5843115

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-30

36

0.0551308

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-8

27

0.3351007

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-26

35

0.0831666

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

45

2

0.9917018

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-4

26

0.4156885

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-12.5

32

0.2528896

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13.5

14

0.7638242

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

3

35

0.563442

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

28

2

0.9319602

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Taylor

Roberts

8

15

0.6648993

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

20

7

0.8564893

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-1.5

23

0.4681779

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

1

21

0.5212272

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-11

30

0.2790811

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-17

33

0.1827388

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

23

6

0.8895957

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

27

4

0.9246859

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

14

13

0.7719473

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-10

28

0.2972455

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

17

11

0.8172612

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

15

11

0.7877124

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

16

9

0.8028216

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

16

9

0.8028216

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-19

34

0.1559018

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-12

31

0.2614742

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

9.3

15

0.6897266

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-10.4

29

0.289915

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

27

4

0.9246859

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14.5

12

0.7799108

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

1.3

20

0.5275864

1

Rep Gain

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

0.8

22

0.5169847

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

18.785

0.5718861

8

7

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

14

8

5

5

5

6

24

0.8319164

Arkansas 4

McPherson

Crawford

15

15

10

10

15

11.5

2

0.9673636

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

40

0.4872126

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

46

0.4237328

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

60

0.271223

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

73

0.0943536

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.3742611

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0701456

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

20

0.8757743

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0659353

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

34

0.6615749

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

17

0.888433

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-15

-5

15

-1.8

49

0.3864706

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

60

0.271223

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

63

0.2607038

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-5

-10

-2.8

54

0.3267793

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

7

-2

0

0

5

1.3

36

0.5825349

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

47

0.4237328

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

68

0.111567

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

-5

2.2

35

0.6378236

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4489813

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

12

0.9056464

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

6

0.9298544

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

58

0.2928765

Hawaii 2

Gabbard

Crowley

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0510243

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

40

0.4872126

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.111567

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

3

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.3

56

0.2984127

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

74

0.0840197

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

50

0.3742611

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

32

0.6847001

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-10

-10

-6.4

67

0.1524732

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

10

10

10

7.2

20

0.8757743

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

71

0.0998592

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

44

0.4363246

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

10

15

8

13

0.9001408

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

37

0.5510187

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-5

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.9

66

0.2160972

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

5

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.3

56

0.2984127

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

5

15

5

5.4

26

0.8066423

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

29

0.7392962

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9208172

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

15

5

10

6.6

23

0.8549592

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9208172

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.1055958

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

2

15

10

15

8.4

10

0.9109249

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

46

0.4237328

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

0

6

-10

-5

-5

-2.8

54

0.3267793

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

10

0.9109249

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

39

0.5127874

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

15

10

15

7.8

16

0.8944042

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

52

0.3384251

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

52

0.3384251

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

4

0

-5

-10

-10

-4.6

65

0.2304536

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

33

0.6732207

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

44

0.4363246

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-7

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.7

75

0.0815742

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

25

0.8153134

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

17

0.888433

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

30

0.728777

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

4

1

0

0

-5

-0.4

42

0.4744382

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Lambert

-8

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

64

0.2403133

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

13

0.9001408

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

5

0.9455264

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

13

0.9001408

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

60

0.271223

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

0

15

10

15

15

11

3

0.9610698

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

4

0.9522488

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

9

0.9159803

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

22

0.8621437

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

71

0.0998592

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

19

0.8790294

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

10

10

5

5.2

27

0.7977272

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-10

-3.4

58

0.2928765

Utah 4

Owens

Love

11

16

10

15

15

12.3

1

0.9756735

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

31

0.7071235

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0791828

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

27

0.7977272

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

0

-5

0.6

38

0.5383098

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 19 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 203

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