Saturday, November 5, 2016
2016 Election Projection (11/5)
Here are the facts for the Presidential Race: Poll Average: Clinton +2.3 Extrapolating the State Polls (my model): Clinton +3.0 (42% chance Trump wins) The site Five Thirty Eight: Clinton +2.9%, Electoral count: 291 Clinton, 247 Trump (35% Trump Wins) In 2012 the state poll model I did was correct and the pollster average was wrong. This year they are converging in the same area. Most states do not break down the early vote by political affiliation or demographics. Below are the swing states that provide some of this information: State 2012 Early Voting 2016 Early Voting AZ R+10 (R+10.1) R+6.5 CO R+1.8 (O+4.7) D+0.2 FL D+3.1 (O+0.9) D+0.1 FL AA 12.5% AA 9.3% FL HIS 9.6% HIS 14.1% IA D+11 (O+5.6) D+8.3 OH D+6 (O+1.9) R+5 NV D+6.8 (O+6.6) D+5.5 NC D+16 (R+2.2) D+9.8 NC AA 29% (R+2.2) AA 21.6% GA AA 32% (R+8.0) AA 27.6% ME D+14 (O+15.1) D+14.5 (ME2 D+8.8) D+2 means the early vote had 2% more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. AA 29% means the portion of the African American vote was 29%. HIS 9% means the portion of the Hispanic vote was 9%. The number in () Represents how the state voted in 2012 – R+8.0 means Romney won the state by 8 points and O+1.9 means Obama won the state by 1.9 points. So what does this all mean? It is hard to say because this election is a little harder to prognosticate than others for 2 reasons: 1. Third Party candidates will surely get a large portion of the vote (up to 10%) and 2. Since both candidates are highly unpopular, they both will more than likely get a lower portion of their party vote than most presidential candidates. If we simply look at the trends and ignore the above two complications then we can make some educated guesses based on the early voting: 1. Trump should hold both Arizona and Georgia. Republican support in AZ is down, but it should be enough to push him over the top. Also, with African American vote down substantially in Georgia, it seems hard pressed that Clinton will make up 8 points from 2012. Although African-American vote is down, the good news for Democrats is that voting is up. 2. Early voting suggests Trump should do better in North Carolina than the polls indicate with Democrat and African-American turnout much lower. The state will be decided on an increasing number of independents. The good news for Democrats is that overall early voting is up. The average of the polls has the race even. 3. The early vote suggests Trump may win very close decisions in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. In both Iowa and Ohio the early vote turnout is down (early voting generally favors democrats and their get out to vote machine). Republican turnout is above schedule in Florida and rumor is that the African-American (-3.2%) turnout is considerably lower. However, early voting in Florida overall is up overall which is a good sign for Democrats especially since there is a 4.5% increase in Hispanic vote. Equally a good sign for Democrats is that polls indicate Clinton leads among people who voted early. If that is true Trump is in trouble because it looks like he should lead. But a 4.5% increase in Hispanic vote will not make up for a 3.2% decrease in African-American vote. That should be a net decrease in Democratic vote by 0.5 to 1%. 4. It looks like Trump’s momentum in the polls has run out of steam. 5. New Hampshire looks like it may be in play according to recent polls and is now a toss-up. New Hampshire does not have early voting. 6. Based on the early vote Clinton should win Nevada, Colorado, and Maine (congressional district 2). However, Republicans have been gaining share in the early vote in recent days. Trump is up in the polls in NV, but the early vote, though lower than 2012, still points favorably to Clinton. 7. If Trump wins the Electoral Vote, it seems as if it is highly probable he may not win the popular vote. Trump can lose by 2 points and still win the electoral vote. Without any further information, it looks like Clinton will win the Electoral Vote: 275 to 263 and the popular vote by 2 to 3%. Even if the trend (favoring Trump overall) of the early vote takes place in other battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, it probably will not be enough for Trump to win in these states. There must be a greater move in the polls towards Trump to suggest this is possible. Right now I have the Democrats winning 17 seats in the House and the Senate at 51 to 49 in favor of Republicans (That is a gain of 3 seats for the Democrats).