Wednesday, September 17, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (9/18/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

5

15

0.6287992

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-19

34

0.1058392

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

5

15

0.6287992

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-1.3

24

0.4659497

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

3

18

0.5781663

1

Rep Gain

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

2.7

19

0.570436

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-14

31

0.1787109

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-5.6

27

0.3563935

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-10

29

0.2554782

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-13

30

0.1963991

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-29

36

0.0283048

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-9

28

0.2770545

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-25

35

0.0501529

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-18

33

0.1183593

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

4

17

0.6037015

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

27

3

0.9620381

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

11.5

12

0.7751609

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

1.2

21

0.5314367

1

Rep Hold

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

2.2

20

0.5574933

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

18

6

0.8816407

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

14

10

0.8212891

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-4

26

0.3962985

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-2.3

25

0.4399128

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

1

22

0.5262056

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

10

13

0.7445218

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

23

5

0.9347207

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

10

13

0.7445218

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

15

9

0.8379393

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

16

8

0.8535449

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-16

32

0.1464551

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

17

7

0.8681083

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

29

1

0.9716952

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

26

4

0.9562845

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

14

10

0.8212891

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

-0.3

23

0.4921332

-1

Dem Gain

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

28

2

0.9671583

1

Rep Hold

1

0

15.2126

0.5612455

8

0

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9945335

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

1.3

19

0.526377

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

2.5

18

0.5506255

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-14

31

0.238061

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

3

17

0.5606787

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-32

36

0.0516889

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-12

28

0.2706791

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Addivinola

-26

35

0.0928655

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

36

2

0.9665452

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-4.5

25

0.4094208

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-10.5

27

0.2965271

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13.5

14

0.7539918

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

5.2

30

0.6043654

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

30

3

0.9366071

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-4.5

24

0.4094208

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

22

7

0.868585

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-3.7

21

0.4253138

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

1.3

19

0.526377

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-12

28

0.2706791

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-16

33

0.2077231

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

27

6

0.9153118

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

29

5

0.9300286

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

17

9

0.8065475

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-15

32

0.2225974

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7922769

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

17

9

0.8065475

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

18

8

0.8202034

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

15

13

0.7774026

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-18

34

0.1797966

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-12

28

0.2706791

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

17

9

0.8065475

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-3.8

24

0.42332

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

36

2

0.9665452

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

13.5

14

0.7539918

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-3.7

22

0.4253138

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

-1.4

21

0.4715973

-1

Dem Hold

-1

0

19.6476

0.5660264

4

5

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

14

8

5

5

5

6

26

0.8291156

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

16

15

10

10

15

11.6

2

0.9669669

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

41

0.48736

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

45

0.4246016

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

60

0.2735555

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

72

0.0969278

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

51

0.3756627

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0724611

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

20

0.8730258

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.068192

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

19

-2

5

5

10

5.5

28

0.8082466

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

17

0.8857419

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-15

-5

15

-1.8

49

0.3877444

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

60

0.2735555

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

64

0.2631108

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-5

-5

-1.8

49

0.3877444

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

7

-2

0

0

5

1.3

36

0.5815967

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

46

0.4246016

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

68

0.1142581

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

-2

6

5

5

5

4

31

0.7368892

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

44

0.4495664

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

13

0.9030722

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

6

0.9275389

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-5

-5

-10

-5.6

66

0.1874593

Hawaii 2

Gabbard

Crowley

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.053031

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

41

0.48736

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.1142581

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

3

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.3

57

0.3005317

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

74

0.0864986

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

51

0.3756627

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

35

0.682727

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-10

-10

-6.4

67

0.1552783

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

10

10

10

7.2

20

0.8730258

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

-2.5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.25

73

0.0955758

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

-6

0

0

0

-5

-1.6

48

0.3999356

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

11

5

10

10

15

9.1

7

0.9253289

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

37

0.5504336

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-5

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.9

63

0.2683076

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

5

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.3

57

0.3005317

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

10

15

5

6.4

24

0.8447217

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

31

0.7368892

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

8

0.9183903

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

15

5

10

6.6

23

0.8521604

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

8

0.9183903

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.1082517

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

2

15

10

15

8.4

11

0.9083967

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

45

0.4246016

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-4

6

-10

-5

-5

-3.2

56

0.3060678

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

11

0.9083967

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

40

0.51264

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

15

10

15

7.8

16

0.8917483

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

54

0.3401845

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

54

0.3401845

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

4

0

-5

-5

-10

-3.6

59

0.2842013

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

5

5

5

5.2

29

0.7950073

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

13

0

0

0

-5

0.3

39

0.5189561

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-6

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

74

0.0864986

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

27

0.8125407

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

17

0.8857419

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

5

5

3.7

33

0.7211464

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

1

1

0

0

-5

-0.7

43

0.455843

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-6

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

65

0.2528739

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

14

0.8975239

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

5

0.9434555

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

14

0.8975239

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

60

0.2735555

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

0

15

10

15

15

11

3

0.959325

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

4

0.9503071

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

10

0.9135014

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

22

0.8593566

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

71

0.1024761

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

19

0.8762936

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

10

10

5

5.2

29

0.7950073

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

53

0.3518723

Utah 4

Owens

Love

11

16

10

15

15

12.3

1

0.9743455

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

34

0.7049588

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0816097

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

5

5

6.4

24

0.8447217

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

0

-5

0.6

38

0.5378694

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 249; Democrats 189

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 236; Democrats 202

1 comment:

  1. "Republicans 50; Democrats 50"

    Noooooooooooooooooooo!

    ReplyDelete