Friday, May 9, 2014

2014 Election Projections (5/9/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 24; Democrats 26 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 26; Democrats 24 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 242; Democrats 193

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

8

3

0.922662

-1

California

Brown

0

5

0.5

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

0

5

0.5

1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

-10

36

0.0376191

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

5

0.5

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

0

5

0.5

-1

Maryland

O'Malley

0

5

0.5

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

0

5

0.5

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

0

5

0.5

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

0

5

0.5

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

0

5

0.5

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

5

0.5

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

5

0.5

-1

Arizona

0

5

0.5

1

Alabama

Bentley

0

5

0.5

1

Alaska

Parnell

0

5

0.5

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

0

5

0.5

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

0

5

0.5

1

Idaho

Otter

0

5

0.5

1

Iowa

Branstad

0

5

0.5

1

Kansas

Brownback

0

5

0.5

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

1

4

0.5705996

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

0

5

0.5

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

0

5

0.5

1

Nevada

Sandoval

0

5

0.5

1

New Mexico

Martinez

0

5

0.5

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

0

5

0.5

1

Ohio

Kasich

0

5

0.5

1

Pennsylvania

Corbett

0

5

0.5

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

0

5

0.5

1

South Dakota

Daugarrd

0

5

0.5

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

1

1

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

9

2

0.9453236

1

Wisconis

Walker

0

5

0.5

1

Wyoming

Mead

0

5

0.5

1

0

5.62111

0.5158155

0

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9999989

1

Alaska

Begich

2

3

0.5750967

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

-1

30

0.4622835

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

5

0.5

-1

Georgia

Nunn

0

5

0.5

1

Hawaii

Schatz

0

5

0.5

-1

Illinois

Durbin

0

5

0.5

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

5

0.5

-1

Maine

Collins

0

5

0.5

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-5

33

0.3179592

-1

Minnesota

Franken

-15

34

0.077769

-1

Mississippi

Cochran

0

5

0.5

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

0

9

0.5

1

Idaho

Risch

0

4

0.5

1

Kansas

Roberts

0

4

0.5

1

Nebraska

Johanns

0

5

0.5

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-3

31

0.3881868

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

2

3

0.5750967

-1

New Jersey

Booker

0

5

0.5

-1

New Mexico

Udall

0

5

0.5

-1

Oklahoma

Coburn

0

5

0.5

1

Oklahoma

Inhofe

0

5

0.5

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

0

5

0.5

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

5

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

2

0.9910351

1

Texas

Cornyn

0

5

0.5

1

South Carolina

Scott

0

5

0.5

1

South Carolina

Graham

0

5

0.5

1

Virginia

Warner

-15

34

0.077769

-1

Oregon

Merkley

0

5

0.5

-1

West Virginia

Rockefeller

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Tennant

Brown

0

5

0.5

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

0

5

0.5

1

South Dakota

Rounds

0

5

0.5

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

-1

30

0.4622835

-1

0

10.5616

0.4989453

0

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

27

0.7874265

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

3

0.9585185

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

42

0.4861695

Arizona 2

Barber

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

48

0.4041094

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

55

0.3136789

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

76

0.0775607

California 7

Bera

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

51

0.3643898

California 9

McNerney

0

-6

-10

-5

-15

-7.2

69

0.105961

California 10

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

12

0.894039

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0515801

California 21

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

35

0.6739238

California 25

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

20

0.8342005

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

45

0.4448437

California 26

Brownley

0

-4

-5

-10

-10

-5.8

66

0.1573105

California 31

0

-5

-5

15

-5

0

41

0.5

California 36

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-5

-1.8

50

0.377492

California 52

Peters

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

40

0.5414252

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

40

0.5551563

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

70

0.0938108

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

29

0.7667464

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

45

0.4448437

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

5

15

6.2

17

0.8587954

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

33

0.7104839

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

48

0.4041094

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0384952

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

42

0.4861695

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

70

0.0938108

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.6

60

0.2662649

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

77

0.0679778

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

58

0.3014886

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

34

0.6985114

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

63

0.2227768

Indiana 2

Walorski

0

6

5

5

10

5.2

24

0.8163516

Iowa 1

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

74

0.0827213

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

5

1

38

0.5688215

Iowa 4

King

0

5

10

5

15

7

13

0.8875541

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

42

0.4861695

Maine 2

0

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

63

0.2227768

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

62

0.2550045

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

31

0.7222283

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

15

6

18

0.8508877

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

5

15

6.8

14

0.8807905

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

27

0.7874265

Michigan 11

Bentivolio

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

10

0.9118639

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

72

0.0881361

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

11

0.9002492

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

59

0.2895161

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-10

-10

-4.8

65

0.2026485

Montana 1

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

8

0.9273517

New Jersey 3

0

1

0

0

5

1.2

37

0.5824049

New Jersey 2

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

14

0.8807905

New York 1

Bishop

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

53

0.3260762

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

53

0.3260762

New York 18

Maloney

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

67

0.1491123

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

36

0.622508

New York 21

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

47

0.4311785

New York 24

Maffei

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

74

0.0827213

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

20

0.8342005

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

5

15

5.6

20

0.8342005

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

6

0.9364574

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-15

-2.8

55

0.3136789

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

60

0.2662649

New Mexico 2

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

9

0.9172787

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

3

0.9585185

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

5

10

15

6

18

0.8508877

Nevada 4

Horsford

0

-4

0

-5

-5

-2.8

55

0.3136789

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

3

0.9585185

North Carolina 7

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9643135

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

7

0.9320222

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

14

0.8807905

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

68

0.1124459

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

31

0.7222283

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

10

4.2

29

0.7667464

Texas 23

Gallego

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

52

0.3386687

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

15

10.2

2

0.9615048

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

15

5.4

23

0.8254209

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

72

0.0881361

West Virginia 2

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

24

0.8163516

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

0

14

0

5

5

4.8

26

0.7973515

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