It takes commonsense to derive useful statistical models unless of course an individual’s objective is to mislead, brainwash, and to indoctrinate unaware Americans. For instance, with some simple commonsense in the infant mortality and life expectancy example one could conclude that comparing the wellness amongst private insurance owners, Medicaid owners, and those without insurance would be more accurate and beneficial than comparing these statistics against those of other nations. If liberals did this they would also conclude that those on Medicaid and those without insurance have comparable infant mortality and life expectancy rates. Thus, the lack of health insurance is not causing high infant mortality or lower life expectancies - education is the problem. It is commonsense to surmise that a great healthcare system does not mean individuals within the system will be responsible and healthy. It also makes sense to analyze the Massachusetts healthcare model to prognosticate the effects of socialized healthcare in the U.S. than using data from foreign healthcare systems. Why? Because Massachusetts demographics and other variables (poverty rate, insurance rate, obesity etc.) will more closely emulate U.S. national statistics than say Denmark. This is the type of commonsense that eludes people who want to trick uninformed Americans to create an illusion that socialized medicine is great.
Having knowledge of scientific theories and theorems is also helpful to solve complex problems. For instance, an FBI profiler can use history to draw a profile of a predator, but there is no substitute for forensic science to detain and convict criminals. For example, one could easily conclude that the carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere are always going to go up from understanding Thermodynamics second law on entropy which states the entropy of the universe is always increasing. Entropy measures the inefficiency or disorder of a system. And every system and life form has imperfections leading to carbon emissions. Thus, carbon dioxide is always increasing in our atmosphere.
For many reasons I delve into political issues from a scientific and mathematical perspective. First, it is not as hard and complicated as many may suspect. Data is readily available from numerous government sources and therefore, models are easily constructed. Secondly, creating models enables individuals to better understand how variables affect complicated issues. This perspective enables people to offer better solutions to problems by thinking out of the box. Third, it is hard for individuals to refute model claims because they do not understand them. Thus, math and science is a much more effective way to argue with idiots (as Beck would put it). Interestingly, my experience is that most individuals who are math and science illiterates are still “know it alls” and will ignorantly argue any model results that contradict their beliefs. Fourth, and most importantly, complex problems need to be reviewed analytically.
What are some conclusions that can be drawn from some of the models I have created? What are some of the effects of moving 20 million uninsured Americans into a government run Medicaid program? Most would not be surprised to find out there will be a doctor and nurse shortage, health insurance premiums will go up, life expectancies will go down, and healthcare costs will continue to spiral out of control. What is the effect of reducing our dependency on fossil fuels and increasing our usage of renewable energies? Carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere will continue to go up, energy consumption will go down, and energy costs will skyrocket. What is the effect of raising the taxes on the wealthiest Americans from 35% to 40%? The federal government will collect about 200 billion dollars more in revenue annually, consumer spending will decrease by 700 billion dollars annually, the federal deficit will continue to grow, and entitlement spending will rise uncontrollably. These are some of the model analysis that I will post on my blog over the next several months.
My Book: Is America Dying? (Barnes and Noble, Amazon.com)
No comments:
Post a Comment