Thursday, August 30, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (8/31/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 54.3% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 32; Democrats 18 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 239; Democrats 196;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 235; Democrats 200

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

18

7

0.813278

5.692945861

Alaska

3

25

5

0.8918019

0.891801868

Arizona

11

12

16

0.72353

6.511770242

Arkansas

6

24

6

0.8823311

3.529324555

California

55

-16

42

0.214429

11.36473842

Colorado

9

-1.6

30

0.4684707

3.279294792

Connecticut

7

-7.6

36

0.3535347

1.767673344

Delaware

3

-20

45

0.1613477

0.161347694

DC

3

-75

51

0.0001042

0.000104244

Florida

0

29

-1

27

0.4802817

12.96760467

Georgia

16

8

19

0.6537902

9.153062887

Hawaii

4

-27

49

0.0909282

0.181856373

Idaho

4

34

2

0.9536368

1.907273589

Illinois

20

-21

46

0.1495464

2.691835238

Indiana

11

16

12

0.785571

7.070138759

Iowa

6

-0.2

25

0.4960548

1.984219152

Kansas

6

17

9

0.7997123

3.198849137

Kentucky

8

8

19

0.6537902

3.922741237

Louisiana

8

16

12

0.785571

4.713425839

Massachusetts

11

-18.7

44

0.1775731

1.598158066

Maine

4

-14

40

0.244389

0.488777916

Maryland

10

-23

47

0.1277118

1.021694689

Michigan

16

-2

31

0.4606115

6.448560311

Minnesota

10

-6

34

0.3833553

3.066842612

Mississippi

6

18

7

0.813278

3.253111921

Missouri

10

4.3

23

0.5841886

4.67350911

Montana

3

17

9

0.7997123

0.799712284

Nebraska

5

14

14

0.755611

2.266833127

Nevada

6

-4.2

33

0.4177409

1.670963666

New Hampshire

4

-3.5

32

0.4313008

0.862601541

New Jersey

14

-10

38

0.3104882

3.725858235

New Mexico

5

-14

40

0.244389

0.733166873

New York

29

-26

48

0.0992888

2.68079888

North Carolina

15

0

0.7

24

0.5138057

6.679474232

North Dakota

3

14

14

0.755611

0.755611042

Ohio

18

-1.4

28

0.4724051

7.558481727

Oklahoma

7

29

4

0.9242074

4.621036838

Oregon

7

-6

34

0.3833553

1.916776632

Pennsylvania

20

-8

37

0.3462098

6.231776288

Rhode Island

4

-17

43

0.2002877

0.400575431

South Carolina

9

10

18

0.6895118

4.826582696

South Dakota

3

6

22

0.6166447

0.616644674

Tennessee

11

7

21

0.6353763

5.718387047

Texas

38

12

16

0.72353

26.04708097

Utah

6

42

1

0.9810882

3.924352864

Vermont

3

-37

50

0.0336603

0.033660269

Virginia

13

-0.6

26

0.4881659

5.369824981

Washington

12

-13

39

0.2601746

2.601746175

West Virginia

5

17

9

0.7997123

2.399136853

Wisconsin

10

-1.4

28

0.4724051

3.779240864

Wyoming

3

30

3

0.9310161

0.931016068

0

Total

318

220

20.2238

0.5183238

0.456763225

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

5

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.7969567

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

5

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-10.6

11

0.2490692

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

5

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

2

4

0.5508525

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

6

3

0.6493055

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9873493

1

Utah

Cooke

Herbert

0

5

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

Brock

-34

12

0.0148954

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

-0.7

10

0.4821591

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

0

5

0.5

-1

0

15.6476

0.5192156

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

6.7

3

0.7498796

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-17.5

31

0.0391414

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

McMahon

-0.6

20

0.4759312

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

10

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-6

24

0.2730277

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-12

28

0.1136462

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

1

7

0.5400714

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.7

9

0.5280741

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

10

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-4.8

23

0.3145673

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-25

32

0.0059459

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

10

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Akin

-6

27

0.2730277

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

9

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

2.5

5

0.5992993

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

1

0.9205218

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

5.7

4

0.716846

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-38

33

6.583E-05

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-11.3

27

0.1277831

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-7.5

26

0.225244

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

5

0.6925417

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-3.6

22

0.358598

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-14.5

30

0.0722968

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

10

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Clayton

Corker

0

10

0.5

1

Texas

Sadler

Cruz

0

10

0.5

1

Utah

Howell

Hatch

0

10

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

10

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

-0.6

20

0.4759312

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

29

0.0871869

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

0

10

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

7.8

2

0.7837104

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

7

0.5400714

1

0

9.93902

0.4216185

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Ellington

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.881027

Arkansas 2

Rule

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.919978

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.9112877

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Paton

-3

3

0

-5

-5

-1.7

86

0.405616

Arizona 5

Morgan

Adams

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.919978

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

-10

-5

-10

-4.9

102

0.2455965

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3367033

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

-15

-1

-10

-10

-10

-7.7

110

0.1396726

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

80

0.4775925

California 9

McNerney

Gill

-9

-2

-5

-5

-10

-5.3

104

0.2282539

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7129316

California 16

Costa

Whelan

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

109

0.1492527

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

46

0.8231016

California 23

Phillips

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9616534

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

91

0.3065081

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.4110722

California 31

Dutton

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

30

0.8865215

California 36

Ruiz

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

38

0.8571816

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

-4

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4

96

0.2870684

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

106

0.199627

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

76

0.5447445

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7032846

Colorado 4

Shaffer

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9240743

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

70

0.6213709

Connecticut 5

Esty

Roraback

-3

-2

-10

-5

-5

-4.7

100

0.2545261

Florida 2

Lawson

Southerland

0

4

5

10

10

5.8

48

0.7924226

Florida 9

Grayson

Long

0

-3

-10

-5

-10

-5.6

105

0.215712

Florida 26

Garcia

Rivera

0

4

15

15

5

7.8

37

0.8634257

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.881027

Florida 13

Ehrlich

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

35

0.8753472

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

Buchanan

0

5

10

5

5

5

51

0.7588044

Florida 18

Murphy

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6213709

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

17

0.9157169

Florida 22

Frankel

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

96

0.2870684

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

10

5

5

5

5

51

0.7588044

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

108

0.1626938

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

99

0.2590539

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

89

0.3265082

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

77

0.5335892

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6529801

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

5

-1.2

82

0.4330592

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

54

0.7317672

Indiana 8

Crooks

Bucshon

0

7

5

10

15

7.4

40

0.8507473

Iowa 1

Braley

Lange

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

114

0.1305194

Iowa 2

Loebsack

Archer

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

111

0.1365743

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

69

0.6213709

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7032846

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.7

94

0.3015939

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-12

-3

-10

-10

-15

-8.8

117

0.1081674

Maryland 1

Rosen

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

3

0.9388772

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

-2

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.6

107

0.1768984

Massachusetts 9

Keating

Sheldon

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.080022

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-7

0

-5

-5

-3.4

90

0.3164411

Missouri 2

Koenen

Wagner

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.919978

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

5

2.6

66

0.6425489

Michigan 3

Pestka

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

35

0.8753472

Michigan 7

Haskell

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

25

0.9019132

Michigan 11

Taj

Bentivolio

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

50

0.7674762

Minnesota 1

Walz

Quist

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1081674

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8441222

Minnesota 3

Barnes

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

27

0.8969624

Minnesota 6

Graves

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.9112877

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.4110722

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Byberg

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

114

0.1305194

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.8373062

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

5

4.4

54

0.7317672

New Jersey 5

Gussen

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

8

0.9280089

New Jersey 6

Pallone

Little

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0682148

New Jersey 7

Chivukula

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.9112877

New Jersey 8

Sires

Karczewski

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0611228

New York 2

Falcone

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8918326

New York 3

Israel

Labate

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.080022

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

4

0

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

87

0.3574511

New York 4

McCarthy

Becker

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0887123

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

15

5

5

10

10

7.5

39

0.8539882

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

3

2

0

0

5

1.7

73

0.594384

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

17

-1

0

0

5

2.5

67

0.6372925

New York 22

Lamb

Hanna

0

3

10

5

15

6.6

46

0.8231016

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

-12

1

-5

-5

-5

-4

96

0.2870684

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

95

0.2967154

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

103

0.2411956

New York 23

Shinagawa

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

30

0.8865215

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

0

5

2.4

68

0.63201

Nebraska 2

Ewing

Terry

6

6

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.9354068

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

0

0

5

0.6

77

0.5335892

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

83

0.4110722

New Mexico 1

Grisham

Arnold-Jones

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

119

0.1030376

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

12

0.919978

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

75

0.5558645

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

6

-2

-10

-10

-5

-4.8

101

0.2500401

North Carolina 2

Wilkins

Ellmers

16

2

15

15

15

11

3

0.9388772

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

19

11

0

5

-5

4.1

56

0.7176988

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

-4

12

5

5

5

5

51

0.7588044

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

30

0.8865215

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

12

0.919978

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

24

0.9043222

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7129316

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8302992

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-2

4

0

0

5

1.6

74

0.5889278

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

48

0.7924226

Oregon 1

Bonamici

Morgan

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.080022

Oregon 5

Schrader

Thompson

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1030376

Pennsylvania 3

Eaton

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

18

0.9112877

Pennsylvania 4

Perkinson

Perry

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1365743

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8441222

Pennsylvania 7

Badey

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.8441222

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6529801

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

0

-5

-0.6

81

0.4664108

Pennsylvania 11

Stilp

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9240743

Pennsylvania 15

Daugherty

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

23

0.9066874

Pennsylvania 18

Maggi

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

25

0.9019132

Pennsylvania 17

Cartwright

Cummings

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

111

0.1365743

South Carolina 7

Tinubu

Rice

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

9

0.9240743

South Dakota 1

Varilek

Noem

1

10

15

15

15

11.1

2

0.9405569

Tennessee 5

Cooper

Staats

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0887123

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

Doherty

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

91

0.3065081

Texas 10

Cadien

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

7

0.9317852

Texas 14

Lampson

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

18

0.9112877

Texas 23

Gallego

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

69

0.6213709

Texas 34

Vela

Bradshaw

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0887123

Texas 35

Doggett

Narvaiz

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1030376

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-17

13

0

0

-5

-0.1

79

0.4943953

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7129316

Virginia 11

Connolly

Perkins

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

124

0.0933126

Washington 1

Delbene

Kostar

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

91

0.3065081

Washington 6

Kilmer

Driscoll

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1030376

Washington 2

Larsen

Matthews

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1030376

Washington 3

Haugen

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8918326

Washington 10

Heck

Muri

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.080022

West Virginia 1

Thorn

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

5

0.9354068

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Snuffer

-28

6

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

116

0.1134785

Wisconsin 3

Kind

Boland

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0842831

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

63

0.6632967

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.6835589